Download PowerPoint 簡報 - Supply Chain Risk Leadership Council

TSMC Property
SCRLC #6 Meeting
RM
TSMC
June - 2008
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Outline:
 Foundry’s next Challenges
 Supply Chain Risk in Asia
 Some Economic Studies of Asia
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Foundry’s next Challenges
 The foundry market segment is now an integral and
symbiotic part of the overall semiconductor supply
chain
 The foundry business model exerts a positive and
important influence on the health of the overall IC
industry
 The foundry segment must support the IC industry
to maintain, or increase, historic growth rates
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Semiconductor Industry Revenues
World - Wide Semiconductor Revenue (US$B)
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1000
100%
16%
6%
100
10
1
2007
0.1
0.01
0.001
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
What are the key challenges, and business
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opportunities to provide for future growth?
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Foundry Revenue/Total IC Revenue (%)
Increasing Foundry Revenue Impact
40
35
Impact Revenue
30
25
Impact Revenue:
Revenue from
finished products
derived from
foundry wafers
20
15
Direct Revenue
10
5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
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Foundry impact revenue will rise to close to 40%
of overall semiconductor revenue by 2012
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Escalating Costs by Technology
Node
• Design costs
 9 times cost for N65 than 0.18 m
 5 times cost for N65 than 0.13 m
• R&D cost
 10 times cost for N65 than 0.25 m
 14 times cost for N32 than 0.25 m
• Wafer Fab. cost
 around twice for N32 than N90
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Continuing R&D and Capital
Investment
 Foundries will continue to be leaders in
introduction of advanced process technology
 Manufacturing capacity will grow
 Collaboration with equipment vendors is
important to contain costs
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New Foundry-Customer Relationship
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Contribution %
Traditional Segregated Model
Foundry
Process Development
Customer
Foundry
IC Design
IC Production
Contribution %
Deeper Partnership - from Concept to Production
Customer
Foundry
Process R&D and
Technology Definition
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Foundry
IC Design and
System Development
Product Ramp
and Global SCM
Supply Chain Risk Map in Asia
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Severity
Risk rating
Likelihood
1
5
2
3
Nature disasters
3
Regulatory risk
2
Terrorism
Quality and counterfeiting
Pandemics
Ethical risks
Social risks
Fraud and corruption
Note: Likelihood: Sum(% of occasional,frequent and very frequent)
Severity: Sum(% of severe and catastrophic)
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(Source: 62 companies based in Asia, with firms in China, Marsh Survey 2006)
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Infrastructure
risks
Financial risk
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1
4
Infrastructure Risk
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 Infrastructure is less developed in Asia
 Many respondents were not satisfied with the local
infrastructure situation
 To meet expected infrastructure services needs, East
Asia would have to spend $165 billion a year over the
next five years – or roughly 6.2 percent of its GDP
annually ??? – on electricity, telecommunications,
water and sanitation, and major transport networks
[Source: World Bank, 2005 (Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure)]
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Nature Disaster
 Asia experiences the greatest regional number of
natural catastrophes and fatalities globally
 Major natural disasters that may cause supply
chain disruption
 Marsh’s Asia survey shows that only 28% of
respondents have fully prepared for natural
disasters
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Economic Study of Asia
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Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Unit：USA dollars
Year
Taiwan
China
USA
Japan
Singapore
1980
2,397
307
12,080
9,184
4,853
1985
3,314
290
17,363
11,303
6,532
1990
8,132
354
22,660
24,606
12,234
Year Taiwan China
1995
12,906
625
27,374
41,823
24,132
2007
2000
14,519
941
34,463
36,742
23,079
2005
15,714
1,761
41,468
35,565
26,968
2006
16,073
2,110
43,570
34,125
30,160
Unit ：USA dollars
GDP PPP Per Capita
30,126
USA
Japan Singapore
5,292 45,845 33,577 49,714
Source: IMF, 2007
Source：IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS), Taiwan
** Compared with 2020/2005, Asia economic to world economic
will increase 8%. From 35%(2005) to 43%(2020). It’s Increasingly
important to world economic.
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(Source:Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU)
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
In 2020, will be the
largest economic state around the
world. GDP will be 30 trillion USD.
Which is higher than 2nd highest GDP
state, USA with 29 trillion USD.
China,
(Source:Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU)
Some Challenges to China
 Inflation
 Rising in energy price
 The unequal distribution
of wealth
(Source: Interviewed with Yifu Lin,
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CommonWealth, May 2008)
The unequal distribution of
wealth in China
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 Financial structure
- Unequal loan/remedy of banks to large and small
enterprise
 Resource prices
- Excess profits from low tax and fees to new entrance
of mining companies
 Monopolistic Enterprise
- Excess profits of state-own enterprise from regulated
monopolistic protection, cause unfair salary compared
with non-monopolized enterprise
Note: Per capita GDP at 8 super cities of China will be 20 to 25K
USD at 2025
(Mckinsy Global Research Report)
(Source: Interviewed with Yifu Lin, CommonWealth, May 2008)
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