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OECD World Forum onon Key Indicators OECD World Forum Key Indicators Statistics, Statistics,Knowledge Knowledgeand andPolicy Policy Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 1 Indicators and Social Accounting for 21st Century Social Policy Gosta Esping-Andersen OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 2 Table 1. Poverty in Child Families. Cross-sectional Headcounts and Dynamics. Kaplan-Mayer Survival Functions, 1994-2001 Rate of Poverty Persistency: Poverty Year One Year Two Three+ years (2000) Denmark 2.4 .410 .282 .026 France 7.3 .590 .418 .128 Germany 9.0 .490 .303 .091 Italy 16.6 .635 .411 .161 Spain 13.3 .597 .369 .120 U.K. 15.4 .494 .287 .110 U.S. 21.9 .814 .704 .576 __________________________________________________ Wilcoxson test for equality Pr>Chi2 = .0001 (Chi2=26.53) Source: ECHP, waves 1994-2001, and for the U.S., the PSID, 1993-1997. Poverty rates are from LIS. OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 3 Table 2. Total GDP Use for Social Protection • • • Swenden Germany USA Sweden/USA ratio Gross Expenditure 35.7 29.2 15.8 2.2 Net expenditurer 1) 28.5 27.3 17.5 1.6 Net Private Expenditure 2) 2.2 1.6 8.1 Net Total Expenditure 30.6 28.9 25.6 1.2 Table 2. Total GDP Use for Social Protection 1) after tax claw-backs and other indirect taxes, plus tax subsidies 2)includes mandatory and voluntary plans, but excludes out-of-pocket payments Source: W. Adema, Net social expenditure. Labour Market and Social Policy-Occasional Papers, no.52. OECD (August, 2001). OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 4 TABLE 3. DYNAMIC ACCOUNTING OF THE COSTS AND RETURNS FROM DAY CARE PROVISION Assumptions: • Mother, at age 30-35, has two kids • she does not interupt employment (except one year maternity). • Her wage is 67% of APW, and • she will continue working until age 60. • We apply 1.5%p.a. ‘Mincer estimate’ of cummulative loss for 5 year interuption D.Kr. Cost to government: 2 years in creche (x2) and 3 years in pre-school (x2) Total Gains to mother: (a) 5 years with full earnings and (b) life-time wage gain from no interuption Total Gains to Exchequer: additional revenue from (a) and additional revenue from (b) Total =168.000 =342.000 510.000 =800.000 =1.400.600 2.200.600 =280.000 =490.000 770.000 Net return to Exchequer On original outlay (770.000 – 510.000) 260.000 OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004 5