Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
GUATEMALA: a country overview Mario Marroquín Rivera February 2010 GENERAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL NAME: CAPITAL: AERA: POPULATION: OFFICIAL LANGUAGE: OFFICIAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE Republic of Guatemala Guatemala 108,889 Km2 13,667,815 (projected for 2008) Spanish El Quetzal US$ 1.00 = Q 8.10 (Feb. 2010) GUATEMALA: INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK GUATEMALAN GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVE BRANCH LEGISLATIVE BRANCH - Presidency - Congress - Vice Presidency - Congressmen and congresswomen elected - State Departments by the people by universal suffrage - The Cabinet (Secretaries and Vicesecretaries) - The Departments JUDICIAL BRANCH - Supreme Court of Justice - President of the Judicial Branch DECENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT ENTITIES: - Constitutional Court - Supreme Electoral Court - Office of the Attorney General - Office of the Public Prosecutor GUATEMALA: ECONOMIC INFORMATION MACROECONOMIC DATA GDP 2008(in millions of US$): 35,729.0 GDP per capita 2008: 2,627.1 GDP GROWTH RATE (preliminary for 2008) : 4.3% INFLATION (January 2009): 7.88% NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (in milliones of US$, to January 2009): 4,758.5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ENEI 2004): 3.13% Source: BANGUAT-FMI GUATEMALA:GDP GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION GUATEMALA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2000 – 2008* GUATEMALA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR 2008 6.3 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 6% 5.4 4.0 3.9 AGRICULTURE 11% MINES AND QUARRIES 2% PRIVATE SERVICES 16% MANUFACTURING 19% 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 LEASING OF HOMES 10% FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 3% TRANSPORTATION 9% POWER AND WATER 3% TRADE 15% CONSTRUCTION 6% *Preliminary Source: BANGUAT Despite the world economic downturn GDP growth was still positive in 2009 and 2010 forecast is favourable GUATEMALA: AVERAGE ACTIVE AND PASSIVE INTEREST RATES (in foreign currency, to October of each year) - percentage ACTIVE INTEREST RATE 9.38 7.63 4.01 2001 3.68 2002 6.88 2.97 2003 6.89 3.06 2004 PASSIVE INTEREST RATE 7.23 3.33 2005 7.64 3.95 7.66 8.13 3.92 3.78 2006 2007 Source: BANGUAT 2008 GUATEMALA: INFLATION RATE (to January of each year) 9.04 8.85 8.39 8.08 5.27 2000 6.22 6.05 2001 7.88 2002 6.20 6.21 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: BANGUAT 2009 GUATEMALA: EXCHANGE RATE (to January of each year) 8.02 7.95 7.72 7.72 7.78 7.75 7.74 7.60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 7.59 2007 7.63 2008 2009 Source: BANGUAT It is important to point out that the exchange rate in Guatemala is: flexible, administrated and corresponds to the market price. GUATEMALA: SOUND AND SUSTAINABLE MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT GUATEMALA: CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT GDP percentage / 2000 - 2009 6.1 6.5 GUATEMALA: FISCAL DEFICIT GDP percentage/ 2000 - 2009 2.6 6.1 2.1 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 *Preliminary **Projected Source: BANGUAT GUATEMALA: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (in millions of US$) 837.8 723.5 591.6 508.3 263.3 2003 296.0 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008** *Preliminary **Projected Source: BANGUAT GUATEMALA: FOREIGN TRADE 2002 – 2008* EXPORTS IMPORTS 13,575.8 14,545.0 11,914.5 10,498.7 7,658.8 8,126.9 9,477.6 7,764.9 6,897.7 4,162.1 2002 Source: BANGUAT 4,459.4 2003 5,033.5 2004 5,381.0 2005 6,012.8 2006 2007 2008* *Preliminary GUATEMALA: A DIVERSIFIED MARKET Exports by destination (in millions of US$) JANUARY 2009 100% = US$ 600.8 million JANUARY 2000 100% = US$ 294.7 million US$ 15.4 5.2% US$ 48.7 16.5% UNITED STATES OF AMERICA US$ 183.3 30.5% CENTRAL AMERICA US$ 62.6 21.2% Source: BANGUAT US$ 168.0 57.0% US$ 244.9 40.8% EUROZONE OTHERS US$ 18.3 3.0% US$ 154.3 25.7% GUATEMALA: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS Effective Approval process Negotiation process GUATEMALA: RECIPROCAL INVESTMENT PROMOTION AND PROTECTION AGREEMENTS Effective Approval process Pending subscription Negotiation process GUATEMALA: BUSINESS CLIMATE GUATEMALA: COUNTRY RATINGS AGENCY FITCH Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 MOODY'S BB+ (Stable) BB+ (Stable) BB+ (Stable) Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 (Stable) (Positive) (Positive) Ba2 (Stable) S&P BB- (Stable) OCDE BB- (1) 6 BB (Stable) BB (Positive) BB (Stable)* 5 5 5 *Info to Nov 2008 Source: Fitch, Moody’s, S&P, OCDE The main rating agencies have assigned a Stable Outlook for Guatemala throughout 2008. GUATEMALA: SOCIAL DATA GUATEMALA: DEMOGRAPHICS Age groups Total for the Republic: Percentile distribution of the total population by sex, as per five year age groups – year 2007 80 y más 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20 15 10 5 0 Percentile 5 10 15 20 GUATEMALA: DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION: ANNUAL GROWTH: MALE POPULATION: FEMALES POPULATION: RURAL POPULATION: URBAN POPULATION: 13,667,815 2.46% 6,673,533 7,180,208 53.9% 46.1% Source: INE HDI VALUE (2005): ILLITERACY RATE (% - 2006): LIFE EXPECTANCY RATE ( years - 2006): MORTALITY RATE (for every/1000 inhabitants) - 2008: INFANT MORTALITY RATE (for every/1000 births) - 2006: 0.689 23.9 68 5.19 41 Source: HDI- UNDP, INE GUATEMALA: EVOLUTION OF SOME SOCIAL INDICATORS GUATEMALA: ELECTRIFICATION GROWTH (%) GUATEMALA: INFANT MORTALITY RATE (for every thousand births) 100 150 80 60 100 40 20 50 0 2007* 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 0 1950 1955 * 2007 y 2008 MEM proyections 1960 1965 1970 1975 GUATEMALA: NET ENROLLMENT RATE (%) 100 80 60 40 20 2000 2001 Pre-Primaria Kinder Source:MEM, INE y Mineduc 2002 2003 ElemenPrimaria tary 2004 Junior Básico High 2005 2006 2007 High School Diversificado 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 GUATEMALA: SECTORIAL INFORMATION GUATEMALA: AIRPORT SYSTEM • 2 International Airports: La Aurora and Mundo Maya Under OACI regulations Airbus 320/340 Boeing 737 Embraer 110 • La Aurora Airport: Modernization plan Category 1, according to the FAA Capacity of 4 million passengers a year 160 weekly flights Area of 115 thousand square meters 98 double counters/ordinary use a conveyor belt area of 500 linear meters 24 migratory control points Capable of attending 22 Aircrafts, simultaneously. • 17 Local Airports Mundo Maya La Aurora International Airport GUATEMALA: PORT SYSTEM Guatemala has access to both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, where 78% of the country’s foreign trade load is managed. The National Port System has specialized terminals, facilities, certifications and the necessary services to offer a safe and efficient port system, allowing access to conventional vessels, container vessels, “roll on /roll off”, Refrigerated vessels, bulk product transportation (solids and liquids) vessels and cruise lines. On the Atlantic we have: Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla and Puerto Barrios, at a distance of 297 KM from Guatemala city; and on the Pacific: Puerto Quetzal, at a distance of 98 Km from the capital city. GUATEMALA: 2007 FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE BY PORT 297 Km LAND, 21% SEA, 78% 98 Km AIR, 1% GUATEMALA: ROADWAY SYSTEM ROAD SURFACE TYPE ASPHALT DIRT ROAD RURAL ROADS TOTAL NONREGISTERED ROAD SYSTEM TOTAL KILOMETERS 6,418.11 5,126.90 3,642.69 15,187.70 9,173.36 % 42.26% 33.76% 23.98% 100.00% 60.00%* Source: MICIVI *of the registered network •Guatemala has a modern and growing road infrastructure network connecting its different regions, ports and boarders with Mexico and Central America. •The State of Guatemala is working on a Public-Private Participation or Alliance legislation, Law P3, seeking to improve and expand the ports, airports, roads and, thus, the national infrastructure. GUATEMALA: TELECOMMUNICATIONS GUATEMALA OFFERS: A modern legal framework regarding investments: •One of the most flexible Telecommunications laws in Latin America. •One of the most competitive sectors at the Latin American level. •Redundancy: 99.98% (SLA) World-class international stakeholders: •Telefónica •Millicom / Digicel •Telmex, among others Increased coverage •500,000 (1995) to 13.3 million (2007) •Mobile: 65% annual growth vrs 45% for Latino America •Competitive rate L.A.: Cost Calls to the US and Canada Calls to Central America Local calls Guatemala El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica US $0.09 US $0.10 US $0.84 US $0.17 US $0.45 US $0.34 US $0.35 US $0.40 US $0.35 US $0.40 US $0.02 US $0.02 US $0.02 US $0.02 US $0.01 Source: Telefónica 2007 GUATEMALA: ELECTRIC POWER SERVICE GUATEMALA OFFERS: A modern legal framework for investments: • Electrical Power Law. • 75% of power is privately generated World-class international actors: • TAMPA • Duke Energy • IBERDROLA • UNIÓN FENOSA • ENEL Supply increase • Total: 700 MW (1995) to 1,800MW (2006) CORPORATE RATE: FOR BILLING PURPOSES RESOLUTION NUMBER Consumer charges (Q/user-month) Power charge (Q/kWh) Exchange Rate: US$1 x Q8.08 Feb 09 - Apr 09 CNEE - 25 – 2008 8.374416 $ 1.270981 $ IN US$ 0.95 0.16 Source: CNEE GUATEMALA: ELECTRIC POWER SERVICE The Regulated Market consists of the following: • Regarding the demand: All those users with a power demand of less than 100 kW. • Regarding the supply: Authorized distributors within their coverage area The Wholesale Market has the following characteristics: • Generators with over 5MW of power. • Distributors with a minimum of 15,000 users • • • Transporters with a minimum transportation capacity of 10 MW . Marketers buying or selling blocks of energy relating to a Stable Offer of at least 2MW. Large users with a maximum demand of over 100kW of power. Local Power Generation Internal Consumption Exports Imports Average SPOT Price Maximum Demand Load Factor Firm Offer 2007 – 2008 (Sugar Cane Harvest) Firm Offer 2007 – 2008 (Non Harvest season) Losses (Main and Secondary) 7,928.62 7.510.45 131.88 8.12 89.8 1,443.43 61.73 1,829.55 1,759.80 294.4 GWh GWh GWh GWh US$ / MWh MW % MW MW GWh GUATEMALA: GREATEST POWER CONNECTIVITY IN THE MESOAMERICAN REGION Guatemala El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama TOTAL Santa Elena 1240 km 286 km 270 km 310 km 493 km 150 km 2749 kms Belice City Tapachula Pepesca Rio lindo El cajon Los Brillantes Suyapa Nejapa Ahuachapan 15 de setiembre Pavana Leon Guate este •SIEPAC • Guatemala – Mexico Interconnection 200 MW • Guatemala – Belize Interconnection 50MW •Guatemala-Salvador Interconnection 200MW •Geothermal Power 200 MW Ticuantepe Cañas Parrita Rio claro Veladero GUATEMALA: KEY MESSAGES MESSAGE 1: Guatemala is the main economic partner in Central America • Guatemala is the largest economy in Central America (1/3 of Central America GDP). YEAR 2008 GDP (billions de US$) EL GUATEMALA SALVADOR HONDURAS NICARAGUA 38.9 21.8 13.7 6.5 COSTA RICA 31.5 PANAMA 22.8 SOURCE: IMF (estimated) MESSAGE 2: Sound macroeconomics and public debt management • Outstanding record of debt service. Never has restructured obligations to private creditors. • Solid credit and debt indicators. • Excellent working relationship with multilateral institutions (IMF, IBRD, IDB, CABEI). • Sustained and stable economic growth over the past 15 years. • One digit inflation and a stable currency, as result of disciplined monetary policy. • Proven commitment to fiscal discipline • Controlled and sustainable Current Account Deficit. • Increasing level of international monetary reserves. • Reserves level fully cover the country’s external debt. MESSAGE 3: Improving democratic Institutions • Supreme Electoral Tribunal has conducted 12 transparent electoral events. • Constitutional and Supreme Court of Justice as fundament for the rule of law. • Plural Legislative with democratic and vigorous debate. • Human Rights office playing a fundamental and recognized role in the institutional structure of the country. • Important reforms in security and justice area included in the national public agenda. MESSAGE 4: Ethnic and social agenda as regards the national affairs • Active participation of ethnic groups in local government (more than 100 indigene mayor) and in development council system. • Political instruments for ethnic and social dialogue. • Quick, peaceful, orderly reduction of the army forces. • Increased social spending. • Establishment of social protection programs MESSAGE 5: Country performance is comparable to other global players - 2008 GUATEMALA BRAZIL COLOMBIA EGYPT PERU ROMANIA OCDE Classification 5 3 4 4 3 3 GDP Growth Rate - % - (avg. 19952008) 3.8 3.0 3.2 5.3 4.7 3.5 Fiscal Deficit - % of GDP - (avg. 19952008) 1.6 2.1 2.6 6.9 2.1 2.1 Inflation - % - (avg. 1995-2008) 7.5 11.4 10.5 5.9 4.5 34.8 External Debt – billions of US$ - 2008 4.4 272.9 48.5 32.3 36.7 21.0 External Debt - % of GDP - 2008 11.2 182.4 22.7 16.2 29.2 11.2 International Reserves- billions of US$ - 2008 4.7 188.1 23.2 33.8 30.6 28.3 International Reserves - % of External Debt - 2008 106.8 68.9 102.2 208.6 14.8 251.8 Source: Bancos Centrales - IMF GUATEMALA: A COUNTRY RESILIENCE TESTED EVENTS OVERALL PERFORMANCE • Stabilization and Structural Adjustment • 1991-95 • Political events: “self coup” aborted, parliamentary elections • 1993-94 • General Elections: orderly transition • 1995 • Peace Agreements • 1996 • Asian Crisis • 1997 • Referendum: Constitution reforms • 1998 • Hurricane Mitch • 1998 • General Elections: orderly transition • 1999-2000 • Teacher’s strike • 2000 • Confrontation: Public S.-Private S. • 2001-03 State policies adopted Economic Growth 1996-2006 • CAFTA negotiation • Hurricane Stan • positive and sustained (av. 3.3%) • without volatility • growing at per capita level (last US$ 2,513.00) • low fiscal deficit (av. 1.6%) • single digit inflation, stable (av. 7.4%) Stabiility and macroeconomic strenth 96-06 •Stable exchange rate (last Q7.60/US$) • increasing level of reserves (last US$ 4 bill) • diversified exports • sustained current account deficit (av. 4.6%) •the lowest in the Hemisphere •11.2% of GDP Moderate External Debt • 68.0% of exports of goods and services • restructuring: local currency increase percentage (57.5% set in 2005 and 75.2% may 2006)10 year term. • child malnutrition (35% to 22%) Improving Social Indicators 90-05 • General Elections: orderly transition • trade openness (reduction of 3.62% in average tariff /1995-2005) • fiscal discipline • price stability • free capital repatriation • increased social spending • administrative decentralization • Peace Agreement • 2003-04 • schooling (71% to 93%) • child mortality (7.3 to 3.8 /mil) • Basic housing • 2003-05 • 2005 Institutional Improvement • modern legislation and institutions to combat money laundering • institutionalized electoral system • press freedom • reduction of the army • democratic debate in Congress • Human Rights institutionalism Ethno Cultural Considerations: Guatemala with more than 23 ethnic groups (and policies of inclusion, diversity of languages, geographical ubication and economic interests) isn’t similar to Peru, Bolivia or Ecuador M.R.M.R. & M.A.G.L. 2006