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Chapter 12 Supplementary Notes GNP = Expenditure on a Country’s Goods and Services NationalY income = value of production = Cd + Id + Gd + EX expenditure on production = (C-Cf) + (I-If) + (G-Gf) + EX = C + I + G + EX – (Cf + If +Gf) = C + I + G + EX – IM = C + I + G + CA Domestic expenditure Net expenditure by foreigners National Income Accounts: GNP (cont.) Imports and Exports As a Fraction of GDP 50% 45% Percentage of GDP 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Canada imports France Germany Italy Japan Mexico UK exports Imports and exports as a percentage of GDP by country, 2000. Source: OECD US GNP and GDP • Gross domestic product measures the final value of all goods and services that are produced within a country in a given time period. • GNP = GDP + factor payments from foreign countries - factor payments to foreign countries • GNP = GDP + net factor income from abroad Expenditure and Production in an Open Economy CA = EX – IM = Y – (C + I + G ) • When production > domestic expenditure, exports > imports: current account > 0, trade balance > 0 – when a country exports more than it imports, it earns more income from exports than it spends on imports – net foreign wealth is increasing • When production < domestic expenditure, exports < imports: current account < 0, trade balance < 0 – when a country exports less than it imports, it earns less income from exports than it spends on imports – net foreign wealth is decreasing surplus US Current Account As a Percentage of GDP, 1960–2004 2% 1% 0% -1% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 deficit -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce US Current Account, 1960– 2004 billions of current dollars 100 0 -100 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce US Current Account and Net Foreign Wealth, 1977–2003 Saving and the Current Account • National saving (S) = national income (Y) that is not spent on consumption (C) or government purchases (G). Y–C–G = (Y – C – T) + (T – G) S = Sp + Sg • National saving = private saving + govt saving How Is the Current Account Related to National Saving? CA = Y – (C + I + G ) CA = (Y – C – G ) – I CA = S – I current account = national saving – investment current account = net foreign investment Note: I is domestic investment • A country that exports more than it imports invests in foreign countries (by lending the CA surplus to foreigners). How Is the Current Account Related to National Saving? (cont.) CA = S – I or I = S – CA • Countries can finance investment either by saving or by acquiring foreign funds equal to the current account deficit. – a current account deficit or negative net foreign investment implies a financial capital inflow (through international borrowing). How Is the Current Account Related to National Saving? (cont.) CA = Sp + Sg – I = Sp – GD – I • GD, Government deficit (= G – T), is negative govt saving • A high government deficit causes a negative current account balance, all other things equal. Inverse Relationship Between Public Saving and Current Account? US current account and public saving relative to GDP, 1960-2004 Percent of GDP 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 current account 1985 1990 1995 2000 public saving Source: Congressional Budget Office, US Department of Commerce Balance of Payments Accounts • A country’s balance of payments accounts record its payments to and its receipts from foreigners. • Record all international transactions in goods, services, assets Services: travel, transportation, royalties, etc. Assets: bank loans, deposits, stocks, bonds, etc. US Balance of Payments Accounts, 2003 in Billions of Dollars US Balance of Payments Accounts, 2003 in Billions of Dollars (cont.) 3 Broad Accounts • The balance of payment accounts are separated into 3 broad accounts: – current account: accounts for flows of goods and services (imports and exports). – financial account: accounts for flows of financial assets (financial capital). – capital account: flows of special categories of assets (capital), typically non-market, non-produced, or intangible assets like debt forgiveness, copyrights and trademarks. Credit and Debit • Double-entry bookkeeping: Each international transaction enters the BoP accounts twice: once as a credit (+) and once as a debit (-). • Credit: sale of domestic goods, services, assets to foreigners • Debit: purchase of foreign goods, services, assets from foreigners Some useful tips • Credit: we sell to foreigners • Debit: we buy from foreigners • Treat payment as if we sell the financial assets (e.g., deposits). Receipts are treated as if our purchase of financial assets. • The payment part is recorded on the other side of the BoP table. • Exceptions: unilateral transfers, debt forgiveness Example 1 • You import a DVD of Japanese anime by using your debit card. • The Japanese producer of anime deposits the funds in its bank account in San Francisco. The bank credits the account by the amount of the deposit. DVD purchase –$30 (current account) Credit (“sale”) of bank account by bank (financial account) +$30 Example 2 • You invest in the Japanese stock market by buying $500 in Sony stock. • Sony deposits your funds in its Los Angeles bank account. The bank credits the account by the amount of the deposit. Purchase of stock –$500 (financial account) Credit (“sale”) of bank account by bank (financial account) +$500 Example 3 • US banks forgive a $100 M debt owed by the government of Argentina through debt restructuring. • US banks who hold the debt thereby reduce the debt by crediting Argentina's bank accounts. Debt forgiveness: non-market transfer –$100 M (capital account) Credit (“sale”) of bank account by bank (financial account) +$100 M More Terms • Private financial transactions include direct investment, portfolio investment (security purchases), and bank claims and liabilities. • Financial transactions are also classified either short-term or long-term. Long-term means maturity longer than or equal to 1 year. • “Official” means assets treated as foreign reserves. They include foreign currencies, gold, Special Drawing Rights, and reserve position at the IMF. • Balance of payments = current a/c + capital a/c + non-reserve financial a/c Capital inflow and outflow • Financial (capital) inflow – Foreigners loan to domestic citizens by acquiring domestic assets. – Foreign owned (sold) assets in the domestic economy are a credit (+) – A surplus on the financial account implies net inflow of foreign capital. • Financial (capital) outflow – Domestic citizens loan to foreigners by acquiring foreign assets. – Domestically owned (purchased) assets in foreign economies are a debit (-) – A deficit on the financial account implies net outflow of foreign capital.