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ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean United Nations Development Programme Belize: Macro Socio-Economic Assessment Report of the Impact of Hurricane Dean August 2007 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The ECLAC Methodology: The post-disaster cycle ECLAC evaluation Emergency Rehabilitation and recovery of livelihoods Reconstruction/ Development ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The ECLAC Methodology: The procedure Part I Description Part II Assessment What is it? What is the Whom has it affected? Magnitude? Where? What has been done? Part III Rehabilitation and reconstruction What needs to be done? ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The ECLAC Methodology: The assessment Part 1 Social and productive sectors, infrastructure and environment Assets Income foregone Stocks Higher costs Damage Losses Part 2 Macroeconomic effects GDP Fiscal Accounts Secondary effects Balance of payments Employment At the time of the disaster Following the disaster 1 to 5 years Prices ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach Livelihood Assets H = Human Capital N = Natural Capital F = Financial Capital S = Social Capital P = Physical Capital LIVELIHOODS ASSETS In VULNERABILITY CONTEXT Influence & access H S N P F TRANSFORMING STRUCTURES AND PROCESSES LIVELIHOODS STRATEGIES order to achieve LIVELIHOODS OUTCOMES Hurricane Dean This system formed over the far eastern Atlantic on 13-Aug-07 A hurricane watch was issued for Belize City northwards to the Mexican border on 19-Aug-07 Dean had a forward speed of approx. 20 mph, so rainfall impacts were reduced significantly. Hurricane Dean Hurricane Dean made landfall at Mahahual, Mexico at 1:45AM on 21Aug-07, as a Category 5 storm with 165 mph maximum sustained winds; The system was very intense but compact, with Hurricane force winds extending outwards 35 miles, and storm force winds outwards 105 miles. Landfall ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The affected population ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The affected population Hurricane Dean affected mainly the population living in the Districts of Corozal, Orange Walk and to a lesser extent Belize (damage to Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker) Characteristics of Population Affected by the impact of Hurricane Dean by District Total Pop Country Total % 311,480 Severely Affected Pop % Affected Pop Agri 2% 20,878 100 Total % total % Corozal 36,365 11.7 3905 10.74 9,110 2.9 745 8.18 27,255 % of pop 10,685 37,703 12% % of Distri ct 9,091 613 9704 27% 11,786 872 12,658 27% 3,160 8.8 Corozal Rural Total Affected Pop 6,140 District Corozal Town Affected Pop Tourism Orange Walk 47,145 15.1 Belize 93,215 29.9 San Pedro Town 10,445 3.4 11.59 2,235 4.74 9,200 10% ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Severely Affected Population The number of persons severely affected by Hurricane Dean is estimated to be 6,140 persons – or 11% of the total population of Corozal and 5% of the population of Orange Walk. The two districts combined contain 41% of the country’s poor and 9% of the country's indigent Severely Affected Population as a consequence of Hurricane Dean Comparative look at severely affected by Dean and Porportion Poor and Indigent by District Orange Walk District % indigent % poor % severely aff Corozal 0 5 10 15 Percentage 20 25 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Vulnerability of women Women comprise some 26.8% of all Household Heads in Belize; FHH traditionally have an increased burden of care than their male counterparts due to their inability to earn similar incomes, and the necessity to meet similar needs with fewer resources; According to the Poverty Assessment (2002), economic vulnerability was high in Belize, as 36.8% of all households stated that they were experiencing financial difficulties at the time of the survey. The Orange Walk District had the highest percentage of all households with financial difficulties (53%); Women who depend on the informal economy to either support their families outright, or contribute to their family income through back yard gardens, were sorely affected by the destruction of fruit trees, vegetables, and food preparation and sales which they carried out on a daily basis to male workers in the agricultural sector; Approximately 200 women’s livelihoods, in the formal economy, was disrupted due to the impact of Dean on the papaya industry – worked as packers and in the field; Women and children are at risk of violence and depravation as male partners and supporters may turn to alcohol and other deviant behaviours as the toll of not being able to support their families, become a reality following a disaster. ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The disaster: its impact on the social and the productive sectors Summary of effects on the social sector Total Impact on the Social sector BZ$34.33 million Housing – $33,230,100.00; Education – $799,900.00; Health – $303,300.00 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The impact on the agricultural sector In 2006, the agricultural sector ( including fisheries) contribution to GDP was estimated at 15.8%, representing the single largest contributor to the economy; Exports of agricultural and related value added products represented 70.2% of total domestic exports (2006); Total damage to the agricultural sector is estimated at BZ $115.83 million. Damages to the agricultural sector by Keith (2000) amounted to BZ$124.35 million; In the affected areas the crop subsector was severely impacted accounting for 90.6% of the total damage, followed by the fisheries (8.3%) and livestock (1.1%) subsectors in that order. With respect to the crop subsector, the papaya industry was severely impacted, accounting for 58.1% of total damage to the agricultural sector, followed by sugar cane (19.7%) , corn (3.8%) and plantain (3.2%) in terms of severity of damage. ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Summary Damage to Agriculture SUB SECTOR DAMAGE L0SESS TOTAL DAMAGE/ PAPAYA 25,614,000 41,724,900 67,338,900 SUGAR CANE 8,400,000 14,419,640 22,819,640 CORN 1,988,400 2,390,360 4,378,760 PLANTAINS 1,332,500 2,351,865 3,684,365 OTHER CROPS 2,754,224 3,991,496 6,745,720 40,089,124 64,878,261 104,967,385 LIVESTOCK 943,737 272,095 1,215,832 FISHERIES 1,459,525 8,191,831 9,651,356 42,492,386 73,342,187 115,834,573 SUB-TOTAL CROPS TOTAL DAMAGE Hurricane Dean Impacts on Infrastructure Damage was primarily contained in the northern part of the country: Corozal District, Orange Walk, and San Pedro There was damage to feeder roads, building infrastructure, houses and commercial establishments Hurricane Dean Impacts The main highway system stood up well, but feeder roads and agricultural roads were badly damaged, as these are typically unpaved; Extensive damage occurred to most of the jetties on San Pedro There was significant beach erosion on the NE coast of Ambergris Caye Impact on Infrastructure Direct Damage Transportation/Roads: Bz$9.41m Electricity Generation: Bz$0.85m Water Supply: Bz$0.15m Telecommunications: Bz$0.50m Total Direct Damages Bz$10.91m Indirect Losses Transportation: Bz$0.47m Electricity Generation: Bz$0.11m Water Supply: Bz$0.08m Telecommunications: Bz$0.13m Total Indirect Losses: Bz$0.79m TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES Bz$11.7m Impact on Tourism Direct Damage Corozal and Environs: Bz$0.60m San Pedro & Caye Caulker: Bz$0.72m Total Direct Damages Bz$1.32m Indirect Losses Corozal (wages, income, revenue): Bz$0.38m San Pedro/Caye Caulker (wages, income, revenue): Bz$4.45m Visitor Spend: Bz$1.87m Dive and Adventure Tours: Bz$0.91m Busses, Tour Guides, etc.: Bz$0.44m Total Indirect Losses: Bz$8.05m TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES Bz$9.37m Impact on the Environment Direct Damage Coastal Erosion: Bz$0.50m Damage to Vegetation: Bz$6.00m Total Direct Damages Bz$6.50m Indirect Losses Damage to Seagrass Beds/Coral Reef: Bz$0.20m Water Based Pollution Clean-up: Bz$1.10m Total Indirect Losses: Bz$1.30m TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES Bz$7.80m ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The summary of the Impact US$89.5 BZ$179.03 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The macro-impact of the disaster ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Summary impact in relation to selected macroeconomic variables Total Impact as percentage of GDP 7.4 Impact as percentage of agriculture GDP 63.8 Impact as percentage of exports of goods 20.96 Impact as percentage of exports of goods and services 11.5 Impact as percentage of gross domestic investment 38.8 Impact as percentage of consumption 9.4 Impact as percentage of the public external debt stock 9.1 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Belize Real GDP growth (2004-2006) Pre- and Post-disaster scenarios 10 9 8 Pre-disaster 7 6 5 4 3 2 Post-disaster 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean BOP Effects of the disaster for 2007 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Current Account of BOP Pre-flood Post-flood ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Fiscal effects of the disaster for 2007 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Fiscal Account Pre-flood Post-flood ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean The disaster and its aftermath ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Vulnerability Poverty and its attendant ills; Rural areas are vulnerable to electricity outages and impacts to main grid; Limited training and general education of the population dependent on agriculture; Limited financial resources for investment and recovery in the agricultural sector; Limited capacity to diversify the economy; Too strong reliance on one commodity ( e.g. sugar cane); ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Vulnerability … cont’d High burden of care, of female heads of households with limited resources; Water supply in the rural area without reliable back-up capacity; Belize City remains extremely vulnerable to Storm surge; Critical infrastructure requires categorizing and hazard mapping to develop plans and policies for vulnerability reduction for Belize city; ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Strategic Mitigation approaches to advance sustainable livelihoods and development Strengthen Disaster Management capacity at the micro, meso and macro levels; Build capacity in the capture of information regarding damage and loss at the community level; Build capacity in determining the impact of siltation on the habitat of fish; Assess the risk of Belize City to extreme storm surge and to map all critical facilities; Evaluate beach erosion extents and possible effects on telecommunications cables ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Strategic Mitigation approaches cont’d Strengthen economic diversification efforts (within and outside of agriculture) to generate alternative employment opportunities and as a risk reduction strategy; Use resource boom such as receipts from oil production to reduce debt; Improve competitiveness of tourism by improved product development and branding of sub-sectors; Provide special incentives to increase the participation of youth and female producers, particularly those who are heads of households, in the economic development process; Address the relocation & or retrofitting of communities located in hazard zones; Upgrade the quality of housing and sanitation of the poor in rural and urban communities; ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Strategic Mitigation approaches… cont’d Strengthen affordable micro credit facilities (rural development investment funds); Strengthen baseline information systems especially national statistical systems producing timely and periodic data; Undertake a country-wide programme of drain cleaning ; • Facilitate BTL to move to a wireless overlay system, so that downed lines will have minimal impact for most areas across the country; • Encourage BTL to install back-up generating power at selected sites; Short term Recommendations •Support efforts of civil society to meet the basic needs of the poorest; •Provide training for the informal construction sector in risk reduction practices at community level; •Conduct an inventory of construction equipment in various districts – Min. of Works plus private contractors, to reduce vulnerability in the event of a disaster; •BEL program of vulnerability reduction should be continued and encouraged – improved standards, particularly in coastal zones; Short term recommendations Replacement of automatic recording station at Half Moon Caye – Meteorological Office BWS should be encouraged to install own generating capacity at rural pumping stations; THANK YOU