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South Eastern Europe Main economic trends and challenges Christophe de La Rochefordière DG Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission Budapest, 4-5 April 2005 1 Overview 1. Horizontal overview: key features. Some surprises…. 2. Candidate countries : Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania (and Turkey, not included). 3. Western Balkan countries : Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, former Yug. Rep. of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro and Kosovo. 2 Income levels: fairly low and comparable (except + Croatia and - Kosovo) Euro Per capita GDP (current prices and exchange rates - 2004) 6000 6195 5000 4000 3000 2526 2000 1772 1725 1929 2030 2621 1875 1000 1013 0 Albania BiH fYRoM SCG Kosovo (SCG) 3 Western Bulgaria Croatia Romania Balkans Overall solid growth… Real GDP growth % 21.2 20 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 Albania fYroM Kosovo Croatia -2.5 BiH SCG Bulgaria Romania Western Balkans -5.0 2000 2001 2002 P Projections. Sources: National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 4 2003 2004p Gradual disinflation continues… Inflation (CPI, annual average) % 70% 92.5% Albania BiH fYroM SCG Kosovo Bulgaria Croatia Romania Western Balkans Candidate Countries 45 35 25 15 5 -5 2000 2001 2002 P Projections. Sources: National authorities, IMF, EC estimates 5 2003 2004p General Government balance %4 of GDP Government balances (after grants) 3 2 1 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 0 Western Balkans P CC3 Projection. Sources : National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 6 2004 General Government balance % of GDP Government balances (after grants) 4 3 2 1 Western Balkans Candidate Countries 0 2002 P 2003 Projection. Sources : National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 7 2004 First sub-region: SEE candidate countries Main trends in Candidate countries 8 Candidates: output growth appears to converge towards 4 - 5 % GDP growth 8 % yoy 6 4 2 Bulgaria Croatia Romania 0 2000 2001 2002 9 2003 2004 Candidates: Inflation slowly approaches EU levels CPI, yearly average 50 Bulgaria 40 Croatia %, yoy Romania 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 10 2003 2004 Candidates: unemployment rates fall but remain high LFS Unemployment rate % of Labour Force 20 15 10 5 Bulgaria Croatia Romania 0 2000 2001 2002 11 2003 2004 Candidates: public deficits move towards sustainability General Government Balance 2.0 Romania Croatia Bulgaria % of GDP 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 2000 2002 2001 12 2003 2004 Candidates: public debt ratio shows mixed picture Debt ratio 80 % of GDP 60 40 20 Bulgaria Croatia Romania 0 2000 2001 2002 13 2003 2004 Candidates: current accounts and FDI FDI finances large share of current account needs in % of GDP • Bulgaria: • Croatia: • Romania: current account FDI coverage current account FDI coverage current account FDI coverage 14 - 8.0 9.1 113 % - 4.7 2.2 47 % - 7.5 6.9 92 % Candidates: challenges • Macro – monetary: trade-offs between currency appreciation and internal price adjustments • Maintain sustainable fiscal stance • Attract greenfield FDI • Increased international competition may hit candidate countries (ex: end of textiles quotas…) • Continue with unfinished reform agenda: privatisation, public enterprises restructuring, labour markets, “acquis” translation / implementation, improve the judiciary, contract enforcement, facilitate market entry / exit. 15 Candidates • Brief country review, challenges 16 Bulgaria • Maintain prudent fiscal stance • Ensure sustained foreign investment to finance current account deficit. Attract greenfield investment. Continue reforms, in particular: • Public enterprises restructuring (coal, energy, railway…). • Improve SME business environment • Improve judiciary – contract enforcement 17 Croatia • Good track record of moderate growth, low inflation and exchange rate stability • Fiscal and external imbalances call for tightening of public spending • Structural reforms need to be accelerated, in particular enterprise restructuring and privatisation • Continued public administration reform, land and cadastre, judiciary is essential 18 Croatia Particular sector challenges: • Reform of health care to stop arrears accumulation • Railway restructuring and liberalisation • State aid to shipbuilding • Restructuring of steel sector • Development of tourism 19 Romania • Macro stability : preserve momentum in disinflation, strengthen fiscal sustainability • Reduce public sector deficit: enforce financial discipline; continue energy prices adjustments; improve public enterprises’ financial performance • Deepen structural reforms : restructuring of key sectors, such as energy, mining, transport and agriculture; continue privatisation (ex: Distrigaz Nord and Sud) • Enhance business environment : progress in the functioning of the judiciary and the public administration. Implement bankruptcy law. 20 Second sub-region Main trends/challenges in the Western Balkans 21 Uneven fiscal consolidation % of 6 GDP Government balances (after grants) 2002 2003 2004 p 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Albania P BiH fYroM SCG Projection. Sources : National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 22 Kosovo Western Balkans External deficits remain fairly large … External accounts (2004p) % of GDP 40 Trade deficit Current account deficit (after grants) 30 20 10 0 Albania P BiH fYroM SCG Projection. Sources : National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 23 Kosovo Western Balkans … and FDI overall not sufficient to finance current account deficits Western Balkans - Foreign direct investment (2004p) Mio. 1,400 EUR % of6 GDP 5.0 5.2 % of GDP 1,200 Mio EUR 1,000 4 800 2.9 600 2.3 2.0 2 400 200 n.a. 0 0 Albania P BiH fYroM SCG Projection. Sources : National authorities, IMF, EC estimates. 24 Kosovo Western Balkans Despite substantial fiscal tightening, current account did not clearly respond General Government and Current Account balances, 2004p (after grants) Albania BiH fYroM SCG Kosovo Western Balkans 5 1.0 0 -1.7 -0.1 -5 -5.5 -5.8 -2.7 -6.0 -10 -7.0 -11.6 -15 -11.6 Current account -18.5 General Government -20 25 -18.0 Structural reforms: progress has been achieved ... • The core legislative framework of a market economy is in place throughout the region • Price and trade liberalisation well advanced • Privatisation is continuing in the region 26 ... but much remains to be done • Need to pursue fiscal consolidation • Reform of the public administration and the management of public finances • Enterprise restructuring / privatisation • Access to finance for SMEs • Rule of law, enforcement the weak point • Reform of the cadastre and clear ownership rights • Size of the informal economy 27 Western Balkans Brief country review: key features and critical challenges 28 Albania • The economy has regularly posted high growth figures (above 6%) • Slow but steady fiscal adjustment. • Low inflation and stable currency, but high external imbalances • Weak state and considerable structural problems 29 Albania • Privatisation regained momentum in 1994 : sale of Savings Bank to Raiffeisen Bank. Privatisation of Albtelekom and ARMO (fuel company) underway. • Banking sector almost 100% private. Increased confidence in banking sector. • Weak points: Commercial legislation enforcement. Fraud and corruption. Size of informal economy. 30 Albania Albania - Current account balance Goods, services and income % of GDP 15 Remittances 12.8 11.9 Official transfers Current account 12.6 12.3 11.9 10 5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 0 -5 -6.2 -7.4 -10 -7.5 -7.6 -9.0 -15 -20 -19.3 -18.9 -20.2 -21.4 -19.4 -25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p p Source: National authorities, IMF and EC estimates 31 Projections Bosnia and Herzegovina • Growth resuming in 2004 (around 5%) • Low inflation (below 1%) • Challenging external trade and current account deficits. Recent increases in FDI • Drastic fiscal consolidation in 2001-2003. Close to balanced budget 2004 • Recent progress with structural reforms (privatisation, indirect tax authority…) 32 Bosnia and Herzegovina Remaining impediments to growth and investment • Fragile institutional setting • Risk perception • Size of the informal economy + corruption • Weak productivity and financial situation of PoEs • Weakness of commercial courts, very slow liquidation procedures, difficult contract enforcement 33 Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina - Government balance % of GDP 0.4 0 -0.1 -2.2 -3 -3.0 -3.3 -3.2 -6 -7.0 -7.3 -9 -10.5 -12 -15 -18 Source: CBBiH General government balance before grants General government balance after grants -16.5 2000 2001 2002 34 2003 2004 former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia • Sluggish growth (3.1% in 2003, 2.2% in 2004) • But stable macroeconomic environment with low inflation • Considerable progress in fiscal consolidation in 2004 (provisionally 1% surplus) • High external imbalances (current account deficit at 8-9% of GDP) • Core legislative framework of market economy in place. 35 former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia Impediments to growth and investment • Privatisation failed to generate new dynamics • Insufficient determination to address structural reforms (closing down defaulting enterprises or addressing the informal sector) • Reluctance to open business to foreigners (hidden barriers to market entry) • Ownership rights, weak judiciary 36 former Yugoslav Rep. of Macedonia Growth, inflation and public finances % 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Inflation (%) General govt. balance (% of GDP) Real GDP growth (%) -8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p p Projections Source: National Bank and IMF 37 Serbia and Montenegro • Growth 3% in 2003, 7.2% in 2004 on strong domestic demand • Unfinished stabilisation: inflation reaccelerated to an annual rate of 13.8% in December 2004 • High public and external debt, fiscal sustainability an important issue • Current account deficit remains high (at 13% before grants) • Fragmented internal market 38 Serbia and Montenegro • • • • Impediments to growth and investment Private sector share of GDP still low -45%Low productivity of state and socially owned enterprises Bankruptcy procedures need to be initiated when enterprises have failed and where privatisation not an optio Weak judiciary. Difficult contract enforcement 39 Serbia and Montenegro General Government and Current Account balances (after grants) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 -2 -4 Fiscal balance (incl. grants) -6 Current account (after grants) -8 -10 -12 40 Kosovo (SCG) • Slow growth (3.1% 2003, about the same in 2004) hampered by political instability, declining donor assistance • Huge external imbalances (trade deficit 45% of GDP, current account deficit 17% after grants) • Rapidly increasing public deficit (7% in 2004) • Business-friendly legislation in place • Delays in progress with enterprise restructuring and privatisation 41 Kosovo (SCG) • • • • • • Impediments to growth and investment Temporary status, risk perception Uncertain ownership rights Contingent / hidden liabilities Lack of law compliance / enforcement Energy sector. Supply shortage. KEK unsustainable financial situation Size of informal / underground economy 42 Kosovo (SCG) Kosovo - Balance of payments - Factor income and foreign assistance 70.4 % of 70 GDP Remittances Wages of local employees in donor community Foreign assistance 60 52 50 40.7 40 32.9 30 20 13.4 13.9 13.4 11.4 8.6 10 13.2 6.8 5.6 2003 2004p 0 Source: IMF 2001 2002 43 p Projections