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Welcome to class of Governments, Emerging Markets, and Trading Blocks by Dr. Satyendra Singh University of Winnipeg Canada Why Emerging Markets Now? • No fighting! • More confidence in governance/people/system • Economic reform/free market policies – Tariff/quota ↓, FDI ↑, investors as partners, deregulated industry, privatization of state-owned firms • Sense of market development in EMs – Two market segments (Urban and rural) – First mover advantage/educate customers • Change in culture – Social mobility ↑ demand for expensive products – Buy now, pay later EM: Eastern Europe • Czech Republic and Poland – Quick to implement free market policies • Hungary and Romania – Slow bureaucrats from communists days • Yugoslavia – Ethnic and religious divisions – Albania, Bosnia • Czech, Hungary, Slovak, Poland OECD – I.e., accept the obligation to modernize the economies • Baltic statesEstonia, Latvia, LithuaniaWTO/EU – Quick to move away from soviet-style economies – Drop Rubal, tariff-free, free-market economy EM: Asia • 4 tigers/dragons HK, S Korea, Taiwan, S’pore – From assembly line to electronics, machines, ship building • Japan is lagging behind – S Korea links with China, USSR, and influences the region • China dual economy socialism/capitalism – By 2015, GNP of China = USA – China now in WTO should follow the WTO rules – Human rights, legal system, corruptions, protectionism • India – free-market economy, > 51% share, no import restrictions – 400m MIG/HIG, 800m LIG consumers Canada’s Relations with the EMs • Canada has good relations with – South America, NAFTA, Africa • Canada’s role in E. Europe is limited • Canada is interested in ASEAN – 4 tigers + Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand • Canada is a member of APEC – Apprehensive in pursuing substantial business due to risks International Agencies… • Organization For Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – Group of developed countries dedicated to promoting economic expansion in its membernations • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – Cartel of 11 petroleum exporting countries • Middle East (6): Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE • Africa(3):Algeria, Libya • Other (2): Indonesia and Venezuela Other non OPEC oil exporting countries: UK, Russia, Mexico, Norway International Agencies • WTO Principles – Trade will be without discrimination – Trade should be freer, with trade barriers negotiated downward – Trade should be predictable – Trade should be more competitive – Trade should be more beneficial for less developed countries, encouraging development and economic reform – protects copyrights, trademarks, trade secrets, and other intellectual property matters – Disagreement on agricultural policies • India, Brazil… Emerging Markets Trading Blocks • Asia – Association of SouthEast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) • Africa – Economic Council of West African States (ECOWAS) – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) • South America – Mercosur (Mercosul) ASEAN: Asso. Southeast Asian Nations • Free Trade • 10 countries – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Mayamar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam • HO: Jakarta • ASEAN scholarship • ASEAN Univ.Network APEC: Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation • Eco. Growth & prosperity – Trade/invst Liberalization – Business Facilitation – Economic/tech cooperation • Important – 40% of world’s pop – 50% of world’s GDP – 40% of world’s trade • 21 countries – Australia, Brunei, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, NZ, Phil, Singapore, Thai, US, Taipei, HK, china, Mexico, PNG, Chile, Peru, USSR, Vietnam • HO: Singapore ECOWAS: Economic Council West African States • Economic integration – Mutual defense, court of justice – Ecowas rail, common currency 2015 – Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra L • 15 countries – Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde Cote d’lvoire, Gambia, Ghana, GuineaBissau, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo – Niger – suspended 2009– election problem – Guinea – suspended 2008 – coup attempt – Liberia wants to join Ecowas • HO: Abuja, Nigeria COMESA: Common Mkt for Eastern Southern Africa • Regional economic integration – Trade and investment • 19 countries – Burundi, Comoros, Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Eretria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe • HO: Lusaka, Zambia • Branding: Buy African, Build Africa • COMESA statistics MERCOSUR • Free trade and people movement • Full member – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Urguay Venezuela (Paraguay to ratify) • Associate member – Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador Peru • Observer – Mexico • HO: Sao Paula, Brazil