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CO2 emissions on a
quarterly basis
Maarten van Rossum and
Sjoerd Schenau
Presented by Ellen Brinksma
Content
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Why CO2 emissions on quarterly basis?
What do we publish?
Method and data sources
Results
Dissemination strategy and conclusions
Why publish CO2 emissions on quarterly
basis?
• Demand for faster data
• Idea of broad sustainability (welfare is more than
GDP)
• Create awareness for policy makers and general
public
• Possibilities for analyses
• Eurostat would like to publish faster CO2 data for
countries
• Interest of businesses
What do we publish?
• CO2 emissions by Dutch economic activities
• Publication at the same time as first ‘flash’ publication
economic growth (t+45)
• Disaggregation to some key industrial sectors:
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Agriculture, mining, manufacturing and construction
Energy, water and environmental services companies
Transport sector
Other services
Households
Total emissions
• No absolute levels, only changes with respect to previous
year
Point of departure
• Environmental accounts concepts  resident
principle
• Therefore emissions directly comparable with
economic key variables like GDP
• Not Kyoto data on a quarterly basis
• On the basis of existing source statistics
Differences between IPCC emissions and
emissions economic activities
Vergelijking ontwikkeling IPCC emissies en Milieurekeningen emissies
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
IPCC emissies
Economie, Milieurekeningen
How are the quarterly emissions
calculated?
• Data sources:
a) Monthly energy statistics (balances for gas, oil
products, renewable energy statistics)
b) Quarterly accounts (National accounts)
c) Other sources (air traffic information, Sum of degrees
below 18 degrees)
• Calculation of stationary and mobile sources
• Allocation to sectors
General methodology for stationary and
mobile sources
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Determine the annual emissions for each energy input in a
particular industry (data from Dutch Emission Inventory)
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Determine for every quarter the emissions for the different energy
inputs in a particular industry.
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Select an indicator which is capable of estimating the emissions
for the same quarter the next year for a particular energy input in
a particular industry.
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Aggregate emission to the level of publication and calculate the
year to year changes.
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Finally, after carrying out the estimation for the four quarters, one
has to rebase the sum of the four quarters with the ‘real’
emissions.
Overal quality assesment: macro level
• An essential test to assess the overall quality of the applied
methodology is to compare the sum of the estimated emissions
for the four quarters with both the level and the development of
the already existing annual statistic for CO2 emissions from the
air emission accounts.
• This is very important because one needs to avoid major
adjustments in figures in publications. Also, this should avoid
difficulties in communicating CO2 emissions to the public.
What has been done so far ?
• 2010: pilot study financed by Eurostat
• August 2011: First publication CO2 emissions
on quarterly basis (low profile)
• From 2012 onwards: publication on special
website ‘Dutch economy on quarterly basis’
Yearly change in CO2 emissions
Estimate (sum 4 quarters and annual figure)
Average absolute error: 0.5 percent
% change
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
2001
2002
2003
Quarterly based year figure
2004
2005
Annual figure
2006
2007
2008
2009
Publication for third quarter 2012
on Statistics Netherlands Website
Dutch economy
(weather corrected)
Dutch economy
Important: link in
article to document
where differences in
definitions are
explained including
bridge table (Kyoto
emissions, territory
emissions, air
emission accounts)
Transport
Services
Energy production
Water, waste
Agriculture, mining,
Industry, building
% change value added
% change CO2 emissions
Results on macro level: strong seasonality
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CO2 em issions, m ln kg
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
period
CO2 emissions by Dutch economy
CO2 emissions by Dutch economy corrected for weather
influences
2008
2009
Quarterly change in CO2 emissions 20082009:influence of the economic crisis
%
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
-4,0
-6,0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
Economic growth
Change emissions to air
Conclusions
• CO2 emissions can be constructed and published on
quarterly basis 45 days after the end of the quarter
• Quality of the data is good
• Differences with IPCC emissions  Good
communication necessary
• Large influence of weather: correction temperature
necessary
• No seasonal correction (yet)