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Download Estimating Market Demand Historical Data Local Production Plus
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Today • Project update • Market demand forecasting • Segmentation • Case studies Market Forecasting • Demand / size of market/ consumption/ market forecast.. How big is the market demand ? • NOT demand for your brand Estimating Market Demand Historical Data 8-10 Local Production Plus Imports Expert Opinion Analogy Irwin/McGraw-Hill Market Forecast • • • • • • • Data & judgement Ultimately try to quantify Current size & forecast Per capita consumption best basis Volume= per capita x population Market value = volume x average price Usually market forecast is in volume Market Forecast- historical data • Last 5 years, on average 100k new cars bought in Austria p.a • UK consumers eat 15 kg of chicken p.a. • US consumers bought 900k espresso machines in 2002 Market forecast- analogy • Demand is proportional to some factor (eg. GDP for consumer durables) • Demand for office air conditioning follows development of fax machines • US and Japan GDP / capita same but car penetration 800 / 1000 households in US versus 550 in Japan.. Why ? • Careful of using single factors in forecast Market forecast- analogy • US and Japan GDP / capita same but car penetration 800 / 1000 households in US versus 550 in Japan.. Why ? • Careful of using single factors in forecast Factors influencing Market demand • Income ( GDP ) • Relative price .. Price of category versus prices in substitute cagegory • Advertising expenditure in this market ( total compared to other categories) • Culture • Availability ( distribution) • Other eg. climate Market Forecast –Soft drinks • • • • • • • Income Price Relative price v. other beverages Availability Climate Advertising expenditure in total market Cultural factors ( water, wine , beer !) Market Forecasting • Ready to eat breakfast cereals in China • Frozen vegetables in Brasil • Cider in Austria Market attractiveness model Market outlook Competitive intensity outlook Segment profitability Attractiveness Company capability Market segmentation- why ? • Companies divide large heterogeneous markets into smaller segments that can be reached more efficiently with products & services that match consumers needs. • Consumers have different needs, perceptions, behavioursuppliers should seek to meet these to deliver improved consumer satisfaction • Companies can develop & manage the marketing mix more efficiently • Commodities not segmented, all other markets can be segmented! Demographic BASES FOR Behaviouristic SEGMENTING MARKETS Geographic Psychographic Market segmentation • Geographic segmentation. – Very common method – Based upon language / cultural/climate – Eg. Foods, air conditioning, magazines – Urban / rural markets • Companies very often organised on national bases Market segmentation- Demographic • • • • • • Age- toys,vitamins, comics Life cycle-18-30, Saga,cruises, Gender- clothes, cosmetics, magazines Income- luxury brands, economy brands Social class- Butlins, Center Parcs Occupation- business magazines Market segmentation- Psychographic • Lifestyle eg Y&R • Personality eg Honda scooters aimed at young at heart • Hobbies- golfing , scateboarding, gliding, chess • Nestle – energetic males & depressive chocolate lovers Mindset types as a basis for consumer segmentation-Nokia GEODEMOGRAPHICS A combination of geographic, demographic and lifestyle information that identifies target market locations by several behavioural similarities Market segmentation-behaviorial • Divides market into groups based upon their knowledge, attitudes or responses to a product • Occasions- when buying or using • FJ promoted outside breakfast usage • Mothers Day for cards , flowers • Benefit- find the benefits that consumers are looking for eg.toothpaste • Usage rate- heavy , light buyers eg beer, frequent flyers Segmentation- Segments V Niche • Segment bigger • Segments have several competitors • SUV is a segment; Land Rover, Suzuki, Shogun all other products in this segment Segmentation- TCCC • Mass- Coca- Cola • Product variety- Fanta, Sprite • Target marketing – – – – – Diet Coke Cherry Coke Caffeine free Lemon coke Glass / PET / Dispensed/Cans Manner brands / product categories Brand Manner Napoli Casali Casali Victor Schmidt Heller Category Wafers Dragees Rum Kokos Schoko Bananen Mozartkugel Pralines
