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Rebuilding Mass Consumption – Context Post World War II -fear another Great Depression -demobilization -radicalized labor -power of Communist parties Answer: Consumption is the opiate of the masses The World View “Our enormously productive economy … demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert buying and selling of goods into a ritual, and that we seek our spiritual satisfaction, our ego satisfaction, in consumption. … We need things consumed, burned up, worn out, replaced and discarded at an ever increasing rate.” Rebuilding Mass Consumption - Tools Keynesian short-term demand management - “consumption function” - contra cyclical policy Fixation on Competitive Growth (USSR) Maintain income, consumption levels through - military spending - road building - subsidized housing and suburbanization - consumer credit - low oil prices Advantages of Oil 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Historically easy to access Easily transported (liquids easiest) Energy density (40 kw hrs per gal) Refineable into several fuels Variety other uses chemicals, etc. Continuous flow production methods Demand for Gasoline • Number of cars (wartime expansion) • Low mileage • Distances traveled growing • Destruction of public transport • Military demand Refining Petroleum The Petrochemical Revolution Year 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Today? % Petrochemical US Europe 0.01 0.0 6.0 0.0 21.0 0.0 50.0 4.0 88.0 58.0 96.0 75.0 99.7 Price Trends 1947-59 traded commodities up 300% overall oil from $2.17 to 1.79 down 38% 1951-64 WPI up 4% inorganic chemicals up 20% synthetic organics down 15% 1957-67 CPI up 13% Dupont Corp Sales Price Index down 15% The Cost of Oil • • • Extraction (financial cost) Replacement cost of natural capital Ecological cost of production & use Greenhouse Gases: Since Industrial Age Gas CO2 Methane NOx CFCs Sources fossil fuels burning jungle agric., gas leaks deforest. chem. fert. fossil fuels refridgerants Increase 35% 100% 12% 4% p.a. Power 1 30 200 10,000 Acid Rain SO2 Volcanoes NOx 5-10% Swamps etc. Coal, petroleum (refining & use) 90-95% 100 m tons p.a. Effects: Dead lakes Stunted forests Falling crop yields Poisoned drinking water Corroded buildings Damage to automobiles Ozone Depletion: Causes Culprit Methane Natural swamps Nitrous oxide Halons microbes -- Human gas leaks (T) rice paddies (P) ruminants (A) fossil fuel refridgerants Chemical Toxification: Origins of Toxic Waste Petroleum and offshoots – 70%+ Metal refining Pulp & Paper Nuclear Military (chemical and nuclear) Nature and Toxic Waste Normal breakdown process -dissolution -evaporation -biodegradation -photo-degradation -natural acids Synthetic Organics Feedstock: fossil fuel Limited water solubility, fat affinity Toxic, carcinogenic, mutagenic Very slow to degrade sometimes impossible always difficult Breakdown products sometimes worse The Core Dilemma Maintain the carbon economy - more poisons - worse climate disruption Run out of oil? -economic and financial catastrophe -famines, population crash End of Oil? oil as energy-matter supply rising 1930s 2005, 2010, 2020? as energy-matter up, GNP up when oil supply stops growing? technological shifts energy substitutions economies in use what if they are not enough? Key factor: energy profit rate Symptoms of Conventional Oil Crisis? 1. Global discovery rate peaked in 1960s 2. 90% conventional oil already found? 3. Main producers (S.A., Russia, Mexico etc.) near capacity or beyond 4. Wave of industry mergers 5. Global demand growth 2000-2040 est. 60% Oil: Conventional v. Unconventional? Stage IV: Synthetic Oil 1) Shale Oil (kerogen) Production - Mine kerogen - Transport to refineries - Heat to 900 F - Add H From where? - Coal, oil? Elecrolysis water? where is electricity from? Problems - Massive water use - Low net energy - Waste disposal more than original groundwater pollution Oil Shales The Raw Material The Process 2) Oil Sands (Est. Athabasca 1.7 t. bbls) Strip mining (75 metres overburden) Hot water, steam stips thin oil coat from sand Add naptha or natural gas condensate to tar to upgrade to liquid Oil Sands (continued) • Recoverable only 300 billion • Energy profit rate half conventional oil • Greenhouse emissions far more than conventional oil • Garbage enormous -2 tons sand per bbl oil -destroys hundreds of thousands of acres -displace native population & destroy forests, wildlife habitat -huge water use 2-1/2 bbl liquid waste per bbl oil (tailings pond 22 sq km circumference) To replace world conventional, 70 Syncrudes with tailings pond = Lake Ontario With this result Stage V? Return to Coal? Energy profit rate already < 1? Cost of liquefaction Huge cost to restore old production Pollution far greater than oil production Much dirtier in use But massive subsidies, esp. US (US the “Saudi Arabia of coal”!) A New Coal-Chemical Revolution? World Coal Distribution US: The “Saudi Arabia of Coal?” 90% burned to produce electricity Pollution controls – taller chimneys! Acid rain problem legislation, scrubbers Only partly successful -still big problem certain areas -US soils so degraded no longer neutralize -additional problem mercury (it cycles up, down) Switch to Western coal - lower S - open pit, surface mines - heavily mechanized (i.e. no unions) BUT - younger coal, lower energy per unit Modern Deep Mine West Virginia Mountain Top Removal Coal Mine Wyoming Open Pit Coal Mine US Coal Solution? -modern tech less SO2 less NOx less mercury per unit BUT more CO2!!! Skyrocketing Price of Fossil Fuel - Impact: -on -on -on -on -on -on GNP distribution of income and wealth stock market real estate market automobile culture agriculture In The New Millennium: Techno Optimism Energy: solar-hydrogen replace fossil fuel? Matter: synthetic biochemicals replace petrochemicals? i.e. a new hydrogen fuelledbioengineering age? In The New Millennium: Economic & Political Reality? • Stuck with carbon economy • Some window dressing for PR • Slow motion disintegration at first climate disruption chemical pollution steadily climbing oil prices all well before oil runs out • Then precipitous drop oil production • With what consequences? Petrochemical Age & Economic Growth Based On: Human Ingenuity? Magic of the Market? Faith in God? No! Bio-Geo-Chemical Fluke! Unsustainable, not repeatable The World in 2100? • A much smaller population • With much lower per capita C • Far less mobile • In small communities • Using old solar flow technologies • In a physically degraded world • With much less biological wealth