Download The Steady State Economy and the Mission of the U.S. Fish and

Outline
• Economic growth vs. biodiversity
conservation
• Biodiversity conservation and human
welfare
• Technological progress
• Iron triangle
• Steady State Revolution
Endangerment Causes
Urbanization
Agriculture
Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs)
Recreation, tourism development
Pollution
Domestic livestock, ranching
247
205
160
148
143
136
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Causes (cont.)
Mineral, gas, oil extraction
Non-native species
Harvest
Modified fire regimes
Road construction/maintenance
Industrial development
134
115
101
83
83
81
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Economic Growth
• an increase in the production and
consumption of goods and services
• typically expressed in terms of GDP
• facilitated by increasing:
–population
–per capita consumption
GDP
K
Natural capital
allocated to
economy of
nature
Time
Natural capital
allocated to
human economy
PDF files for these
articles available
at The Wildlife
Society website:
www.wildlife.org
ESA Listings and GDP
1400
$10
1200
$9
1000
$8
800
$7
600
$6
400
$5
R2 = 98.4
200
0
1973
$4
$3
1980
1990
2001
Carrying Capacity Scenarios
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
K and r-selected Species
Economic Carrying Capacity
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
K and r-selected Economies
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
1932
1929
American GNP, 1929-1997
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Biodiversity Conservation and
Steady State Economy
K
To conserve
biodiversity ...
...maintain steady state
economy below K.
Time
Biodiverse Goods
•
•
•
•
•
Food
Fiber
Medicine
Genetic stocks
Experimental subjects
Biodiverse Services
•
•
•
•
•
Atmospheric regulation
Water provision and purification
Pollination
Waste disposal
Aesthetic pleasure
How important is
biodiversity?
• Pending paper by Costanza et al. will
estimate value of world’s biodiversity at $6
trillion dollars per annum; ~ one sixth GGP
• Key component of natural capital
• Natural capital the foundation of economic
security
We Might Ask
GGP
K
Economy of
nature
Human
economy
Technological Progress
• Vernacular: invention, innovation
• Technical: increasing productive
efficiency resulting from invention
and innovation
GDP
X natural capital allocable
KU
KT
Natural capital
allocated
to non-human
economy
Natural capital allocated
to human economy
Time
X natural capital allocable
GDP
X/2 conserved
Economic growth with
technology level 2
KU
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
Consider the Sources
• Research and development
• Corporate profit
• Economies of scale
K
U
X/2 natural capital allocable
GDP
X/2 converted
Economic growth with
technology level 2
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The Great Debate:
Is There a Limit?
•
•
•
•
“Yes”
Physiocrats
Classical economists
Ecological economists
Ecologists
“No”
• Neoclassical
economists
• Corporations
• Politicians
$
=
$
$
The “Information Economy”
• What is the information used for?
• How does one come to afford the
information?
And yet we hear:
“Some people just don’t get it. There is no conflict
between economic growth and environmental
protection!”
Why do they persist?
Goals
• Replace national goal of
“economic growth” with national
goal of steady state economy.
• Replace bloating economy with
steady state economy.
Revolutions
• Magnitude of change
• Pace of change
• “When evolution won’t cut it”
• Evolution combined with revolt
Steady State Revolution
• Academic, social
• Peaceable, not pacifistic
• Models
–abolition of child labor
–reduction of smoking
Academic Phase
• Replacement of neoclassical
economic growth theory
• Refocusing of curricula
• More public outreach
Social Phase
• “Economic growth” reconstructed
as economic bloating
• Dollar spent is dollar burned
• Castigation of the liquidating class
Class Structure of the
Steady State Revolution
• Liquidating class
• Steady state class
• Amorphic class
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile:
80
99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile:
80
99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile:
80
99 100
Expenditures
Consumption Classes
Percentile:
80
99 100
Liquidators
Amorphs
Steady
Staters
Liquidating Class
Amorphic Class
Steady State Class
Liquidating Class
Amorphic Class
Steady State Class
Economic Rationale
• “Trickle-down consumption”
• Redistribution of wealth compensates
for reduced per capita consumption
• Reduction of waste
• Leads toward steady state economy
Liquidators
Ecological
Capacity
Amorphs
Most Steady Staters
Some Steady Staters
Poverty
Line
Liquidators
Amorphs
Ecological
Capacity
Liquidators
Amorphs
Most Steady Staters
Some Steady Staters
Steady Staters
Poverty
Line
Political Rationale
• No “everyone revolt against everybody”
• Taps into predisposition
• Readily identifiable classes
Psychological
Rationale
• Darwin, Veblen, Maslow
• Cure for “liquidator syndrome”
• Ratcheting effect toward
sustainable ideology
Maslow’s Hierarchy
1) Food
2) Security
3) Love, affection, reproduction
4) Self-esteem
5) Self-actualization
Sociopolitical
Rationale
• Ideological horse before the public
policy cart
• Supplementary to policy
prescriptions
• Replaces politicians, not system
Ethics I
• Equity (current, intergenerational)
• Consistent with religions: Buddhist,
Christian, Hindu, Islamic, Judaic
• “Devil in the details” of castigation
• Tolerance overrated
Ethics II
• “Why do they hate Americans?”
– It’s the economy, stupid!
– Conspicuous consumption not
everything, but major thing
• SSR beats violent alternatives
• “Speaking truth to power”
K
Time