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Unemployment and Its Natural Rate Copyright © 2004 South-Western 28 Identifying Unemployment • 2 Categories of Unemployment: LR and SR 1. long-run: natural rate of unemployment (自然失業率) the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Identifying Unemployment 2. short-run: cyclical rate of unemployment (景氣型失業) • fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate. • associated with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle. Copyright © 2004 South-Western 勞動力之分類 臺灣地區總人口 未滿十五歲人口 武裝勞動力 十五歲以上人口 監管人口 民間人口 (現役軍人) (民間)勞動力 就業者 非勞動力 失業者 Copyright © 2004 South-Western Measurement of Unemployment 人力資源調查:名詞與定義 • 民間人口:在資料標準週內年滿十五歲。 • 勞動力(Labor Force,LF): 可以工作之民間人口,包括就業者及失業者。 • 就業者(the Employed,E): 從事有酬工作者,或從事十五小時以上無酬家屬工作者。 • 失業者(the Unemployed,U,「狹義失業人口」): 同時具有: (1)無工作;(2)隨時可以工作;(3) 正在尋找工作或已找工作在等待結果。尚包括等待恢復工 作者及找到職業而未開始工作亦無報酬者。 Copyright © 2004 South-Western 勞參率與失業率 • 非勞動力(not in the LF): 不屬於勞動力之民間人口,包括因就學、料理家務 、高齡、身心障礙、想工作而未找工作及其他原因 等而未工作亦未找工作者。 • 勞動參與率(labor-force participation rate): = 勞動力/十五歲以上民間人口 • 失業率(unemployment rate): = 失業者/勞動力 Copyright © 2004 South-Western 廣義失業率 • 廣義失業人口:「狹義失業人口」 加上「非勞動力中想工作而未找工作者」。 後者:非勞動力人口中有工作意願 但無尋職行動之人口: Discouraged Worker(喪志勞工) • 廣義失業率 = 廣義失業人口/(勞動力+喪志勞工) Copyright © 2004 South-Western Figure 28.1 Taiwan: The Breakdown of the Population in 2007 Employed 1029.4萬 Labor Force (1071.3萬) Adult Population (1839.2萬) Unemployed (41.9萬) Not in labor force (767.9萬) Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Table 28.1 Taiwan: the Labor-Market Experiences of Various Demographic Groups 平 均 值 勞參 率 男性 勞參 率 女性 勞參 率 實質 GDP 成長 率 -2006 廣義 失業 率 失業 率 大學 以上 學歷 失業 率 20-24 歲失 業率 1978-2007 58.66 72.65 44.66 6.78 3.84 2.61 2.88 6.54 1978-90 59.30 76.02 42.46 8.36 2.90 1.95 2.57 5.02 1991-00 58.54 71.69 45.39 6.35 3.28 2.17 2.48 5.78 2001-07 57.65 67.77 47.68 4.09 6.38 4.45 4.03 10.48 Copyright©2004 South-Western Taiwan: unemployment rate FIGURE 28.2a The Unemployment Rate in Taiwan, 1978-2007 6 5 % 4 3 2 1 0 1981 1985 1989 整體失業率 1993 1997 2001 2005 Year 自然失業率 Copyright © 2004 South-Western SR: U and GDP,Deviations from Trends Fig 28.2b Deviations from Trend in the Unemployment Rate and Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real GDP 1.5 0.06 Deviation From Trend(% for GDP) 0.04 1.0 0.02 0.5 0.00 -0.02 0.0 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 -0.04 -0.5 -0.06 -1.0 -0.08 Year Unemployment Rate GDP Copyright © 2004 South-Western Taiwan: labor participation rate Fig 28.3 台灣勞動參與率(性別) 90 80 % 70 60 50 40 30 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 年度 男性勞參率 女性勞參率 Copyright © 2004 South-Western Duration of Unemployment (失業期間) • Most people who become unemployed find work within a short period of time: Most spells of unemployment are short. • Most unemployment observed at any given time is attributable to a few people who are unemployed for long periods of time. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Taiwan: Duration of Unemployment 失業率/失業期間 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 失業率 2.92 2.99 4.57 5.17 4.99 4.44 4.13 平均失業週數 (週 ) 23.0 24.7 25.7 29.3 31.1 30.5 29.4 長期失業人數 (53+週,萬人) 3.0 3.9 5.8 9.4 10.5 10.5 8.7 占全體失業者 比率(%) 10.9 14.3 14.1 18.8 21.0 20.8 19.1 Copyright © 2004 South-Western LR Unemployment: Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? • In a perfectly competitive labor market, wages adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed. But this is not true in reality. • LR natural rate of unemployment = Frictional unemployment (摩擦性失業) + Structural Unemployment (結構性失業) Copyright © 2004 South-Western 1. Frictional Unemployment • It takes time for workers to search for the jobs that are best suit their tastes and skills. • Frictional Unemployment : the unemployment that results from the time to match qualified workers (U) with appropriate jobs (V). Copyright © 2004 South-Western Frictional Unemployment U: (失業者)找事的人, V:Vacancy 缺工(空缺) U=V(一個蘿蔔一個坑) 失業者最終都可以找到事,只是需費時去配對 -- It is not caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium. (參考Fig28.3:課本較廣義的結構性失業) Copyright © 2004 South-Western 2. Structural Unemployment 窄義的結構性失業 • Changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions are called sectoral shifts. (產業結構變遷) For some sectors, Ui > Vi,and for the others, Vj > Uj,but Ui have no skills for the jobs in sector j. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Structural Unemployment Structural Unemployment • It takes time for workers to receive the appropriate training, search for and find jobs in new sectors. • often thought to explain longer spells of unemployment. • Government programs can affect the time it takes unemployed workers to find new jobs. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy related to Job Search 3 programs: (勞委會) (1) Government-run employment agencies give out information about job vacancies in order to match workers and jobs more quickly. --- 公立就業服務機構 (2) Public training programs aim to ease the transition of workers from declining to growing industries and to help disadvantaged groups escape poverty. --- 職業訓練局 Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy related to Job Search (3) Unemployment insurance (失業保險): a government program that partially protects workers’ incomes when they become unemployed. 台灣失業保險制度 1999年:勞工保險開辦失業給付業務, 2003年:「就業保險法」, 包含就業服務、職業訓練及失業保險三者。 勞委會網站: http://www.cla.gov.tw/cgi-in/SM_theme?page=416f8419 Copyright © 2004 South-Western Public Policy related to Job Search The impacts of Unemployment insurance: • It reduces the search efforts of the unemployed and increases the amount of search unemployment. • It may improve the chances of workers being matched with the right jobs. 台灣另外:(4) 勞動基準法: 保障勞工權益,但造成勞資契約的僵固性。 新制可攜式勞退基金 (2005年7月施行) 避免廠商關廠倒閉損害勞工權益, 並增加中老年齡就業機會 Copyright © 2004 South-Western 3 Reasons for Structural Unemployment 較廣義的結構性失業(課本) Structural unemployment : Ls > Ld when w > w* • the number of jobs available in some labor markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one. • occurs when the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. • caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium. Copyright © 2004 South-Western 1. Minimum-Wage Laws • 3 reasons for structural unem: 1. Minimum-wage laws 2. Unions 3. Efficiency wages • Minimum-Wage Laws:最低工資法 When the minimum wage is set above W*, it creates unemployment. --- (Nominal) Wage Rigidity (工資僵固性) Copyright © 2004 South-Western Fig 28.4 Unemployment from a Wage Above the Equilibrium Level Wage Labor supply Surplus of labor = Unemployment Minimum wage WE Labor demand 0 LD LE LS Quantity of Labor Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 2. Unions and Collective Bargaining • A union (工會) is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. • 1940s and 1950s, unions were at their peak, 1/3 of U.S. labor force was unionized. • A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its market power. • collective bargaining:the process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment. (集體議價) Copyright © 2004 South-Western Unions and Collective Bargaining • By acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above-equilibrium wages for their members. • A strike (罷工) refers to when the union organizes a withdrawal of labor from the firm. • Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers. • Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers not in the union (outsiders) bear some of the costs. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy? • Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable. • Advocates of unions claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers’ concerns. eg, 法國2006/2, 反對「首次雇用契約」就業法案的抗議遊行。 eg, 台灣2005/9 抗議合併,中小企業銀行員工罷工。 Copyright © 2004 South-Western 3. The Theory of Efficiency Wages • Profits = P*F(E(ω), K)- ωL – other costs E: effective labor,ω: wages,L: labor quantity • A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following 4 reasons: (1) Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more productive. Increase effective labor and labor productivity (2) Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs. Increase effective labor and labor productivity Copyright © 2004 South-Western The Theory of Efficiency Wages (3) Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job. reduce firm’s hiring and training costs. (4) Worker Effort: Higher wages increase the opportunity costs of shirking and give workers an incentive to put forward their best effort. Reduce firm’s monitoring costs. eg, Henry Ford and $5-a-day Wage (1914) Efficiency Wage:Real Wage Rigidity Copyright © 2004 South-Western Summary • • • • • • • • • • Labor force participation rate Unemployment rate Discouraged workers Duration of unemployment Natural rate of unemployment Frictional unemployment Structural unemployment Minimum Wages Union and Collective Bargaining Efficiency Wages Copyright © 2004 South-Western