Download 自然失業率

Unemployment and
Its Natural Rate
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
28
Identifying Unemployment
•
2 Categories of Unemployment：
LR and SR
1. long-run: natural rate of unemployment
(自然失業率)
the amount of unemployment that the
economy normally experiences.
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Identifying Unemployment
2. short-run: cyclical rate of unemployment
(景氣型失業)
• fluctuations in unemployment around its
natural rate.
• associated with short-term ups and downs of
the business cycle.
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勞動力之分類
臺灣地區總人口
未滿十五歲人口
武裝勞動力
十五歲以上人口
監管人口
民間人口
（現役軍人）
（民間）勞動力
就業者
非勞動力
失業者
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Measurement of Unemployment
人力資源調查：名詞與定義
• 民間人口：在資料標準週內年滿十五歲。
• 勞動力（Labor Force，LF）：
可以工作之民間人口，包括就業者及失業者。
• 就業者（the Employed，E）：
從事有酬工作者，或從事十五小時以上無酬家屬工作者。
• 失業者（the Unemployed，U，「狹義失業人口」）：
同時具有： （１）無工作；（２）隨時可以工作；（３）
正在尋找工作或已找工作在等待結果。尚包括等待恢復工
作者及找到職業而未開始工作亦無報酬者。
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勞參率與失業率
• 非勞動力（not in the LF）：
不屬於勞動力之民間人口，包括因就學、料理家務
、高齡、身心障礙、想工作而未找工作及其他原因
等而未工作亦未找工作者。
• 勞動參與率(labor-force participation rate)：
= 勞動力/十五歲以上民間人口
• 失業率(unemployment rate)：
= 失業者/勞動力
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廣義失業率
• 廣義失業人口：「狹義失業人口」
加上「非勞動力中想工作而未找工作者」。
後者：非勞動力人口中有工作意願
但無尋職行動之人口：
Discouraged Worker（喪志勞工）
• 廣義失業率
= 廣義失業人口/(勞動力+喪志勞工)
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Figure 28.1 Taiwan:
The Breakdown of the Population in 2007
Employed
1029.4萬
Labor Force
(1071.3萬)
Adult
Population
(1839.2萬)
Unemployed (41.9萬)
Not in labor force
（767.9萬）
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning
Table 28.1 Taiwan: the Labor-Market Experiences
of Various Demographic Groups
平
均
值
勞參
率
男性
勞參
率
女性
勞參
率
實質
GDP
成長
率
-2006
廣義
失業
率
失業
率
大學
以上
學歷
失業
率
20-24
歲失
業率
1978-2007
58.66
72.65
44.66
6.78
3.84
2.61
2.88
6.54
1978-90
59.30
76.02
42.46
8.36
2.90
1.95
2.57
5.02
1991-00
58.54
71.69
45.39
6.35
3.28
2.17
2.48
5.78
2001-07
57.65
67.77
47.68
4.09
6.38
4.45
4.03
10.48
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Taiwan: unemployment rate
FIGURE 28.2a The Unemployment Rate in Taiwan, 1978-2007
6
5
％
4
3
2
1
0
1981
1985
1989
整體失業率
1993
1997
2001
2005
Year
自然失業率
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SR: U and GDP，Deviations from Trends
Fig 28.2b Deviations from Trend in the Unemployment Rate and
Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real GDP
1.5
0.06
Deviation From Trend(% for GDP)
0.04
1.0
0.02
0.5
0.00
-0.02
0.0
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
-0.04
-0.5
-0.06
-1.0
-0.08
Year
Unemployment Rate
GDP
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Taiwan: labor participation rate
Fig 28.3 台灣勞動參與率（性別）
90
80
％
70
60
50
40
30
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
年度
男性勞參率
女性勞參率
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Duration of Unemployment (失業期間)
• Most people who become unemployed
find work within a short period of time：
Most spells of unemployment are short.
• Most unemployment observed at any given
time is attributable to a few people who are
unemployed for long periods of time.
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Taiwan: Duration of Unemployment
失業率/失業期間
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
失業率
2.92
2.99
4.57
5.17
4.99
4.44
4.13
平均失業週數
(週 )
23.0
24.7
25.7
29.3
31.1
30.5
29.4
長期失業人數
(53+週，萬人)
3.0
3.9
5.8
9.4
10.5
10.5
8.7
占全體失業者
比率(%)
10.9
14.3
14.1
18.8
21.0
20.8
19.1
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LR Unemployment:
Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed?
• In a perfectly competitive labor market,
wages adjust to balance the supply and demand
for labor, ensuring that all workers would be
fully employed. But this is not true in reality.
• LR natural rate of unemployment
= Frictional unemployment （摩擦性失業）
＋ Structural Unemployment (結構性失業)
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1. Frictional Unemployment
• It takes time for workers to search for the jobs
that are best suit their tastes and skills.
• Frictional Unemployment : the unemployment
that results from the time to match qualified
workers (U) with appropriate jobs (V).
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Frictional Unemployment
U: (失業者)找事的人，
V：Vacancy 缺工（空缺）
U=V（一個蘿蔔一個坑）
失業者最終都可以找到事，只是需費時去配對
-- It is not caused by a wage rate higher than
equilibrium.
（參考Fig28.3：課本較廣義的結構性失業）
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2. Structural Unemployment
窄義的結構性失業
• Changes in the composition of demand among
industries or regions are called sectoral shifts.
（產業結構變遷）
For some sectors, Ui > Vi，and
for the others,
Vj > Uj，but
Ui have no skills for the jobs in sector j.
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Structural Unemployment
Structural Unemployment
• It takes time for workers to receive the
appropriate training, search for and find jobs in
new sectors.
• often thought to explain longer spells of
unemployment.
• Government programs can affect the time it
takes unemployed workers to find new jobs.
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Public Policy related to Job Search
3 programs: (勞委會)
(1) Government-run employment agencies give out
information about job vacancies in order to match
workers and jobs more quickly.
--- 公立就業服務機構
(2) Public training programs aim to ease the
transition of workers from declining to growing
industries and to help disadvantaged groups
escape poverty.
--- 職業訓練局
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Public Policy related to Job Search
(3) Unemployment insurance （失業保險）：
a government program that partially protects
workers’ incomes when they become unemployed.
台灣失業保險制度
1999年：勞工保險開辦失業給付業務，
2003年：「就業保險法」，
包含就業服務、職業訓練及失業保險三者。
勞委會網站：
http://www.cla.gov.tw/cgi-in/SM_theme?page=416f8419
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Public Policy related to Job Search
The impacts of Unemployment insurance:
• It reduces the search efforts of the unemployed and
increases the amount of search unemployment.
• It may improve the chances of workers being matched
with the right jobs.
台灣另外：(4) 勞動基準法：
保障勞工權益，但造成勞資契約的僵固性。
新制可攜式勞退基金 （2005年7月施行）
避免廠商關廠倒閉損害勞工權益，
並增加中老年齡就業機會
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3 Reasons for Structural Unemployment
較廣義的結構性失業（課本）
Structural unemployment :
Ls > Ld when w > w*
• the number of jobs available in some labor markets is
insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants
one.
• occurs when the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the
quantity demanded.
• caused by a wage rate higher than equilibrium.
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1. Minimum-Wage Laws
• 3 reasons for structural unem:
1. Minimum-wage laws
2. Unions
3. Efficiency wages
• Minimum-Wage Laws：最低工資法
When the minimum wage is set above W*, it
creates unemployment.
--- (Nominal) Wage Rigidity (工資僵固性)
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Fig 28.4 Unemployment from
a Wage Above the Equilibrium Level
Wage
Labor
supply
Surplus of labor =
Unemployment
Minimum
wage
WE
Labor
demand
0
LD
LE
LS
Quantity of
Labor
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2. Unions and Collective Bargaining
• A union (工會) is a worker association that bargains
with employers over wages and working conditions.
• 1940s and 1950s, unions were at their peak,
1/3 of U.S. labor force was unionized.
• A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its
market power.
• collective bargaining：the process by which unions
and firms agree on the terms of employment.
（集體議價）
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Unions and Collective Bargaining
• By acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise
impose high costs on employers, unions usually
achieve above-equilibrium wages for their members.
• A strike (罷工) refers to when the union organizes a
withdrawal of labor from the firm.
• Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than
nonunion workers.
• Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of
collective bargaining, while workers not in the union
(outsiders) bear some of the costs.
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Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy?
• Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of
labor to be inefficient and inequitable.
• Advocates of unions claim that unions are
important for helping firms respond efficiently
to workers’ concerns.
eg, 法國2006/2，
反對「首次雇用契約」就業法案的抗議遊行。
eg, 台灣2005/9
抗議合併，中小企業銀行員工罷工。
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3. The Theory of Efficiency Wages
•
Profits = P*F(E(ω), K)- ωL – other costs
E: effective labor，ω: wages，L: labor quantity
•
A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium
wages for the following 4 reasons:
(1) Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better
diet and thus are more productive.
 Increase effective labor and labor productivity
(2) Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better
pool of workers to apply for jobs.
 Increase effective labor and labor productivity
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The Theory of Efficiency Wages
(3) Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less
likely to look for another job.
 reduce firm’s hiring and training costs.
(4) Worker Effort: Higher wages increase the
opportunity costs of shirking and give workers an
incentive to put forward their best effort.
Reduce firm’s monitoring costs.
eg, Henry Ford and $5-a-day Wage (1914)
Efficiency Wage：Real Wage Rigidity
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Summary
•
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Labor force participation rate
Unemployment rate
Discouraged workers
Duration of unemployment
Natural rate of unemployment
Frictional unemployment
Structural unemployment
Minimum Wages
Union and Collective Bargaining
Efficiency Wages
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