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Economics 216: The Macroeconomics of Development Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D., D. Soc. Sc. (hon.) Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development Department of Economics Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6072, U.S.A. Spring 2000-2001 Email: [email protected]; WebPages: http://www.stanford.edu/~ljlau Lecture 2 The Historical Experience of Economic Development Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D., D. Soc. Sc. (hon.) Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development Department of Economics Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6072, U.S.A. Spring 2000-2001 Email: [email protected]; WebPages: http://www.stanford.edu/~ljlau The Definition of Economic Take-Off Take-off into "Self-Sustained Economic Growth" Working definition: A continuous growth of output of more than 4 percent per annum on a per capita basis over a decade East Asia has done exceptionally well in the post-war period, despite relatively unfavorable natural resource endowment and population density. How has it been able to achieve this economic growth? Philippines is the only economy in East Asia that has not achieved an economic take-off into self-sustained growth Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 3 The Record of Postwar Economic Growth Asia was the poorest region in the World in 1950 Between 1960 and 1996, according to World Bank data, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Botswana and Swaziland were the only countries that achieved an average annual rate of growth of real GDP per capita greater than 4% Botswana and Swaziland (both in Africa) are the only nonAsian countries that achieved an average annual rate of growth of real GDP per capita greater than 4% between 1960 and 1997 Philippines is the only economy in East Asia that was not Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 4 able to achieve a 4% rate of growth over the same period Is an Eventual Slowdown Inevitable? Paul Krugman’s hypothesis Miracle or bubble? How soon will the slowdown come? What happens if (voluntary) leisure is included in the measurement of GNP? Rising real wage rates Declining hours per worker—rising leisure hours per worker Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 5 Rates of Growth of Inputs & Outputs of the East Asian Developing & the G-7 Countries Table 3.1: Average Annual Rates of Growth of Real GDP, Capital, Labor and Human Capital (percent) (Extended sample period) Average Capital Utilized Labor Human Human Country Period GDP Stock Capital Employment Hours Capital Capital Hong Kong 66-95 7.4 8.8 8.6 2.6 2.4 4.8 2.1 S. Korea 60-95 8.5 12.3 12.3 3.1 3.3 6.2 4.0 Singapore 64-95 8.8 10.3 10.3 4.3 4.7 5.9 3.5 Taiwan 53-95 8.4 11.8 11.8 2.7 2.3 5.3 2.8 Indonesia 70-94 6.7 8.9 9.8 3.1 3.1 9.6 7.7 Malaysia 70-95 7.3 11.8 11.8 3.7 3.7 7.7 4.9 Philippines 66-95 4.0 5.8 5.9 3.2 3.2 10.8 8.5 Thailand 66-94 7.6 9.1 9.4 2.8 2.8 8.5 5.8 China 65-95 8.4 10.3 10.3 3.0 3.0 5.9 3.3 Japan 57-94 5.9 8.1 8.0 1.1 0.6 2.1 0.9 Canada 57-94 3.8 4.8 4.7 2.3 1.9 3.0 1.1 France 57-94 3.3 3.9 3.9 0.4 -0.2 2.0 1.1 W. Germany 57-94 3.2 3.3 3.1 0.1 -0.3 1.5 1.0 Italy 59-94 3.5 5.2 5.3 0.0 -0.3 1.8 1.3 UK 57-94 2.4 3.9 3.8 0.2 -0.1 1.2 0.8 US 49-94 3.1 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.3 2.1 0.8 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 6 Real Output per Labor Hour R eal O utp ut p er Lab o r Ho ur (1980 US $) 15 C hina Hong Kong Indone s ia S . Kor e a Malays ia P hilippine s S ing apor e Taiwan Thailand J apan N on-A s ian G5 10 5 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 75 19 73 19 71 19 69 19 67 19 65 19 63 19 61 19 59 19 57 19 55 19 53 0 19 1980 US $ p er Lab o r Ho ur 20 7 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: Selected East Asian Economies Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, Selected East Asian Economies 20 16 12 8 Percent per annum 4 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 -24 Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand China Japan Taiwan -28 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 8 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: East Asian Newly Industrialized Economies Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, East Asian Newly Industrialized Economies 16 12 Percent per annum 8 4 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 -4 Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. Singapore Taiwan -8 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 9 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: Selected East Asian Economies Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, Selected East Asian Economies 16 12 Percent per annum 8 4 0 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 -4 -8 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand China Philippines -12 -16 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 10 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: Selected Non-Asian Economies Rate of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, Selected Non-Asian Economies 22 16 Brazil Mexico Russian Federation Slovenia Nigeria South Africa Percent per annum 10 4 -2 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 -8 -14 -20 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 11 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: The Group-of-Seven (G-7) Countries Rate of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, Group of Seven Countries 16 12 United Kingdom France Germany Italy Japan Canada 8 Percent per annum United States 4 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 -4 -8 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 12 Rates of Growth of Real GNP per Capita: Other Developed Economies Rate of Growth of Real GNP per Capita, Other Developed Economies 16 Percent per annum 10 4 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 -2 Greece Portugal -8 Spain New Zealand -14 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 13 Internal and External Factors Demographic transition--a pronounced decline in the fertility rate, the rate of growth of population, and the dependency ratio A rise in the productivity of labor in the agricultural sector enabling a release of surplus output and labor to the industrial sector (land reform, etc.) Foreign assistance may be needed at the beginning--e.g. U.S. aid to South Korea (in the 50s and 60s) and Taiwan (up until 1965); Soviet aid to China (in the 1950s), etc. A Two-Gap Model (savings gap and foreign exchange gap--both can be bridged with foreign aid or investment) The positive effects of adversity on the four “Newly Industrialized Economies” (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 14 High Domestic Savings and Investment Rates Reasons for high domestic savings rate (inadequacy of) social safety net (unavailability) of consumer credit (high) price of housing positive real rates of return (achieved through low inflation) stable financial system bonus system of compensation social norms of (low and inconspicuous) consumption A high domestic savings rate enables a high domestic investment rate A high domestic investment rate is the key to sustained economic growth If technical progress were “embodied”, a high investment Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 15 rate is required in order to benefit from technical progress Savings Rates as a Percent of GDP of Selected East Asian Countries T h e S a v in g s R a te a s a P er c e n t o f G D P 50 40 P e rc e n t 30 20 10 C h in a Ho ng K on g In do n e si a Ko re a , R e p u b lic o f M a lay si a P h i lip p in e s S in g a p o r e T a iw a n T h a ila n d M e x ic o In d i a 0 196 5 196 7 196 9 197 1 197 3 197 5 197 7 197 9 198 1 198 3 198 5 198 7 198 9 199 1 199 3 199 5 199 7 199 9 -1 0 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 16 The Savings-Investment Gap as a Percent of GDP--Selected East Asian Countries T h e S a v in g s -In v e s tm e n t G a p a s a P e rc e n t o f G D P 25 20 15 Ch ina H on g K o ng Ind o ne s ia K o re a , R ep u blic of M ala y s ia P hilip pin es S in ga po re T aiw an T h aila nd M e x ico In d ia P e rc e n t 10 5 0 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 -5 - 10 - 15 - 20 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 17 The Savings Rate and Real GNP per Capita The savings rate was typically very low initially It rose rapidly with the growth of real GNP per capita It reached a plateau and stabilized at a level between 30 and 40% of GDP and stayed there Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 18 The Savings Rate and Real Output per Capita: East Asian Economies N a tio na l S a v ing s R a te a nd R e a l G N P pe r C a pita 55 Ch in a In d o n e s ia K o re a , Re p u b lic o f Ph ilip p in e s T h a ila n d 50 45 Ho n g Ko n g Ja p a n M a la y s ia Sin g a p o re Pe rce n t 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 100 1000 10000 100000 R e a l GD P pe r C a pita , 1 9 9 5 US $ Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 19 The Savings Rate and Real Output per Capita: Taiwan Sa v in g s R ate v e rsu s R e a l G N P pe r C a p ita 45 S a v in g s R a te ( P e r c e n t ) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 0 00 4 0 00 6 0 00 8 0 00 1 0 0 00 1 2 0 00 1 4 0 00 G N P p e r c a p it a in 19 9 9 U S $ Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 20 Relative Inflation in East Asian Economies Inflation in the East Asian economies has remained low relative to the United States Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 21 Rates of Inflation Relative to the United States-Selected East Asian Countries Rates of Inflation Relative to the United States (percent p.a.) 90 80 70 60 China Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Percent p.a. 50 40 30 20 10 0 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 -10 -20 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 22 A High Rate of Investment in Human Capital (Education) High rates of investment in human capital High value for education because of the traditional “examination system” An effective and trainable labor force Implies that the actual savings rate has been even higher Was “brain drain” a problem? Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 23 Human Capital A verage H um an C ap ital (Y ears o f S c ho o ling p er W o rking-A ge P ers o n) 14 Ho n g Ko n g In d o n e s ia M a la y s ia S. K o re a Ph ilip p in e s Sin g a p o re T a iw a n T h a ila n d N o n -A s ia n G5 Ja p a n 10 8 6 4 2 Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 75 19 73 19 71 19 69 19 67 19 65 19 63 19 61 19 59 19 57 19 55 19 53 0 19 Years p er W o rking-Age P ers o n 12 Ch in a 24 Export Orientation Export orientation implies a low (under-valued) exchange rate, low tariffs (after rebates) on imported inputs including capital, raw materials and intermediate inputs, trade credits for exporters, development of ports and harbors and other infrastructure Export orientation also implies that investment must be market-directed as opposed to government-directed (a country cannot afford to subsidize losses indefinitely in the face of competition in the open world market) Export orientation facilitates foreign direct investment and foreign loans (because of the ease of repayment and repatriation) Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 25 Export Orientation Export orientation encourages the adoption/importation of new technology and know-how International competition requires efficient operations for survival Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 26 The Concept of Comparative Advantage: A Simple Two-Country, Two-Good Model Country A Country B Natural Endowments of Labor 10 10 Labor Required per Unit of Good I 1 2 Labor Required per Unit of Good II 2 5 Country A is therefore more efficient then Country B in the production of every good Question: Is there any gain for Country A to trade with Country B? Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 27 Production and Consumption Patterns in the Absence of International Trade Let us suppose that in the absence of international trade, the pattern of production (and consumption) is given by: Country A Country B World Units of Good I 6 2.5 8.5 Units of Good II 2 1 3 It may be verified that labor is fully employed in both countries Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 28 A Possible Production Pattern with International Trade With international trade, a possible pattern of production is given by: Country A Country B World Units of Good I 4 5 9 Units of Good II 3 0 3 It may be verified that labor is fully employed in both countries Thus, the World can be better off with international trade in the sense that the total availability of goods is enhanced International trade expands the production/consumption possibilities of the world--when international trade is first introduced, total world GNP is increased (one-time) Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 29 A Possible Consumption Pattern with International Trade With international trade and the above pattern of production, a possible pattern of consumption is given by: Country A Country B World Units of Good I 6.25 2.75 9 Units of Good II 2 1 3 It may be verified that total world consumption is equal to total world production of each good In this case, country A trades 1 unit of good II with country B for 2.25 units of good I. Both countries are better off with trade than without trade Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 30 Another Possible Consumption Pattern with International Trade With international trade and the above pattern of production, a possible pattern of consumption is given by: Country A Country B World Units of Good I 6.01 2.99 9 Units of Good II 2 1 3 It may be verified that total world consumption is again equal to total world production of each good In this case, country A trades 1 unit of good II with country B for 2.01 units of good I. Both countries are still better off with trade than without trade. But note that the distribution of the gains from trade is changed. Country A does not gain as much under this alternative scenario as under the previous scenario. Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 31 A Third Possible Consumption Pattern with International Trade It is also possible to have most of the gains appropriated by Country A--such a possible pattern of consumption is given by: Country A Country B World Units of Good I 6.49 2.51 9 Units of Good II 2 1 3 In this case, country A trades 1 unit of good II with country B for 2.49 units of good I. Both countries are still better off with trade than without trade. Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 32 The Distribution of Gains from Voluntary International Trade is Indeterminate What these examples illustrate is that while voluntary international trade brings gains to everyone, the distribution of gains from trade, or the terms of trade, is not uniquely determined by the principles of comparative advantage alone but depends on the relative bargaining power of the trading partners Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 33 Is Free Trade Always Good? Voluntary international trade is always beneficial to both trading partner countries However, transitional assistance may be required (retraining, unemployment insurance) Protection can be justified under the “infant industry argument” Economies of scale Learning by doing Predatory competition Sunset provision Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 34 Empirical Regularities Large economies have low trade/GDP ratios e.g., United States, Japan, China Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 35 The Effect of Size: Trade/GDP Ratio versus GDP Trade as a Percent of GDP versus GDP, 1995 Trade as a Percent of GDP versus GDP, 1995 350 300 Trade (% of GDP) 1995 250 200 150 100 50 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 GDP, millions Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 36 The Export/GDP Ratio and GNP per Capita Exports/GDP and GNP per capita, 1995 160 Exports/GDP Non-Oil Producers 1995 Exports/GDP Oil Producers 1995 Exports/GDP, Percent 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 GNP per capita Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 37 The Effect of Size: Export/GDP Ratio versus Population E xpo rt-G D P R a tio a nd P o pula tio n 160 Export-G D P R atio (pe rce nt) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 10 100 1 ,0 0 0 1 0 ,0 0 0 Population (millions ) Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 38 Exports as a Percent of GDP: Selected East Asian Economies Exports as a Percentage of GDP % HONG KONG INDIA INDONESIA KOREA MALAYSIA SINGAPORE THAILAND CHINA Japan Taiwan PHILIPPINES 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 0 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 39 Exports to U.S. as a Percent of Total Exports Exports to U.S. as a Percent of Total Exports % 60 China Hong Kong India Indonesia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Korea Maylaysia 50 40 30 20 10 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 0 Year Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 40 The Importance of Exports in the East Asian Economies While exports is a very high percentage of GDP in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan, it is a relatively low percentage of the Chinese economy, amounting to approximately 20 percent The proportion of total exports destined for the U.S. has generally declined in the East Asian economies over the years, to less than 30 percent The one exception is the Chinese economy, where the proportion of Chinese exports destined for the U.S. has been rising to its current level of approximately 20 percent Overall, the East Asian economies export approximately 50% of their total exports to other East Asian economies Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 41 Reliance on the Private Sector Reliance on the private sector means mistakes are corrected immediately--the public sector takes a long time to correct mistakes because it has deep pockets and operates with “other people’s money” Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford University 42