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Size and Growth: Thorvaldur Gylfason Big countries and small To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway: Small countries are different from big ones in that … … they have fewer people Do small countries differ also in other respects? If so, how? What are the benefits and costs of being small? What are the challenges for future? Blessing or curse? Controversial issue “Our shortage of people is our most serious social evil,” said our national poet, Einar Benediktsson Consider arguments and evidence Being small: Benefits Homogeneous population Social cohesion is good for growth Openness to trade and investment Being small and closed is not an option Small agriculture and natural resource base Too much agriculture impedes growth Everyone knows practically everything about everybody else Being small: Costs Economies of scale and scope Public sector, defense Private sector Lack of diversification Vulnerable to external shocks Poor location Remote, landlocked High transport costs Few like Mozart, and far between Empirical evidence: Sample of countries There are now 207 countries in all reporting to World Bank, and Taiwan Of these, 61 have fewer than 1.3 million inhabitants … … and 18 have fewer than 100,000 So, there are 43 countries with population between 0.1 million and 1.3 million Of which, 26 are islands: Our sample Sample of 26 small island economies I Bahamas Bahrain Barbados Cape Verde Channel Islands Comoros Cyprus Fiji French Polynesia Guam Population1 298 666 267 428 149 544 761 801 231 152 GNP per capita2 15,500 11,600* 14,000 4,500 1,400 19,100 4,800 22,200 Figures refer to 1999. GNP is adjusted for purchasing power parity. Sample of 26 small island economies II Population Iceland 278 Maldives 269 Malta 379 Mauritius 1,174 Mayotte 140 Micronesia 116 Netherlands Antilles 215 New Caledonia 209 Samoa 169 Sao Tome & Principe 145 GNP per capita 27,200 3,400* 22,900 9,000 21,100 4,100 1,300 Figures refer to 1999. GNP is adjusted for purchasing power parity. Sample of 26 small island economies III Population Solomon Islands 429 St. Lucia 154 St. Vincent & Grenadines 114 Trinidad & Tobago 1,293 Vanuatu 193 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 120 GNP per capita 2,100 5,200 5,000 7,700 2,900 Average for all 26 373 9,600 Average for world 28,740 6,900 Figures refer to 1999. GNP is adjusted for purchasing power parity. Empirical evidence: Research strategy Compare small island economies with world economy at large Stress variables that have proved to be strong and robust determinants of economic growth across countries Openness to trade and investment Education and health Manufacturing vs. natural resources Investment Exports and FDI 1960-99 (% of GDP) 45 Small states 40 World 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Exports FDI (net) 1970-99 Duties and reserves 1960-99 (% of imports) 16 Small states World 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Import duties Reserves (months) Education 1960-99 (%) 60 Small states World 50 40 30 20 10 0 Secondary enrolment Public spending/GNP Health 1990-99 (%) 80 Small states World 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Life expectancy 1999 (years) Health spending/GDP Government spending 1960-99 (% of GDP) 25 Small states World 20 15 10 5 0 Government spending Military spending 1985-97 Manufacturing exports 1963-99 (% of exports) 70 Small states World 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Manufacturing export share High-tech export share 1988-99 Agriculture and personal computers 1960-99 120 100 Small states World 80 60 40 20 0 Agriculture (% of Computers per GDP) 1000 inhabitants* Investment and growth 1960-99 (%) 30 25 Small states World 20 15 10 5 0 2.1% 2.0% Investment/GDP Growth per capita* Investment and growth 1960-99 (%) 30 25 Small states World 20 15 10 5 0 2.1% 2.0% Investment/GDP Growth per capita* Empirical evidence: Conclusion Small countries seem remarkably similar to larger ones More More More More More open to trade, yes public expenditure on education – and better? – investment government spending dependent on natural resources In sum, their growth performance has been similar as elsewhere Empirical evidence: Conclusion This is good news Many have expressed concern that small is more dangerous than beautiful The key to further economic success is greater openness to trade and also investment to break outside the confines of small domestic markets Small countries must have market access Can buy insurance against trade risks Must share gains from trade fairly