Download LAC-KLEMS

LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated
Approach to Evaluate the
Economic and Social Impact of
ICT in Latin America
Nanno Mulder – ECLAC
Outline
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal
Background
– Low economic growth since 1980s …
– … although from 2003 to 2007 growth
accelerated to above 4% …
– … and employment grew and
unemployment fell
– … while investment increased
Average per capita GDP growth in Latin
America and the Caribbean is over 3% per year
between 2003 and 2009
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH RATES
(Percentages)
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
-5%
No similar growth period has been seen for 40 years
Growth is accompanied by an improvement in
labour market indicators
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Employment rate (left axis)
Unemployment rate (right axis)
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
6.0
2002
50.0
2001
7.0
2000
51.0
1999
8.0
1998
52.0
1997
9.0
1996
53.0
1995
10.0
1994
54.0
1993
11.0
1992
55.0
1991
12.0
1990
56.0
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal
Growth accounting research on LAC
Research has been done on macro-performance
using growth accounts (e.g. Elías, 1992;
Hofman, 2000; many national studies)
• But little analysis on role of sectors in
economic growth and importance of ICT (e.g.
Coremberg, 2004 and de Vries, Mulder, dal
Borgo and Hofman, 2007)
Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)
Source: Aravena, Jofré y Villareal (forthcoming)
Source: De Vries, Mulder & Hofman (forthcoming)
Role of mobile communications in growth
• Project with Internet Interdisciplinary Institute
(Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) & Telefonica
• Goals
Measurement of investment and prices of
mobile communications using “microdata”
Measurement of contribution of mobile
services to productivity in Latin America
Period: October 08 – April 09
- Introduction & background
- Recent growth accounting research
- LAC-KLEMS proposal
Why LAC-KLEMS?
• Little knowledge on MFP at industry level;
hypothesis of strong heterogeneity
• Same it true for meso impact of ICT
• Major shifts in labor market (skilled-unskilled)
 Therefore difficult to define, implement
and evaluate policies related to ICT and
productivity
World-KLEMS
• KLEMS is already applied in European
Union (Un. of Groningen), USA (Harvard
University) and Japan
• Similar efforts now under way in China,
India, amongst others
• In Latin American context: LAC-KLEMS
(Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico)
LAC-KLEMS objectives are to study
• economic growth and productivity at
industry level
• capital formation and technological
change at industry level
• Role of ICT in growth and productivity
• Role of labour and human skills in
growth and changes in the sectoral
composition of the economy
Project outcomes
• Two types of deliverables:
– Analytical database by sector and factor
inputs comparable across countries in Latin
America and elsewhere; complying with
highest quality standards
– Statistical module, data consistent with
those published by NSIs; deviations from
these standard rules should at least be
supported by the NSIs.
Three phases (36 months)
(a) Growth and Productivity Accounts:
– Supply-use tables covering output and inputs
– Labor accounts - quantity (hours) and quality
(gender, age and skill level) by industry
– Capital accounts: investment by asset and
industry, capital service estimates by industry
(user costs)
– Construction of database
Project outcomes
(b) Methodological research on measurement of:
• output and inputs
• education attainment
• capital services, following SNA 1993 recommendations.
… adjust concepts and measurement to reality of
Latin America
• General characteristics: role of informal sector, volatility
• Capital: include land and other natural resources?
Project outcomes (cont.)
(c) Analysis of LAC-KLEMS database
• productivity, production structures
• technology and innovation indicators
• labor market - skill complementarities
• technological progress (innovation)
Consortium members
• Coordinator: ECLAC Santiago, Chile
• Regional members:
Argentina: ECLAC Buenos Aires
INDEC
Brazil: Federal University or Rio de
Janeiro
IBGE
Chile: ECLAC Stgo. and INE
Mexico: to be defined and INEGI
External advisors
• Groningen Growth and Development Centre,
University of Groningen (coordinator WORLDKLEMS)
• Institute of Economic Research of Valencia
(IVIE), Spain
• Harvard University (Prof. Dale Jorgenson)
• OECD (Paul Schreyer)
LAC-KLEMS: A Disaggregated Approach
to Evaluate the Economic and Social
Impact of ICT in Latin America
[email protected]
[email protected]