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PRMPR & PRMED Shared Growth Work Program Ken Simler (PRMPR) PREM Open Forum October 4, 2007 The Why and The How Objective: To improve the quality and policy relevance of shared growth analysis to accelerate poverty reduction. Means: Promoting and facilitating the use of existing and emerging analytical tools to better integrate analysis of growth and poverty by Bank country teams, governments, and donors. Good Examples: Poverty Assessments Examples of Good Practice: Overall Growth-Inequality-Poverty Decomposition Country specific analysis of determinants of shared growth Country specific analysis of priorities for shared growth Micro-Macro Links Poor as Economic Actors Mobility Focus Political Analysis Integrated Poverty and Growth Analysis of: Macroeconomic Stab. Investment Climate Financial Sector Trade Policies Government Inst. Labor Markets Migration Infrastructure Social Sectors Public Transfers Indonesia X X X X X X X Guinea-Bissau X Cambodia Mongolia Honduras Nepal Uganda Domin. Republic X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Good Examples: CEMs Examples of Good Practice: Overall Growth-Inequality-Poverty Decomposition Country specific analysis of determinants of growth Country specific analysis of priorities for growth Micro-Macro Links Poor as Economic Actors Mobility Focus Political Analysis Integrated Poverty and Growth Analysis of: Macroeconomic Stab. Investment Climate Financial Sector Trade Policies Government Inst. Labor Markets Migration Infrastructure Social Sectors Public Transfers Angola Turkey Costa Rica Domin. Republ. Haitit Djibouti Morocco West Bank and Gaza Somalia Iraq X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Good Examples: PERs Examples of Good Practice: Albania Overall Link to PRS Benefit Incidence Analysis Turkey Tanzania Bosn. and Herzeg. Romania Cape Verde X Bulgaria Ghana Monten. Ukraine Swazil. X X Public Service Delivery Assessment Poor as Economic Actors X Mobility Focus Poverty Analysis of: Public Subsidies and Transfers Social Sectors Infrastructure Institutions Financial Sector Labor Markets X X X X X Basic Principles Growth is essential for poverty reduction, but some patterns of growth lead to more poverty reduction than others. Growth and poverty reduction should be viewed as interrelated processes. Improving opportunities for the poor can be through raising labor productivity and earnings in their current sector, or enhancing mobility across sectors. Equality of opportunity is a central consideration for efficiency and growth reasons as well as poverty reduction reasons. Two stages of country-specific shared growth analytics Diagnostic stage: A combination of macro and micro perspectives to identify the country-specific binding constraints for shared growth, and prioritize the most important areas for policy intervention. Response/Intervention stage: In-depth analysis of the relevant sectors or markets identified in the first stage, in order to formulate a country-specific policy response. Toolkit: Shared Growth Analytics Recent growth and poverty trends (past 5 years & 20 years) Sources of growth and poverty reduction GNI & GDP; SI (public, private); GDP and employment shares by sector; SX and patterns; imports (SM); RER; shares in aggregate demand (SI, SX, SG) Poverty profiles, Growth Incidence Curves, Rate of pro-poor growth, growth elasticity of poverty Compare against benchmark countries (regional or otherwise) Sources of growth and changes over time Returns to labor & capital by sector; TFP residual Microdeterminants of income and growth Labor market analysis Human K wage premium and changes over time Labor force participation, internal and international migration Decompositions of growth and poverty reduction Spatial growth patterns (Shared) Growth Diagnostics Setting priorities for policy interventions Second stage analysis: Identifying appropriate policy interventions In-depth analysis of the markets, institutions, and policies that are associated with the binding constraints to shared growth. An array of relevant and practical tools depending on the constraint and country specific circumstances CGE-Microsimulations Special attention to win-win policies Practical Approach Develop core ‘toolkit’ and guidance for integrating growth and poverty analysis, drawing heavily on existing tools and literature. Test toolkits and learning material in a series of country studies to ensure relevance and practicality. Use a flexible, demand-driven approach. PRMED and PRMPR anchors working closely with country teams. Revise and re-test. Disseminate the key lessons in shared growth analytics, highlight good practices, and develop additional learning materials. Continuous feedback on the processes and subject matter from stakeholders. Main Activities and Outputs Country studies DFSG-funded country studies Selected in-depth country studies (country teams + anchor units) Knowledge Management Shared growth toolkit PREM Learning course(s) and workshop(s) BBLs, on-demand country clinics, PREM notes Community of practice on shared growth Annual review of ESW & PRS Web site Questions for Discussion Why is it so difficult to integrate growth and poverty analysis? Does this approach (diagnose then drill down) meet your needs? What kind of support do you need (if any) for integrating poverty and growth analysis? What formats are most useful for disseminating this information?