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Economia internazionale e dello sviluppo: a.a. 2014-15, modulo B Lezione 1: introduzione Stefano Usai email: [email protected] tel.: 070-6753766 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Aspetti organizzativi Lunedì-Martedì-Mercoledì, h 12-14. Lezioni in pdf on line appena possibile Orario ricevimento: il giovedi dalle 12 alle 13. Appuntamenti fuori orario concordati per email Il corso è diviso in due moduli Il corso completo è di 12 crediti, 6 per modulo Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 2 Modulo A e modulo B Modulo A: Economia internazionale Fornire le conoscenze necessarie a comprendere meglio ed analizzare criticamente i meccanismi economici alla base del processo di integrazione economica e di globalizzazione in atto con alcuni approfondimenti tematici e geografici. Modulo B: Economia dello sviluppo Il problema del divario economico tra paesi e regioni è centrale nel dibattito economico e politico. Il corso di economia dello sviluppo si propone di fornire gli strumenti essenziali di analisi teorica e applicata per sviluppare una visione critica rigorosa di questo fenomeno approfondimenti EU topics Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 3 Testo consigliato CRESCITA ECONOMICA PROBLEMI, DATI E METODI DI ANALISI Weil David N. Hoepli Editore, 2007 4 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Indice Uno sguardo d’insieme: I fatti da spiegare - Gli strumenti con cui impostare l’analisi. L’accumulazione dei fattori di produzione: Il capitale fisico - Popolazione e crescita economica - Tendenze future nello sviluppo demografico - Il capitale umano. Produttività: Misurare la produttività - Il ruolo della tecnologia nella crescita economica - La frontiera della tecnologia - Efficienza - La crescita economica in una economia aperta. Fondamenti: Lo stato - La disuguaglianza del reddito - Il contesto culturale - Geografia, clima e risorse naturali - Risorse e ambiente a livello globale. Conclusioni: Cosa abbiamo appreso e cosa resta ancora da capire. Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Programma per l’esame Studiare Capitoli 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12, 13, 14, 15 Millennium Goals Report 2013 Leggere Capitoli 5, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Testi in inglese Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 7 Prova di Esame modulo A: L’esame si compone di due parti prova scritta con due domande a cui rispondere in forma di mini-tema con il dovuto dettaglio analitico e grafico, e una domanda che richiede l’interpretazione di una tabella o un grafico (4 crediti) 2. Report-paese (2 crediti) 1. Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 8 Prova di Esame modulo B L’esame si compone di due parti prova scritta con due domande (su tre) a cui rispondere in forma di mini-tema con il dovuto dettaglio analitico e grafico (4 crediti) 2. Presentazione in classe su un tema di approfondimento per gruppi di quattro/cinque studenti (2 crediti) 1. Impegno/patto: La vostra frequenza Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 9 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 10 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 11 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 12 Temi gruppo 13 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley data note Temi 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Calendario lezioni Lezione frontali 26 novembre non c’è lezione…riprendiamo lunedì 1 dicembre Lezioni presentazioni studenti Proposta: 22-23 dicembre 2014; 7 gennaio; 12-13-14 gennaio 15 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Calendario esami Il corso è di 12 crediti diviso in due moduli, così anche l’esame Le prossime date di esami sono il 19 gennaio e il 10 febbraio…. Ma si tratta di nuovo di un errore Proposta: 30 gennaio e 20 febbraio 16 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Economia internazionale e dello sviluppo – modulo B Economia della crescita e dello sviluppo Stefano Usai Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Chapter 1 THE FACTS TO BE EXPLAINED Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley incipit The consequences for human welfare involved in the questions about the income gap among countries are simply staggering; once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else Robert Lucas, nobel prize Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley http://www.miniature-earth.com/ Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Africa at night Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 21 Asia at night Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 22 Europe at night Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 23 North America at night Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 24 World at night Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Some updated indicators Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 26 Development gap among Italian regions Development gap among provinces Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 27 Development gap among local labour systems Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 28 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 29 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 30 Pre-financial crisis EU regions Sardegna=80,1 Italia=104,8 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 31 Gapminder.org Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 32 Table 1.1 Top Eleven Countries in Year 2009 According to Three Different Measures Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-33 Figure 1.1 The Parade of World Income Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Source: Heston, Summers, and Aten (2011). 1-34 Figure 1.2 GDP per Capita in the United States, 1870–2009 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-35 Figure 1.3 The Effect of Using a Ratio Scale The formula for a trend: Yt+1 = Yt(1+g) Yt+2 = Yt+1(1+g)=Yt(1+g)(1+g) =Yt(1+g)2 Yt+n = Yt(1+g)n Let’s extract the logarithm on both sides: Log(Yt+n) = log(Yt(1+g)n) Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Log(Yt+n) = log(Yt) + nlog(1+g) 1-36 Figure 1.4 GDP per Capita in the United States, 1870–2009 (Ratio Scale) Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-37 Figure 1.5 GDP per Capita in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, 1870–2009... growth vs business cycle Sources: Maddison (1995), Heston, Summers, And Aten (2011). Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-38 Figure 1.6 The Distribution of Growth Rates, 1975–2009 Source: Heston, Summers, and Aten (2011). Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-39 Figure 1.7 GDP per Capita By Country Group, 1820–2008 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Sources: Maddison (2008), Heston, Summers, and Aten (2011). 1-40 Re-emerging economies Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 41 1-41 Figure 1.8 World Inequality and Its Components, 1820–1992 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley Source: Bourguignon and Morrison (2002). 1-42 Millennium Summit • In September 2000, building upon a decade of major United Nations conferences and summits, world leaders came together at United Nations Headquarters in New York to adopt the United Nations Millennium Declaration, committing their nations to a new global partnership to reduce extreme poverty and setting out a series of timebound targets - with a deadline of 2015 - that have become known as the Millennium Development Goals. Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-45 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-46 www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-47 www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-48 Chapter 2 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-49 The Economics of Sylvania and Freedonia: A parable • Why is Silvania so much poorer then its neighbour, Freedonia? • You are hired as a consultant by the king of Silvania: you start by computing GDP • Same population…one eight of the GDP – Capital • investment…saving…(32 times higher in Freedonia than in Silvania): investment rate 4 times higher… but this would produce a difference in GDP per capita of a multiple of only 2 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-50 Other potential factors – Productivity • Technology: the available knowledge on how to combine inputs to produce output • Silvania is 35 years behind… but this explain anotther part of the gap but not all… – Efficiency • Fundamentals – – – – This may be the crucial factor to explain the differences in GDP pc between Silvania and Freedonia Government and Institutions Income inequality Culture Geography and natural resources Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-51 From Parable to practice • Two main causes for growth – The accumulation of inputs – Productivity • Differences in technology • Differences in efficiency It is important to distinguish between proximate causes and ultimate causes Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-52 Figure 2.1 The Production Function Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-53 Figure 2.2 Possible Sources of Differences in Output per Worker Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-54 From income levels to growth rates • What happens to Silvania if the king is deposed and democracy replaces monarchy such as the two countries have the same fundamentals? • Does this imply that the two countries have immediately the same GDP pc? Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-55 What can we learn from data: Relationship between Latitude and Income per Capita Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-56 What can we learn from data: Relationship between Income per Capita and Population Growth Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Addison-Wesley 1-57