Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Ragnar Nurkse's balanced growth theory wikipedia , lookup
Steady-state economy wikipedia , lookup
Gross domestic product wikipedia , lookup
Miracle of Chile wikipedia , lookup
Economic growth wikipedia , lookup
Chinese economic reform wikipedia , lookup
Non-monetary economy wikipedia , lookup
Innovation and Growth in LAC: The Next Generation of Reforms William F. Maloney Office of the Chief Economist, LA, World Bank Why Innovation Push Now? Ongoing work WBI: knowledge economy studies HD: higher education projects FPSI: E-gov, E-Bus. Region- Preoccupation with slowed growth Regional Flagships: From Natural Resources to the Knowledge Economy… Why did LAC’s natural resources sectors underperform Scandinavia, Australia- Lack of innovative capacity Closing the Gaps in Education and Technology-takes a closer look TFP growth faster in agriculture than manufacturing. Half of Growth is Total Factor Productivity TFP growth (1967-1992) 8 France 6 Denmark Italy Sweden Austria 4 Agriculture Turkey Venezuela Average developed countries Japan Tunisia Greece Colombia Chile Canada South Africa UK Kenya Pakistan Sri Lanka 2 India Indonesia Finland Korea Taiwan Philipines Netherlands Peru El Salvador Egypt USA Australia Jamaica Sample Average 0 -6 -4 -2 0 -2 Trinidad & Tobago 2 Average developing countries Costa Rica -4 Manufacturing 4 6 8 LAC- way below R&D Superstars R&D GDP GDP 1 2 GDP CAP CAP 2 5.0% Predicted & Observed R&D/GDP 4.5% 4.0% Israel 3.5% Finland 3.0% 2.5% Korea 2.0% 1.5% China 1.0% India 0.5% Argentina Mexico 0.0% 4 5 6 7 8 Log GDP per Capita 9 10 11 LAC’s efficiency of converting R & D into patents,TFP is also low Patents = B1R&D + Bp country*R&D 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% -5.00% -10.00% NOR FIN ISR KOR TWN VEN URY PER MEX CRI COL CHL BRA 0.00% ARG 5.00% National Innovation System Global Knowledge Economy Human Capital Think Tanks/ Antenna University Innovation Clusters Firms Innovation & TFP Growth Other Public Policies: Rules of the Game Infrastructure (ICT) Subsidies/Tax incentives Coordination Initiatives Global Knowledge Economy Why is LAC not Finland? The challenge ahead Weak human capital Not addressing serious mkt failures in innovation Few incentives to R & D - tax breaks, subsidies Weak efforts to help firms learn Incubators, research parks, consortia Disfunctional NIS: LAC’s NIS-closer to the Holy Roman Empire than Finland. No mkt forces assure elements of NIS work together Missing supporting markets-credit, labor The Bank’s Challenge Hippocratic Oath- “First do no harm” Mkt failures- last refuge of the interventionist scoundrel Innovation: the Trojan horse of state discipline? Bad incentives, institutions already implemented that will be hard to reform- U’s, public labs Commit to a long dialogue Know what we’re talking about! Down to policy details Do/sponsor the LDC research necessary and.. Get our models right: What’s a knowledge economy anyway? What the heck is high tech? Who Should LAC follow? Deviations from expected level 2 0.10 2 FINLANDIA 0.10 COREA Finland Korea 1 0.05 1 0.05 0 0.00 0 0.00 -1 -0.05 -1 -0.05 -2 -0.10 -2 -0.10 1972 IED FDI 1977 1982 I+D R&D 1987 1992 1998 1972 LICENCIAS PAGADAS AL EXT. License Payments 1977 1982 1987 1992 1998 CRECIMIENTO PER CAPITA (eje derech Fuente: Maloney (2004) But Spain, Italy and Portugal follow a different path. 2 0.10 2 0.10 ESPAÑA CHILE Chile Spain 1 0.05 1 0.05 0 0.00 0 0.00 -1 -0.05 -1 -0.05 -2 -0.10 -2 -0.10 1972 IED FDI 1977 1982 I+D R&D 1987 1992 1998 LICENCIAS PAGADAS AL EXT. License Payments 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1998 CRECIMIENTO PER CAPITA (eje derecho) FIN