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Federal Budgets and Public Policy CHAPTER 32 © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 1 Federal Budget Process The federal budget is a plan for government outlays and revenues for a specified period, usually a year Federal outlays include both Government purchases Transfer payments 2 President’s Role in Budget Process Legislation in 1921 created the Office of Management and Budget to examine agency requests and help the president develop a budget proposal President’s budget process usually begins a year before it is submitted to Congress The congressional budget cycle begins in late January once Congress gets The Budget of the United States Government 3 Congressional Role in the Budget Process Once the president’s budget hits Congress, budget committees in both the House and the Senate rework until they agree on total outlays, spending by major category, and expected revenues This agreement, called a budget resolution, establishes a framework to guide spending and revenue decisions The fiscal year runs from October 1 of one year to September 30 of the following year 4 The Budget The size and composition of the budget and the difference between outlays and revenues measure the budget’s fiscal impact When outlays exceed revenues, the budget is in deficit • stimulates aggregate demand in the short run, but reduces national saving which in the long run could impede economic growth Alternatively, when revenues exceed outlays, the budget is in surplus • dampens aggregate demand in the short run, but enhances domestic saving which in the long run could promote economic growth 5 Problems There are a number of problems with the federal budgeting process Continuing Resolutions instead of Budget Decisions: Congress often ignores the budget timetable • budgets typically run on continuing resolutions, which are agreements to allow agencies to spend at the rate of the previous year’s budget Overlapping Committee Authority: requires the executive branch to defend the same section of the president’s budget before several committees in both House and the Senate 6 Problems Lengthy Budget Process: given that the average recession lasts less than a year and that budget preparation begin more than a year and a half before the budget takes effect, planning discretionary fiscal measures to smooth economic fluctuations is difficult Uncontrollable Budget Items: Congress has only limited control over much of the budget. • About three-quarters of federal budget outlays are determined by existing laws. • Congress has little or no say in spending on various entitlement programs 7 Problems No separate capital budget: Congress approves a single budget that mixes capital items with current outlays. • Budgets for businesses and for state and local governments usually distinguish between a capital budget and an operating budget Overly-detailed budget: The federal budget is divided into thousands of accounts and subaccounts and to the extent that the budget is a way of making political payoffs • such micromanagement allows elected officials to reward friends and punish enemies 8 Possible Budget Reforms Possible reforms The annual budget could be converted into a two-year budget, or biennial budget. • The problem is that it would require longer-term economic forecasts less useful as a tool of discretionary fiscal policy Now Congress spends nearly all of the year working on the budget. Executive branch is always dealing with three budgets: • administering an approved budget, • defending a proposed budget before congressional committees, and • preparing the next budget for submission to Congress 9 Possible Budget Reforms Another possible reform could be to simplify the budget document by concentrating only on major groupings and eliminating line items. • Each agency would receive a total budget along with the discretion to allocate this budget • The problem here is that agency heads may have different priorities than those of elected representatives Final reform is to sort federal spending into an operating budget and a capital budget • Capital budget would include spending on physical capital • Operating budget would include spending on all ongoing expenses 10 Budget Philosophies Several budget philosophies have emerged over the years Annually balanced budget: fiscal policy aimed at balancing the budget on an annual basis except during wartime. • Implied that spending increased during expansions and declined during recessions fiscal policy magnified fluctuations in the business cycle Cyclically balanced budget: the budget should be balanced over the course of the business cycle deficits during recessions and surpluses during expansions 11 Budget Philosophies Functional finance says that policy makers should be less concerned with balancing the budget annually, or even over the course of the business cycle, than with ensuring that the economy produces its potential output • if the budgets needed to keep the economy operating at its potential involve chronic deficits, so be it. • Since the Great Depression, this has been the basic approach taken at the federal level 12 Deficits Since 1980 The huge deficits in recent years have come from a combination of tax cuts and spending increases But why has the budget been in deficit for all but 12 years since 1930? The most obvious answer is that, unlike legislatures in 49 states, Congress is not required to balance the budget 13 Deficits Since 1980 But why does Congress like deficits? One widely accepted model of the public sector assumes that elected officials try to maximize their political support, including votes and campaign contributions Voters like public spending programs but hate paying taxes, so spending programs win support and taxes lose it 14 Deficits Since 1980 Because of this asymmetry, candidates try to maximize their chances of getting elected and reelected by offering a budget that is long on benefits but short on taxes deficits Moreover, members of Congress push their favorite programs with little concern about the overall budget 15 Crowding Out and In What effect do federal deficits and surpluses have on interest rates? Suppose the federal government increases spending without raising taxes increases in deficit or declines in the surplus How will this affect, national savings, interest rates, and investment? 16 Crowding Out and In An increase in the deficit or a decrease in the surplus reduces the supply of national savings higher interest rates crowd out some private investment reducing the stimulating effect of the government’s deficit Some argue that the amount of crowding out is relatively small • discretionary fiscal policy will result in a net increase in aggregate demand Others believe the crowding out is more extensive • borrowing from the public in this way results in little or no net increase in aggregate demand 17 Crowding Out and In Another possibility: If the economy is operating well below its potential, the additional fiscal stimulus provided by a larger deficit or a smaller surplus could encourage firms to invest more Recall that an important determinant of investment is business expectations and government stimulus may improve expectations firms more willing to invest crowding in 18 Twin Deficits To finance the huge deficits of the 1980s, the U.S. Treasury had to sell a lot of bonds, pushing up market interest rates foreigners were more willing to buy dollar-denominated bonds foreigners had to exchange their currencies for dollars The greater demand for dollars caused the dollar to appreciate relative to foreign currencies 19 Twin Deficits The rising value of the dollar made foreign goods cheaper in the U.S. and U.S. goods more expensive abroad foreign trade deficit increased The higher trade deficits meant that foreigners were accumulating dollars and with these dollars purchased U.S. assets, including U.S. government bonds thereby helping to fund the deficits 20 Budget Surplus In the early 1990s, outlays started to decline relative to GDP, while revenues increased deficit declined and, by 1998, created a budget surplus What turned a hefty deficit into a surplus, and why has the surplus slipped lately? Tax increases during the elder President Bush and President Clinton terms Vigorous recovery during the 1990s Slower growth in Federal Outlays Reversal in 2001 21 Relative Size of the Public Sector Exhibit 4 shows government outlays at all levels of government relative to GDP in ten industrial economies in 1993 and in 2000 Government outlays in the United States in 2000 were 29.3% relative to GDP, the smallest share in the group and between 1993 and 2000 declined in nine of the ten industrial countries 22 National Debt The federal deficit is a flow variable measuring the amount by which outlays exceed revenues in a particular year The federal debt, or the national debt, is a stock variable measuring the accumulation of past deficits the total amount owed by the federal government Changes over time U.S. debt levels compared to those in other countries Interest on the debt Prospect of paying off the debt 23 Changes over Time Distinction between the gross debt and the debt held by the public Gross debt includes U.S. Treasury securities purchased by various federal agencies debt owed to itself Debt held by the public includes debt held by households, firms, banks, and foreign entities As of 2001, the gross federal debt stood at about $5.8 trillion and the debt held by the public stood at $3.4 trillion 24 Changes over Time One way to measure debt over time is relative to the economy’s GDP The changes in the debt mirror the changes that have occurred in the deficit / surplus segment of the federal budget 25 International Perspective How does the government debt in the United States compare with debt levels in other countries? 26 Interest on the National Debt Because most federal securities are short term, the national debt “turns over” rapidly Nearly half the debt is refinanced every year debt service payments are quite sensitive to movements in the interest rate Interest payments on the national debt have increased from 8% of the federal budget in 1978 to 12% in 2001 27 Who Bears the Burden of the Debt Deficit spending is a way of billing future taxpayers for current spending The national debt raises moral questions about the right of one generation to taxpayers to bequeath to the next generation the burden of its borrowing To what extent do budget deficits shift the burden to future generations? 28 We Owe It To Ourselves It is often argued that the debt is not a burden to future generations because, although they must service the debt, those same generations receive the debt service payments It’s true that if U.S. citizens forgo present consumption to buy bonds, they or their heirs will receive the interest payments debt service payments stay in the country it’s all in the family 29 Foreign Ownership of Debt The “we owe it to ourselves” argument does not apply to that portion of the national debt purchased by foreigners Foreigners who buy U.S. government bonds forgo present consumption and are paid back in the future A reliance on foreigners increases the burden of the debt on future generations because future debt service payments no longer remain in the country 30 Crowding Out and Capital Formation As previously noted, government borrowing can drive up interest rates and crowd out some private investment by making it more costly The long-run effect of deficit spending depends on how the government spends the borrowed funds If they are used in public investments there may be no harmful effects on the economy’s long-run productive capabilities 31 Crowding Out and Capital Formation If the additional borrowed dollars go toward current consumption, less capital formation will result With less investment today, there will be a smaller endowment of capital equipment and technology slower growth of labor productivity in the future Despite the large federal deficits of the 1980s and early 1990s, public investments in capital declined 32 Paying off the Debt What impact do surpluses have on the economy? In the short run a federal surplus could reduce aggregate demand, which would worsen a recession but relieve inflationary pressure during good times A budget surplus would also increase the national saving rate, which should reduce interest rates in the long run investment should increase more capital per worker more income and tax revenues 33 Paying off the Debt Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan felt that eliminating public debt has a small downside Treasury debt provides an asset that is free of risk which is a characteristic that is attractive to many investors particularly during times of turbulence They also offer a benchmark for pricing riskier debt 34 Paying off the Debt In this fashion, a budget surplus could be self-reinforcing If the surplus is used to pay down the national debt, this over time would reduce the cost of servicing the remaining debt • gradually freeing up budget dollars for tax cuts, other spending programs, or • still more pay down of the national debt 35