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9. ISLM model CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 0 In this lecture, you will learn… an introduction to business cycle and aggregate demand the IS curve, and its relation to the Keynesian cross the loanable funds model the LM curve, and its relation to the theory of liquidity preference how the IS-LM model determines income and the interest rate in the short run when P is fixed CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 1 Short run In the following lectures, we will study the shortrun fluctuations of the economy (business cycles) We focus on three models: ISLM model (lecture 9) Mudell-Fleming model (lecture 10) Model AS-AD AD (lectures 9 and 10) AS (lecture 11) CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 2 Facts about the business cycle GDP growth averages 3–3.5 percent per year over the long run with large fluctuations in the short run. Consumption and investment fluctuate with GDP, but consumption tends to be less volatile and investment more volatile than GDP. Unemployment rises during recessions and falls during expansions. Okun’s Law: the negative relationship between GDP and unemployment. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 3 Growth rates of real GDP, consumption Percent 10 change from 4 8 quarters earlier 6 Real GDP growth rate Consumption growth rate Average 4 growth rate 2 0 -2 -4 1975 1980 1985 Fluctuations 1990 1995 CHAPTER1970 9 Introduction to Economic 2000 2005 slide 4 Growth rates of real GDP, consumption, investment Percent 40 change from 4 30 quarters earlier 20 10 Investment growth rate Real GDP growth rate 0 -10 Consumption growth rate -20 -30 1975 1980 1985 Fluctuations 1990 1995 CHAPTER1970 9 Introduction to Economic 2000 2005 slide 5 Unemployment Percent 12 of labor force 10 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1980 1985 Fluctuations 1990 1995 CHAPTER1970 9 Introduction to Economic 2000 2005 slide 6 Okun’s Law Percentage 10 change in real GDP 8 1951 Y 3.5 2 u Y 1966 1984 6 2003 4 1987 2 0 1975 2001 -2 1991 1982 -4 -3 CHAPTER 9 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 in unemploymentslide rate7 Introduction to EconomicChange Fluctuations Time horizons in macroeconomics Long run: Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand. Short run: Many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level. The economy behaves much differently when prices are sticky. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 8 Recap of classical macro theory (Chaps. 3-8) Output is determined by the supply side: supplies of capital, labor technology. Changes in demand for goods & services (C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities. Assumes complete price flexibility. Applies to the long run. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 9 When prices are sticky… …output and employment also depend on demand, which is affected by fiscal policy (G and T ) monetary policy (M ) other factors, like exogenous changes in C or I. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 10 The model of aggregate demand and supply the paradigm most mainstream economists and policymakers use to think about economic fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy shows how the price level and aggregate output are determined shows how the economy’s behavior is different in the short run and long run CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 11 IS-LM This chapter develops the IS-LM model, the basis of the aggregate demand curve. We focus on the short run and assume the price level is fixed. This lecture focuses on the closed-economy case. Next lecture presents the open-economy case. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 12 The Keynesian Cross A simple closed economy model in which income is determined by expenditure. (due to J.M. Keynes) Notation: I = planned investment E = C + I + G = planned expenditure Y = real GDP = actual expenditure Difference between actual & planned expenditure = unplanned inventory investment CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 13 Elements of the Keynesian Cross consumption function: C C (Y T ) govt policy variables: G G , T T for now, planned investment is exogenous: planned expenditure: I I E C (Y T ) I G equilibrium condition: actual expenditure = planned expenditure Y E CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 14 Graphing planned expenditure E planned expenditure E =C +I +G MPC 1 income, output, Y CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 15 Graphing the equilibrium condition E E =Y planned expenditure 45º income, output, Y CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 16 The equilibrium value of income E E =Y planned expenditure E =C +I +G income, output, Y Equilibrium income CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 17 An increase in government purchases E At Y1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… E =C +I +G2 E =C +I +G1 G …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium. CHAPTER 9 Y E1 = Y1 Y E2 = Y 2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 18 Solving for Y Y C I G equilibrium condition Y C I G in changes C G MPC Y G Collect terms with Y on the left side of the equals sign: (1 MPC) Y G CHAPTER 9 because I exogenous because C = MPC Y Solve for Y : 1 Y G 1 MPC Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 19 The government purchases multiplier Definition: the increase in income resulting from a $1 increase in G. In this model, the govt purchases multiplier equals Y 1 G 1 MPC Example: If MPC = 0.8, then Y 1 5 G 1 0.8 CHAPTER 9 An increase in G causes income to increase 5 times as much! Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 20 Why the multiplier is greater than 1 Initially, the increase in G causes an equal increase in Y: Y = G. But Y C further Y further C further Y So the final impact on income is much bigger than the initial G. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 21 An increase in taxes E Initially, the tax increase reduces consumption, and therefore E: E =C1 +I +G E =C2 +I +G At Y1, there is now an unplanned inventory buildup… C = MPC T …so firms reduce output, and income falls toward a new equilibrium CHAPTER 9 Y E2 = Y2 Y E1 = Y1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 22 Solving for Y eq’m condition in changes Y C I G I and G exogenous C MPC Y T Solving for Y : Final result: CHAPTER 9 (1 MPC) Y MPC T MPC Y T 1 MPC Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 23 The tax multiplier def: the change in income resulting from a $1 increase in T : Y T MPC 1 MPC If MPC = 0.8, then the tax multiplier equals Y T CHAPTER 9 0.8 0.8 4 1 0.8 0.2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 24 The tax multiplier …is negative: A tax increase reduces C, which reduces income. …is greater than one (in absolute value): A change in taxes has a multiplier effect on income. …is smaller than the govt spending multiplier: Consumers save the fraction (1 – MPC) of a tax cut, so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut is smaller than from an equal increase in G. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 25 The IS curve def: a graph of all combinations of r and Y that result in goods market equilibrium i.e. actual expenditure (output) = planned expenditure The equation for the IS curve is: Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 26 Deriving the IS curve E =Y E =C +I (r )+G 2 E r E =C +I (r1 )+G I E Y I r Y1 Y Y2 r1 r2 IS Y1 CHAPTER 9 Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 27 Why the IS curve is negatively sloped A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to increase investment spending, which drives up total planned spending (E ). To restore equilibrium in the goods market, output (a.k.a. actual expenditure, Y ) must increase. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 28 The IS curve and the loanable funds model (a) The L.F. model r S2 (b) The IS curve r S1 r2 r2 r1 r1 I (r ) S, I CHAPTER 9 IS Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y1 Y slide 29 Fiscal Policy and the IS curve We can use the IS-LM model to see how fiscal policy (G and T ) affects aggregate demand and output. Let’s start by using the Keynesian cross to see how fiscal policy shifts the IS curve… CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 30 Shifting the IS curve: G At any value of r, G E Y E =Y E =C +I (r )+G 1 2 E E =C +I (r1 )+G1 …so the IS curve shifts to the right. The horizontal distance of the IS shift equals r Y1 r1 Y 1 Y G 1 MPC Y1 CHAPTER 9 Y Y2 IS1 Y2 IS2 Y Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 31 The Theory of Liquidity Preference Due to John Maynard Keynes. A simple theory in which the interest rate is determined by money supply and money demand. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 32 Money supply r The supply of real money balances is fixed: M interest rate M P s P M P s M P CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations M/P real money balances slide 33 Money demand r Demand for real money balances: M P d interest rate M P s L (r ) L (r ) M P CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations M/P real money balances slide 34 Equilibrium The interest rate adjusts to equate the supply and demand for money: r interest rate M P r1 L (r ) M P L (r ) M P CHAPTER 9 s Introduction to Economic Fluctuations M/P real money balances slide 35 How the Fed raises the interest rate r To increase r, Fed reduces M interest rate r2 r1 L (r ) M2 P CHAPTER 9 M1 P Introduction to Economic Fluctuations M/P real money balances slide 36 CASE STUDY: Monetary Tightening & Interest Rates Late 1970s: > 10% Oct 1979: Fed Chairman Paul Volcker announces that monetary policy would aim to reduce inflation Aug 1979-April 1980: Fed reduces M/P 8.0% Jan 1983: = 3.7% How do you think this policy change would affect nominal interest rates? CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 37 Monetary Tightening & Rates, cont. The effects of a monetary tightening on nominal interest rates model short run long run Liquidity preference Quantity theory, Fisher effect (Keynesian) (Classical) prices sticky flexible prediction i > 0 i < 0 actual outcome 8/1979: i = 10.4% 8/1979: i = 10.4% 4/1980: i = 15.8% 1/1983: i = 8.2% The LM curve Now let’s put Y back into the money demand function: d M P L (r ,Y ) The LM curve is a graph of all combinations of r and Y that equate the supply and demand for real money balances. The equation for the LM curve is: M P L (r ,Y ) CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 39 Deriving the LM curve (a) The market for r real money balances (b) The LM curve r LM r2 r2 L (r , Y2 ) r1 r1 L (r , Y1 ) M1 P CHAPTER 9 M/P Y1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y2 Y slide 40 Why the LM curve is upward sloping An increase in income raises money demand. Since the supply of real balances is fixed, there is now excess demand in the money market at the initial interest rate. The interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 41 How M shifts the LM curve (a) The market for r real money balances (b) The LM curve r LM2 LM1 r2 r2 r1 r1 L ( r , Y1 ) M2 P CHAPTER 9 M1 P M/P Y1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 42 Policy analysis with the IS -LM model Y C (Y T ) I (r ) G r LM M P L (r ,Y ) We can use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of r1 • fiscal policy: G and/or T • monetary policy: M CHAPTER 9 IS Y1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 44 An increase in government purchases 1. IS curve shifts right 1 by G 1 MPC causing output & income to rise. 2. This raises money demand, causing the interest rate to rise… r 2. r2 r1 3. …which reduces investment, so the final increase in Y 1 is smaller than G 1 MPC CHAPTER 9 LM IS2 1. IS1 Y1 Y2 Y 3. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 45 A tax cut Consumers save r (1MPC) of the tax cut, so the initial boost in spending is smaller for T r2 than for an equal G… 2. r1 and the IS curve shifts by 1. LM 1. MPC T 1 MPC 2. …so the effects on r and Y are smaller for T than for an equal G. CHAPTER 9 IS2 IS1 Y1 Y2 Y 2. Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 46 Monetary policy: An increase in M 1. M > 0 shifts the LM curve down (or to the right) 2. …causing the interest rate to fall 3. …which increases investment, causing output & income to rise. CHAPTER 9 r LM1 LM2 r1 r2 IS Y1 Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 47 Interaction between monetary & fiscal policy Model: Monetary & fiscal policy variables (M, G, and T ) are exogenous. Real world: Monetary policymakers may adjust M in response to changes in fiscal policy, or vice versa. Such interaction may alter the impact of the original policy change. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 48 The Fed’s response to G > 0 Suppose Congress increases G. Possible Fed responses: 1. hold M constant 2. hold r constant 3. hold Y constant In each case, the effects of the G are different: CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 49 Response 1: Hold M constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right. r If Fed holds M constant, then LM curve doesn’t shift. r2 r1 LM1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y Y 2 Y1 r r2 r1 CHAPTER 9 Y1 Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 50 Response 2: Hold r constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right. To keep r constant, Fed increases M to shift LM curve right. r LM1 r2 r1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y Y 3 Y1 LM2 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y r 0 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 51 Response 3: Hold Y constant If Congress raises G, the IS curve shifts right. To keep Y constant, Fed reduces M to shift LM curve left. LM2 LM1 r r3 r2 r1 IS2 IS1 Results: Y 0 Y1 Y2 Y r r3 r1 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 52 Estimates of fiscal policy multipliers from the DRI macroeconometric model Assumption about monetary policy Estimated value of Y / G Estimated value of Y / T Fed holds money supply constant 0.60 0.26 Fed holds nominal interest rate constant 1.93 1.19 CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 53 IS-LM and aggregate demand So far, we’ve been using the IS-LM model to analyze the short run, when the price level is assumed fixed. However, a change in P would shift LM and therefore affect Y. The aggregate demand curve (introduced in Chap. 9) captures this relationship between P and Y. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 54 Deriving the AD curve r Intuition for slope of AD curve: P (M/P ) LM shifts left r I Y LM(P2) LM(P1) r2 r1 IS P Y2 Y P2 P1 AD Y2 CHAPTER 9 Y1 Y1 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y slide 55 Monetary policy and the AD curve The Fed can increase aggregate demand: M LM shifts right r LM(M1/P1) LM(M2/P1) r1 r2 IS r I P Y at each value of P P1 Y1 Y1 CHAPTER 9 Y2 Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations Y AD2 AD1 Y slide 56 Fiscal policy and the AD curve Expansionary fiscal policy (G and/or T ) increases agg. demand: r LM r2 r1 IS2 T C IS1 IS shifts right P Y1 Y2 Y Y at each value P1 of P Y1 CHAPTER 9 Y2 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations AD2 AD1 Y slide 57 IS-LM and AD-AS in the short run & long run Recall from Chapter 9: The force that moves the economy from the short run to the long run is the gradual adjustment of prices. In the short-run equilibrium, if CHAPTER 9 then over time, the price level will Y Y rise Y Y fall Y Y remain constant Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 58 The Big Picture Keynesian Cross Theory of Liquidity Preference IS curve LM curve IS-LM model Agg. demand curve Agg. supply curve CHAPTER 9 Explanation of short-run fluctuations Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 59 Chapter Summary 1. Keynesian cross basic model of income determination takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous fiscal policy has a multiplier effect on income. 2. IS curve comes from Keynesian cross when planned investment depends negatively on interest rate shows all combinations of r and Y that equate planned expenditure with actual expenditure on goods & services CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 60 Chapter Summary 3. Theory of Liquidity Preference basic model of interest rate determination takes money supply & price level as exogenous an increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate 4. LM curve comes from liquidity preference theory when money demand depends positively on income shows all combinations of r and Y that equate demand for real money balances with supply CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 61 Chapter Summary 5. IS-LM model Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point (Y, r ) that satisfies equilibrium in both the goods and money markets. CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 62 Chapter Summary 2. AD curve shows relation between P and the IS-LM model’s equilibrium Y. negative slope because P (M/P ) r I Y expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right. expansionary monetary policy shifts LM curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right. IS or LM shocks shift the AD curve. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 63 APPENDIX: The Great Depression CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 64 The Great Depression 30 Unemployment (right scale) 220 25 200 20 180 15 160 10 Real GNP (left scale) 140 120 1929 CHAPTER 9 5 percent of labor force billions of 1958 dollars 240 0 1931 1933 1935 1937 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations 1939 slide 65 THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS: Shocks to the IS curve asserts that the Depression was largely due to an exogenous fall in the demand for goods & services – a leftward shift of the IS curve. evidence: output and interest rates both fell, which is what a leftward IS shift would cause. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 66 THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS: Reasons for the IS shift Stock market crash exogenous C Oct-Dec 1929: S&P 500 fell 17% Oct 1929-Dec 1933: S&P 500 fell 71% Drop in investment “correction” after overbuilding in the 1920s widespread bank failures made it harder to obtain financing for investment Contractionary fiscal policy Politicians raised tax rates and cut spending to combat increasing deficits. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 67 THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS: A shock to the LM curve asserts that the Depression was largely due to huge fall in the money supply. evidence: M1 fell 25% during 1929-33. But, two problems with this hypothesis: P fell even more, so M/P actually rose slightly during 1929-31. nominal interest rates fell, which is the opposite of what a leftward LM shift would cause. CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 68 THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN: The effects of falling prices asserts that the severity of the Depression was due to a huge deflation: P fell 25% during 1929-33. This deflation was probably caused by the fall in M, so perhaps money played an important role after all. In what ways does a deflation affect the economy? CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 69 THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN: The effects of falling prices The stabilizing effects of deflation: P (M/P ) LM shifts right Y Pigou effect: P (M/P ) consumers’ wealth C IS shifts right Y CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 70 THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN: The effects of falling prices The destabilizing effects of expected deflation: e r for each value of i I because I = I (r ) planned expenditure & agg. demand income & output CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 71 THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN: The effects of falling prices The destabilizing effects of unexpected deflation: debt-deflation theory P (if unexpected) transfers purchasing power from borrowers to lenders borrowers spend less, lenders spend more if borrowers’ propensity to spend is larger than lenders’, then aggregate spending falls, the IS curve shifts left, and Y falls CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 72