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Monetary Policy By Teresa Stearns Background Information What is monetary policy? Who conducts monetary policy? • FOMC Main Goals Price stability High employment Economic growth Stabilize foreign exchange rates Goals of Monetary Policy Provide price stability • Inflation-creates chain reaction Supplier passes on to customer (Monaco Coach) • What does Fed do to counteract inflation? Increase interest rates • Goal of zero inflation? Goals of Monetary Policy Slow growth of money and credit Rapid growth of money and credit People and businesses cannot make major purchases Unemployment and/or recession Economy cannot produce goods and services fast enough Inflation Goals of Monetary Policy Create high employment • Is it reasonable to want full employment? No, because of frictional unemployment • What happens when the unemployment rate gets to high? Stimulate economy by increasing money supply Decrease interest rate Goals of Monetary Policy Create economic growth • Need to increase the output of goods and services • Needs to be steady and sustainable • Provide high employment • How can we stabilize the economy in the short-run? Decrease interest rates Goals of Monetary Policy Stability in foreign exchange rates • What happens when Fed increases interest rates? Value of dollar rises • Strong dollar vs Weak dollar • Who benefits? Goals of Monetary Policy Value of dollar Impact on imports/exports Falls Rises Cost of imports rise Cost of exports fall Cost of imports fall Cost of exports rises Increases U.S. inflation Boosts U.S. output Decreases U.S. inflation Reduces U.S. output Tools used to implement Monetary Policy Reserve requirements Discount window Open market operations Reserve Requirements Purpose? Two components • Required reserves Vault cash Reserve balances Amounts are determined by required reserve ratio • Excess reserves Can borrow from other banks in federal funds market Reserve Requirements Increase in required reserves • Reduces bank lending • Decreases spending for consumers • Businesses can’t expand Decrease in required reserves • Increases lending by banks • More spending • Increases employment Discount Window What is the discount window used for? • Banks can borrow from Fed when they can’t meet their required reserve amounts • Borrow at discount rate Set above federal funds rate • Used as a last resort Discount Window Strict guidelines when borrowing Many fear using discount window • Produces bad image Increase discount rate • Slows economy Decrease discount rate • Stimulates economy Open Market Operations When the Fed buys and sells government securities • Transactions take place through Trading Desk at NY Federal Reserve • Huge dollar transactions Impact of buying and selling…… Open Market Transactions When the Fed Eases When the Fed Tightens Fed buys government securities from a firm that deals in them. Fed sells government securities to a firm that deals in them. It pays by crediting the account that the dealer’s bank has at the Fed. It pays by debiting the account that the dealer’s bank has at the Fed. The bank in turn credits the dealer’s account. The bank in turn debits the dealer’s account. The banking system has more funds to lend. The banking system has fewer funds to lend. Downward pressure on the federal funds rate—i.e. the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Upward pressure on the federal funds rate. Influences the other interest rates in the economy— which also go down. Other interest rates in the economy also rise as a result. Gives the economy a boost. Slows the economy and curbs inflation. Limitations of Monetary Policy Does not have direct control over its outcomes • Primary use of interest rates Lack up to the minute, reliable info • Use of various models • Revisions of data Limitations of Monetary Policy Unexpected changes in supply and demand • “shocks” Trade-off in goals • Which is more important? Timing • Can take months to years to see effects Conclusion Must consider all factors before announcing to public. Can have huge impact with even the slightest changes. They can only forecast to the best of their ability. Biggest variable of all…..consumer.