Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Albanian Economy in the BoA Annual Report. Explanation of Structure and concrete data. lecture of Prof. Dr. Shkelqim Cani Bank of Albania Governor Shkoder, 09 Prill 2004 www.bankofalbania.org email:[email protected] Table of Content: World Economy - Economic-financial developments and % of interest - Region economies Albanian economy - Overall product by producing sectors Labour market Fiscal sector developments Inflation developments and monetary policy Balance of payments Foreign exchange reserve and its management Banking system performance Why this content: Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 2 Bank of Albania Annual Report, 2003 World Economy - - Euro is appreciated against American dollar by 21%. The effects are felt even in the Albanian economy. ECB’s and Fed’s monetary policy are smoothing, base interest rates of euro are reduced by (2%) and dollar by (1%). European economy has a lower growth rate than that of America, respectively 0.4 and 3.1 %. Region economy has satisfactory growth rates (about 4 %). We highlight: Insecurities created from the War in Iraq Non-real price rise in capital markets of USA. Obvious effects provided by SARS epidemic. Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 3 Development by sectors -Services sector’s weight in GDP is increased (46.1 %) -Agriculture contribution to economic growth has declined ( 24.7 %) -Industrial output is increased, occupying 10.2 % of GDP. -Construction is one of the most dynamic sectors of economy (over 20% growth). -Modest growth (3 %) of investments in transport. -Domestic savings areLeksion increased by 1 %. (4 % of GDP). i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 5 Some indicators of Albanian economy over 8 last years 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Real GDP growth (in %) 9.1 - 10,3 12.7 8,9 7,7 6,5 4,7 6,0 GDP (at current prices, in millions of Leks) 315,835 333,071 425,356 488,611 551,282 590,237 658,062 744,974 GDP (at current prices in millions of USD) 322,3 2236,9 2824,4 3548,4 3336,3 4113,7 4695,4 6,027,3 GDP (in USD per capita) 920,6 672,9 842,1 1052,0 1128,0 1332,6 1521,0 1934,9 Unemployment rate 12,4 14,9 17,8 18,0 16,9 14,6 15,8 15,0 Inflation rate (y/y) 17,4 42,1 8,7 -1,0 4,2 3,5 2,1 3,3 Budget deficit (without grants, in % of GDP) 30,7 36,2 36,2 37,4 42,6 39,5 38,8 38,0 Current account (without official transfers, in % of GDP) -3,6 -12,2 -7,1 -7,9 -7,4 -6,2 -9,0 -6,7 Foreign debt (in % of GDP) 29,2 35,6 36,9 32,3 31,8 28,2 24,4 23,3 Average Lek/USD exchange rate 104,5 148,9 158,6 137,7 143,7 143,5 140,1 121,9 Performance of savings and investments 10.0 20.0 15.0 5.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1998 1999 2000 Kursime te brendshme 2001 2002 Investime Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 Kursimet e huaja (% e PBB-së) Kursim-Investime (% e PBB-së) 25.0 2003 Kursimet e huaja 7 Fiscal Sector Developments Fiscal indicators 1994 – 2003 (in billions of Leks) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 (20) (40) (60) 1994 1995 1996 1997 TOTALI TE ARDHURAVE 1998 1999 2000 2001 TOTALI I SHPENZIMEVE Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 2002 2003 DEFIÇITI 8 Budget Deficit Budget financing in 2003 (in millions of Leks) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Dhjetor Nëntor Tetor Shtator Gusht Korrik Qershor Maj Prill Mars Shkurt Janar Brendshem I Huaj Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 9 Annual inflation as of December 2003 resulted to 3.3 %, i.e within the Bank of Albania 2- 4 per cent targeted band. This inflation level has provided a positive contribution to Albanian economy development. Main impact was given by the group of “Foodstuff and non-alcoholic beverages”, energy (May) and telephony (December) Developments of monetary indicators (net international reserve, net domestic assets, net domestic credit to government) according to forecasts. Appreciating trend of Lek against Euro and dollar, particularly during Leksion thei Guvernatorit second half of the year. te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 10 Annual inflation (in %) 10% 8% Inflacio ni vjeto r Kufiri i po shtëm 2% Kufiri i sipërm 4% M esatarja rrëshqitëse (vjeto re) 6% 4% 2% 0% 12-1999 -2% 06-2000 12-2000 06-2001 12-2001 06-2002 12-2002 06-2003 12-2003 -4% Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 11 Factors having impacted on inflation performance Budget expenditure and budget deficit Monetary policy and developments in monetary indicators Exchange rate performance War in Iraq Agriculture sector Raw material cost rise Imported inflation - effective campaign on preventing and smoothing the speculative price rise. Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 12 Exchange rate performance Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 13 Balance of payments Deficiti korent PPB Deficiti korent ndaj PBB (%) 2003 2002 2001 4,575 1999 3,575 2,575 10.0 2000 1996 8.0 1998 6.0 1997 1,575 4.0 575 2.0 -425 0.0 Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 14 ne përqindje në milionë dollarë 12.0 5,575 Monetary Developments and Markets Performance of new credit in years, in billions of Leks 2001 2002 2003 Short-term loans 27,6 44,7 63,1 Mid-term loans 10,4 13,0 22,2 Long-term loans 2,6 4,8 7,4 Public sector 0,5 0,06 0,04 Private sector 40,1 62,5 92,6 Lek 10,0 20,8 30,8 Foreign currency 30,6 41,8 61,8 New credit (in billions of Leks) 40,6 62,6 92,6 Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 15 Banking system developments Banking system enumerates 15 banks at year - end 2003. Following February 2004, there are 16 banks. Banking system profit is Lek 4.5 billion. Depositing activity is increased by Lek 42.5 billion or 14.7 %. Public confidence in banks is increased. Lending activity – credit was increased by Lek 12 billion. The new credit was Lek 92.6 billion (about USD 900 million, or 48 % more than in 2002) Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 16 Real and nominal 12-month Lek time deposit interests Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 17 Interest rates on credit extended in foreign currency Interest rate weighted aver. int. of USD credit 12/2/04 11/2/04 10/2/04 9/2/04 8/2/04 7/2/04 6/2/04 5/2/04 4/2/04 3/2/04 2/2/04 1/2/04 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% weighted aver. int. of Euro credit Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 18 Banking Supervision Licensing and regulatory framework - Credins Bank is granted the definitive license - Popular Bank is granted the preliminary license - American Bank of Albania (permit to establish a branch in Greece) - Increasing the number of non-bank entities with two other entities. - The number of Savings and Credit Associations was increased by 20 new associations. - Establishment of a Representation Office of Pugliese Bank in Tirana Savings Bank’s privatization by the well-known Raiffeisen Bank is expected to raise banking competition, provide new services to customers, restart lending activity and increase Banking system efficiency. Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 19 Banking system performance Banks No. of branches 1. Italian Albanian Bankl 2. Savings Bank 3. United Bank of Albania 14 No of agencies Paid in capital/ total balance (%) Total deposits / Total balance (%) Total loans / Total balance (%) Treasury bills in % to banking system 3 10.0 84.6 37.7 1.6 83 0.0 94.9 0.3 76.1 50.0 51.8 15.5 0.0 91.6 17.9 0.0 0.0 2 4. Dardania Bank 5. National Commercial Bank 15 1 5.6 91.8 8.5 10.4 6. Tirana Bank 12 2 5.9 86.3 27.1 4.7 7. International Commercial Bank 1 40.0 63.0 44.7 0.2 8. American Bank of Albania 4 6.3 87.3 22.3 2.8 Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 20 Banking system performance Paid in capital/ total balance (%) Total deposits / Total balance (%) Total loans / Total balance (%) Treasury bills in % to banking system 5.0 86.8 44.9 1.6 38.6 56.6 57.4 0.3 15.5 86.6 22.6 0.8 5.2 54.7 47.2 1.6 13. First Investmetn Bank –Tirana Branch 36.8 16.1 1.2 0.0 14. Credit Bank of Albania 81.1 37.9 0.0 0.0 19.5 77.3 31.3 0.0 Banks 9.Procredit Bank No. of branches No. of agencies 12 10. Commercial Bank of Greece (Albania) 11. Branch of National Bank of Greece in Tirana 12. Branch of Alpha Bank in Tirana 15. Credins Bank 4 7 1 Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 21 Developments in Payment System During 2003 the system of the new accounting project, ATM for upgrading the Bank of Albania operations was implemented. Albanian Interbank Payment System. Transactions in real time, 2 seconds at maximum. 94 payments effected during the first day, at the value of 48 million dollars. 12 banks in the system. The entry of two new banks is expected. Benefiting businessmen and public as well. Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 22 Other Bank of Albania activities Strategy of the Bank of Albania’s integration to the system of European Central Banks. Cooperation with other institutions to reduce cash in economy Campaign against speculative price rise at the threshold of end-year celebrations. Fourth international conference of the Bank of Albania. Campaign to increase public confidence on the advantages of Savings Bank’s privatization. Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 23 The End Thank you for your attention! You are invited to make questions! Leksion i Guvernatorit te Bankes se Shqiperise z.Shkelqim Cani, Prill 2004 24