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Macroeconomic Performance of the Republic of Turkey Prepared by: Blagoy Kitanov Venera Nikolaeva Background information • Upper middle-income country and a dynamic emerging-market economy • Member of the OECD • Founding member of the G-20 • Joined the World Bank in 1947 • The World Bank’s largest borrower in the Europe and Central Asia Region • Three severe financial crises: in 1994, 1999 and 2001 • Reasons for the macroeconomic volatility in the period 1994 – 2001 lack of fiscal reforms large and growing public sector deficits widespread corruption high inflation weak banking sector • IMF-backed reforms and assistance from the World Bank since the 2001 financial crisis have reduced macroeconomic instability • After the 2001 crisis, Turkey entered a period of high growth and structural transformation due to a strong reform program which included: financial-sector reform privatization revenue-administration strengthening investment climate improvements energy sector reforms social security reform • From agriculture and heavy industry to diversification and an increasingly large and globalized services sector • Since December 31, 1995, the country is part of the EU customs union • EU accession negotiations were opened in October 2005, but have made slow progress Goods Market • Exports: $155.12 billion (2008 est.) Commodities: apparel, foodstuffs, textiles, metal manufactures, transport equipment Exporting partners: Germany 11.2%, UK 8.1%, Italy 7%, France 5.6%, Russia 4.4%, Spain 4.3% (2007) • Imports: $204.8 billion (2008 est.) Commodities: machinery, chemicals, semi-finished goods, fuels, transport equipment Import partners: Russia 13.8%, Germany 10.3%, China 7.8%, Italy 5.9%, US 4.8%, France 4.6% (2007) • Current account balance: -$51.68 billion (2008 est.) Labor Market • Labor force: 23.21 million (about 1.2 million Turks work abroad) 2008 est. • By occupation: agriculture: 29.5% industry: 24.7% services: 45.8% • Unemployment rate: 7.9% (2008 est.) Key economic indicators - Forecast Key indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP growth (%) 2.3 0.4 1.9 4.9 4.7 4.8 Consumer price inflation (%) 10.5 8.6 8.6 6.8 5.3 4.3 Budget balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5 Current-account balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -3.5 -3.5 -4.2 -4.7 -4.9 3-month interbank money market interest rate (av; %) 15.9 13.8 13.5 13.5 13.0 12.5 Exchange rate YTL:US$ (av) 1.30 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.53 Exchange rate US$:€ (av) 1.46 1.29 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.37 Bibliography: • CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/tu.html#Econ • World Bank http://www.worldbank.org.tr/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECA EXT/TURKEYEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20630704~menuPK:361720~pa gePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:361712,00.html http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/tur_aag.pdf http://www.washjeff.edu/uploadedImages/Academic_Affairs/Study_A broad/Approved_Programs/turkey-flag_000.gif • Economist Intelligence Unit Country Briefings/Turkey http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?folder=Profil e-Forecast http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?folder=Profil e-FactSheet http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?f older=Profile%2DEconomic%20Data Thank You for Your Attention