Download Macroeconomic Performance of the Republic of Turkey

Macroeconomic Performance
of the Republic of Turkey
Prepared by:
Blagoy Kitanov
Venera Nikolaeva
Background information
• Upper middle-income country and a dynamic
emerging-market economy
• Member of the OECD
• Founding member of the G-20
• Joined the World Bank in 1947
• The World Bank’s largest borrower in the Europe
and Central Asia Region
• Three severe financial crises: in 1994, 1999 and
2001
• Reasons for the macroeconomic volatility in the
period 1994 – 2001
lack of fiscal reforms
large and growing public sector deficits
widespread corruption
high inflation
weak banking sector
• IMF-backed reforms and assistance from
the World Bank since the 2001 financial
crisis have reduced macroeconomic
instability
• After the 2001 crisis, Turkey entered a period of
high growth and structural transformation due to
a strong reform program which included:
financial-sector reform
privatization
revenue-administration strengthening
investment climate improvements
energy sector reforms
social security reform
• From agriculture and heavy industry to
diversification and an increasingly large
and globalized services sector
• Since December 31, 1995, the country is
part of the EU customs union
• EU accession negotiations were opened in
October 2005, but have made slow
progress
Goods Market
• Exports:
 $155.12 billion (2008 est.)
 Commodities: apparel, foodstuffs, textiles, metal
manufactures, transport equipment
 Exporting partners: Germany 11.2%, UK 8.1%, Italy 7%,
France 5.6%, Russia 4.4%, Spain 4.3% (2007)
• Imports:
 $204.8 billion (2008 est.)
 Commodities: machinery, chemicals, semi-finished goods,
fuels, transport equipment
 Import partners: Russia 13.8%, Germany 10.3%, China
7.8%, Italy 5.9%, US 4.8%, France 4.6% (2007)
• Current account balance: -$51.68 billion (2008 est.)
Labor Market
• Labor force: 23.21 million (about 1.2 million
Turks work abroad) 2008 est.
• By occupation:
agriculture: 29.5%
industry: 24.7%
services: 45.8%
• Unemployment rate: 7.9% (2008 est.)
Key economic indicators - Forecast
Key indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real GDP growth (%)
2.3
0.4
1.9
4.9
4.7
4.8
Consumer price inflation (%)
10.5
8.6
8.6
6.8
5.3
4.3
Budget balance (% of GDP)
-1.5
-2.5
-2.2
-1.8
-1.8
-1.5
Current-account balance (% of GDP)
-6.0
-3.5
-3.5
-4.2
-4.7
-4.9
3-month interbank money market interest
rate (av; %)
15.9
13.8
13.5
13.5
13.0
12.5
Exchange rate YTL:US$ (av)
1.30
1.60
1.55
1.54
1.53
1.53
Exchange rate US$:€ (av)
1.46
1.29
1.30
1.33
1.35
1.37
Bibliography:
• CIA World Factbook
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/tu.html#Econ
• World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org.tr/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECA
EXT/TURKEYEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20630704~menuPK:361720~pa
gePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:361712,00.html
http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/tur_aag.pdf
http://www.washjeff.edu/uploadedImages/Academic_Affairs/Study_A
broad/Approved_Programs/turkey-flag_000.gif
• Economist Intelligence Unit Country Briefings/Turkey
http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?folder=Profil
e-Forecast
http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?folder=Profil
e-FactSheet
http://www.economist.com/countries/Turkey/profile.cfm?f
older=Profile%2DEconomic%20Data
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