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9 THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN Chapter 25 Production and Growth 25.1 Production and Growth • A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. 25.1 Production and Growth • Within a country there are large changes in the standard of living over time. • In the United States over the past century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year. 25.1 Production and Growth • Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services produced for each hour of a worker’s time. • A nation’s standard of living is determined by the productivity of its workers. Figure 1. A Look At Short-Run Economic Fluctuations Figure.1952-2005 real GDP in China 3E+12 3E+12 2E+12 2E+12 1E+12 5E+11 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 1970 1967 1964 1961 1958 1955 1952 0 图1. 中国国内生产总值及增长率 GDP(亿元) 200000 150000 8.3 109655 10 9.1 10.1 159878 120333 10.4 183868 10.7 12 10 209407 8 135823 6 100000 4 50000 2 0 0 2001 2002 2003 GDP 2004 2005 growth-rate % 2006 GDP年增长率(%) 250000 U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES Average Annual Increase (Percent) U.S. Economic Growth, Annual Averages for Five Decades 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 Real GDP Real GDP Per Capita TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the President 2007) (percent change) Area and country 1988–97 annual average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 1 2005 World 3.4 2.8 3.7 4.9 2.6 3.1 4.1 5.3 4.9 5.1 Advanced economies 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 3.2 2.6 3.1 United States 3.0 4.2 4.5 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.4 Japan 2.9 -1.8 -0.2 2.9 0.4 0.1 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.7 United Kingdom 2.2 3.3 3.0 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 2.7 Canada 2.2 4.1 5.5 5.2 1.8 2.9 1.8 3.3 2.9 3.1 Euro area ...... 2.8 3.0 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.8 2.1 1.3 2.4 Germany 2.7 2.0 1.9 3.1 1.2 * -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.0 France 1.9 3.3 3.0 4.0 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.2 2.4 Italy 1.9 1.4 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.3 * 1.1 * 1.5 Spain 2.9 4.5 4.7 5.0 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 Netherlands 2.9 4.3 4.0 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.5 2.9 Belgium 2.6 1.9 3.1 3.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.7 Austria 2.5 3.6 3.3 3.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.4 2.0 2.8 Finland 1.6 5.2 3.9 5.0 2.6 1.6 1.8 3.5 2.9 3.5 Greece 2.0 3.4 3.4 4.5 5.1 3.8 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.7 Portugal 3.7 4.8 3.9 3.9 2.0 0.8 -1.1 1.2 0.4 1.2 Ireland 5.9 8.5 10.7 9.2 5.7 6.0 4.3 4.3 5.5 5.8 Luxembourg 5.1 6.5 8.4 8.4 2.5 3.6 2.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 Of which: TABLE B–112.—Grow th rates in real gross dom estic product, 1988–2006 (Source: Econom ic Report of the President 2007) (percent change) 1988–97 Area and country annual 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 average World 3.4 2.8 3.7 4.9 2.6 3.1 4.1 5.3 4.9 5.1 Advanced economies 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.4 2.9 7.3 -2.4 7.4 7.9 1.1 5.3 3.2 5.9 4.5 4.9 2.3 2.8 2.7 3.1 4.2 3.6 4.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 0.9 2.9 0.7 5.1 0.3 4.5 4.7 6.5 5.4 5.3 ...... -3.4 5.2 9.0 6.3 5.3 7.9 8.4 6.5 6.8 ...... -5.3 6.4 10.0 5.1 4.7 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.5 Developing Asia 7.9 4.2 6.2 7.0 6.1 7.0 8.4 8.8 9.0 8.7 China 9.9 7.8 7.1 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.0 India 6.0 5.9 6.9 5.3 4.1 4.3 7.2 8.0 8.5 8.3 Middle East Western Hemisphere Brazil 4.0 3.7 1.8 5.3 3.0 4.1 6.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 2.9 2.3 0.5 3.9 0.5 0.1 2.2 5.7 4.3 4.8 2.0 0.1 0.8 4.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 4.9 2.3 3.6 Mexico 3.0 5.0 3.8 6.6 * 0.8 1.4 4.2 3.0 4.0 Memorandum: Major advanced economies 2 New ly industrialized Asian economies 3 Regional groups: Africa Central and eastern Europe Commonw ealth of Independent States 4 Russia Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences Copyright©2004 South-Western 表 A1 资 本 主 义 时 代 三 个 最 成 功 时 期 的 人 均 GDP增 长 表 现 西欧 1973-1998 1870-1913 1950-1973黄 新自由秩序 自由秩序时 金时期 时期 期 人均GDP年均复合增长率 A组 4.08 1.78 1.32 1998世界 GDP 1998世界人 口 占世界比重 20.6 6.6 西方衍生国 2.44 1.94 1.81 25.1 5.5 日本 8.05 2.34 1.48 7.7 2.1 发达国家合计 3.72 1.98 1.56 53.4 14.2 复兴的亚洲 发达国家和复 兴的亚洲(49 个) 2.61 4.18 0.38 25.2 50.9 2.93 1.91 1.36 78.6 65.1 B组 40个其他亚洲 国家 44个拉丁美洲 国家 27个东欧和前 苏联 57个非洲国家 徘徊的经济实 体(168个) 世界 4.09 0.59 0.48 4.3 6.5 2.52 0.99 1.79 8.7 8.6 3.49 -1.1 1.15 5.4 6.9 2.07 0.01 0.64 3.1 12.9 2.94 -0.21 1.16 21.4 34.9 2.93 1.33 1.3 100 100 资料来源:(英)麦迪森著,《世界经济千年史》(北京大学出版社, 2003) , 表 3- 5, p120。 25.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • Living standards, as measured by real GDP per person, vary significantly among nations. 25.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • The poorest countries have average levels of income that have not been seen in the United States for many decades. 25.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD • Annual growth rates that seem small become large when compounded for many years. • Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time. 25.2 PRODUCTIVITY: ITS ROLE AND DETERMINANTS • Productivity plays a key role in determining living standards for all nations in the world. 25.2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important • Productivity refers to the amount of goods and services that a worker can produce from each hour of work. • To understand the large differences in living standards across countries, we must focus on the production of goods and services. 25.2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important • Let’s begin our study of productivity and economic growth by developing a simple model based loosely on Daniel DeFoe’s famous novel Robinson Crusoe. Robinson Crusoe, is a sailor stranded on a desert island. Because Crusoe lives alone, he catches his own fish, grows his own vegetables, and makes his own clothes. We can think of Crusoe’s activities – his production and consumption of fish, vegetables and clothing – as being a simple economy. By examining Crusoe’s economy, we can learn some lessons that also apply to more complex and realistic economies. 25.2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important • What determines Crusoe’s standard of living? The answer is obvious. If Crusoe is good at catching fish, growing vegetables, and making clothes, he lives well. If it is bad at doing these things, he lives poorly. Because Crusoe gets to consume only what he produces, his living standard is tied to his productive ability. 25.2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important • The term productivity refers to the quantity of goods and services that a worker can produce for each hour of work. In the case of Crusoe’s economy, it is easy to see that productivity is the key determinant of living standards and that growth in productivity is the key determinant of growth in living standards.The more fish Crusoe can catch per hour, the more he eats at dinner. If Crusoe finds a better place to catch fish, his productivity rises. This increase in productivity makes Crusoe better off : He could eat the extra fish, or he could spend less time fishing and devote more time to making other goods he enjoys. 25.2.1 Why Productivity Is So Important • The key role of productivity in determining living standards is as true for nations as it is for stranded sailors. ……Put simply, an economy’s income is the economy’s output. • A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. • Hence, to understand the large differences in living standards we observe across countries or over time, we must focus on the production of goods and services. But seeing the link between living standards and productivity is only the first step. It leads naturally to the next question: why are some economies so much better at producing goods and services than others? (Mankiw, Principles of Economics(third edition), chapter25, pp540-541.) Table3. Economic activity 美国 农业生产率 人均 每个农业劳动 增加值占GDP的 GDP 者创造的农业 年增 百分比 附加值(1995 长率 美元) 1990 服务 1988- 2000- 农业 工业 业 2003 1990 2002 2003 2003 2003 27975 53907 2 23 75 3.2 日本 25293 33077 1 31 68 1.3 印度 342 401 23 26 52 5.8 德国 16783 33686 1 30 69 1.5 印尼 674 748 17 44 40 3.5 法国 30635 59243 3 25 72 1.9 泰国 768 863 9 41 50 3.7 英国 29138 32918 1 26 73 2.6 马来西亚 5,678 6,912 9 49 42 5.9 意大利 13990 27064 3 29 69 1.6 阿根廷 7,282 10,317 11 35 54 2.3 葡萄牙 5391 7567 4 30 66 2.6 巴西 2,982 4,899 6 21 73 2.6 西班牙 12860 22412 3 30 66 2.8 智利 4,854 6,226 9 34 57 5.6 希腊 10578 13860 7 22 70 2.7 墨西哥 1,579 1,913 4 26 70 3 新加坡 27156 42920 0 35 65 6.3 澳大利亚 24,500 36,327 4 26 71 3.8 韩国 .. 13747 3 35 62 5.5 33 22 45 6.8 .. .. 0 12 88 3.7 博茨瓦纳 777 575 2 香港 Source: World development report 2005, Table 3 Economic activity, pp258-259. 48 50 4.7 国别 国别 中国 乌干达 农业生产率 人均 每个农业劳动 增加值占GDP的 GDP 者创造的农业 年增 百分比 附加值(1995 长率 美元) 1990 服务 1988- 2000- 农业 工业 业 2003 1990 2002 2003 2003 2003 227 338 15 53 32 9.5 285 346 世 界 主 要 国 家 和 地 区 国 际 竞 争 力 统 计 数 据 一 览 表 ( 2002年 ) 综合生产 率(2001 年,每个 就业者人 均GDP, 美元) 劳动生产 率(2001 年,每个 雇员每小 时创造的 GDP,美 元) 农业生产 率(2001 年,每个 农业劳动 力创造的 GDP,美 元) 工业生产 率(2001 年,每个 工业雇员 创造的 GDP,美 元) 服务业生 产率 (2001年 每个服务 业雇员创 造的 GDP, 美 元) 美国 75386 39.3 55802 89711 71722 日本 64625 34.67 17799 64081 68122 德国 50433 29.88 18854 42723 55714 加拿大 46478 24.58 35697 60170 42706 法国 54885 34.58 42115 51497 56743 英国 50968 27.81 48480 50954 47175 意大利 50603 29.22 22817 47726 54353 新加坡 41846 21.05 14767 53787 37631 香港 49780 22.82 14722 44152 51006 台湾 30080 13.88 7624 25814 35795 韩国 19763 9.53 8436 29775 17318 巴西 6508 3.37 2156 12084 6475 中国大陆 1587 0.8 489 3693 2014 印度 1095 0.52 403 2465 2570 俄罗斯 4769 2.61 2466 5958 6173 《中国区域竞争力发展报告2 0 0 3 --区域竞争力发展主题研究 》,中国人民大学竞争力与评价研究中心研究组,中国人民大学 出版社,2 0 0 3 年9 月第1 版,表1 6 -1 ,第4 2 4 ~4 4 5 页。 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • The inputs used to produce goods and services are called the factors of production. • The factors of production directly determine productivity. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • The Factors of Production – Physical capital – Human capital – Natural resources – Technological knowledge 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • Physical Capital – is a produced factor of production. • It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process. – is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. • Tools used to build or repair automobiles. • Tools used to build furniture. • Office buildings, schools, etc. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • • • Physical Capital Accumulating capital requires a sacrifice of current consumption over many years. Social overhead capital, which consist of the large-scale projects that precede trade and commerce. Roads, irrigation and water projects, and public-health measures are important examples. All these involve large investments that tend to be “indivisible”, or lumpy, and sometimes have increasing returns to scale. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • • • Physical Capital These projects generally involve external economies, or spillovers that private firms cannot capture, so the government must step in to ensure that these social overhead or infrastructure investments are effectively undertaken. Some investments, such as transportation and communication systems, involve “network” externalities in which productivity depends upon the density of the using population. (Samuelson, Economics, 17th edition, P570-571.) 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • Human Capital – the economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience. – Human capital includes the skills accumulated in early childhood programs, grades school, high school, college, and on-the-job training for adults in the labor force. – Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • Human Capital 1) Although education, training, and experience are less tangible than lathes, bulldozers, and buildings, human capital is like physical capital in many ways. Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services. 2) Human capital is produced factor of production. 3) Producing human capital requires inputs in the form of teachers, libraries, and student time. Indeed, students can be viewed as “workers” who have the important job of producing the human capital that will be used in future production. (Mankiw, Principles of Economics(third edition), chapter25, P542.) 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • Natural Resources – inputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. • Renewable resources include trees and forests. When one tree is cut down, a seedling can be planted in its place to be harvested in the future. • Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal. Because oil is produced by nature over many thousands of years, there is only a limited supply. Once the supply of oil is depleted, it is impossible to create more. – can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • • • • Technological Knowledge society’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force. To use a relevant metaphor, knowledge is the quality of society’s textbooks, whereas human capital is the amount of time that the population has devoted to reading them. Worker’s productivity depends on both the quality of textbooks they have available and the amount of time they have spent studying them. 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined • • Technological Change and Innovation Technological Change denotes changes in the processes of production or introduction of new products or services. Process inventions流程方面的发 明 that have greatly increased productivity were the steam engine, the generation of electricity, antibiotics, the internal-combustion engine, the wide-body jet, the microprocessor and the fax machine. Fundamental product inventions基础性产 品发明 include the telephone, the radio, the airplane, the photograph, the television, the computer and the VCR. (Samuelson, Economics, 18th edition, P559-560.) The Importance of Technological Change (Samuelson, Economics, 18th edition, P566.) Q/L Output per worker As a result of improvements in technology, the aggregate production function shifts upward over time. Hence improvements in technology combine with capital deepening to raise output per worker and real wages. APF2007 (Q/L)2007 E2007 APF1950 (Q/L)1950 E1950 (K/L)1950 (K/L)2007 K/L Capital per worker Fig27-6. Technological Advance shift up the Production Function 25.2.2 How Productivity Is Determined To Summarize: Technological change----which increases output produced for a given bundle of inputs----is a crucial ingredient in the growth of nations. The new growth theory seeks to uncover the processes which generate technological change. This approach emphasizes that technological change is an output that is subject to severe market failures because technology is a public good that is expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce. Governments increasingly seek to provide strong intellectual property rights for those who develop new technologies. (Samuelson, Economics, 18th edition, P567.) FYI: The Production Function • Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in production and the quantity of output from production. FYI: The Production Function • Y = A F(L, K, H, N) – Y = quantity of output – A = available production technology – L = quantity of labor – K = quantity of physical capital – H = quantity of human capital – N = quantity of natural resources – F( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined. FYI: The Production Function • A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN) • That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. FYI: The Production Function • Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication. – Setting x = 1/L, – Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Where: Y/L = output per worker K/L = physical capital per worker H/L = human capital per worker N/L = natural resources per worker FYI: The Production Function • The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A). 表27-3:知识进步超过了资本对经济增长的贡献 不同要素对实际GDP增长的贡献,美国,1948- 1997 占总值的 年百分比 百分比 实际GDP增长 3.52 100 (私人企业部门) 投入贡献 2.22 63 资本 0.66 19 劳动力 1.56 44 全要素生产率增长(研究和 发展、教育、创新、规模经 1.3 37 济、知识进步和其它资源) 资料来源:Samuelson, Economics, 17th edition, P584. 表27-4 实际工资反映生产率增长 长期中,实际工资随着劳动生产率的变动而变动。自从 1973年生产率减速以后实际工资就停滞不动了(Samuelson, Economics, 17th, P585.) * 时期 1959~1973年 1973~1999年 * 生产率和实际工资 年均增长(%) 劳动生产率 实际工资 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.9 生产率是指美国的工商业部门;名义上的补偿是用个人消费支出的缩减指数压缩的。 Samuelson, Econmics, 17th, p585. 25.3 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY • Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards. 25.3 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC POLICY • Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living Standards – Encourage saving and investment. – Encourage investment from abroad – Encourage education and training. – Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability. – Promote free trade. – Promote research and development. 25.3.1 The Importance of Saving and Investment • One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital. Figure 1 Growth and Investment (b) Investment 1960–1991 (a) Growth Rate 1960–1991 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda 0 South Korea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil West Germany Mexico United Kingdom Nigeria United States India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Growth Rate (percent) 0 10 20 30 40 Investment (percent of GDP) Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 25.3.2 Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect • As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns. • Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while. 25.3.2 Diminishing Returns and the CatchUp Effect • In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas. 25.3.2 Diminishing Returns and the CatchUp Effect • The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich. 25.3.3 Investment from Abroad • Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources. 25.3.3 Investment from Abroad • Investment from abroad takes several forms: – Foreign Direct Investment • Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. – Foreign Portfolio Investment • Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents. 25.3.4 Education • For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. – In the United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage, on average, by about 10 percent. – Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them. 25.3.4 Education • An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others. 25.3.4 Education • One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drain—the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries. 25.3.5 Property Rights and Political Stability • Property rights refer to the ability of people to exercise authority over the resources they own. – An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work. – It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure. 25.3.6 Free Trade • Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology. • A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance. 25.3.6 Free Trade • Some countries engage in . . . – . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. – . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries. 25.3.7 Research and Development • The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living. – Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors. – Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system. CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup • From 1959 to 1973 productivity grew at a rate of 3.2 percent per year. • From 1973 to 1995 productivity grew by only 1.5 percent per year. • Productivity accelerated again in 1995, growing by 2.6 percent per year on average during the next six years. CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup • The causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive. • The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of production that are most easily measured. • Many economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new ideas. Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Per Person Growth Rate (percent per year) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 1870– 1890– 1910– 1930– 1950– 1970– 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 1990– 2000 Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning 25.3.8 Population Growth • Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth affects a society 25.3.8 Population Growth • Population growth interacts with other factors of production: – Stretching natural resources – Diluting the capital stock – Promoting technological progress Summary • Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantially around the world. • The average income of the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest countries. • The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services. Summary • Productivity depends on the amounts of physical capital, human capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge available to workers. • Government policies can influence the economy’s growth rate in many different ways. Summary • The accumulation of capital is subject to diminishing returns. • Because of diminishing returns, higher saving leads to a higher growth for a period of time, but growth will eventually slow down. • Also because of diminishing returns, the return to capital is especially high in poor countries. Questions for Reviews Mankiw, chapter 25 1. 一国的GDP水平衡量什么?GDP的增长率衡量 什么?你愿意生活在一个高GDP水平而低增长 率的国家,还是生活在一个低水平而高增长率 的国家? 2. 什么是生产率?叙述决定生产率的四个因素? 答: (1)physical capital; (2) human capital; (3) natural resources; (4) technological knowledge. 3. 大学学位是哪一种形式的资本?解释高储蓄如 何带来高生活水平。什么因素会阻碍决策者努 力提高储蓄率? 5.高储蓄率引起了暂时的高增长还是永远的高增长? 6.为什么取消关税这类贸易限制会引起更快的经济 增长? 7. 人口增长率如何影响人均GDP的水平? 答:1) stretching natural resources; (2) diluting the capital stock; (3)promoting technological progress. 8. 说明一个政府努力鼓励技术知识进步的两种方 法。 9.Describe three ways in which a government policymaker can try to raise the growth in living standards in a society? 答 : 1 ) promoting saving and investment;2) encourage investment from abroad; 3)education; 4)property rights and political stability; 5)free trade; 6)research and development; 7)population growth (the advanced economies encourage population growth; less developed countries discourage population growth). (Mankiw,ch.25,p559, problem 5.) 5.Suppose that society decided to reduce consumption and increase investment. a) How would this change affect economic growth? b) What groups in society would benefit from this change? What groups might be hurt? 5.Suppose that society decided to reduce consumption and increase investment. a) How would this change affect economic growth? b) What groups in society would benefit from this change? What groups might be hurt? a).答: 当社会决定减少消费并增加投资时,更多 的资源用于生产资本品,结果,资本存量增加, 劳动者人均资本量增加促进劳动生产率和 GDP 更快增长。 b).答: 拥有资本品的人会从这种变化中获益,如 拥有较多的物质资本和人力资本的人。而那些 依靠政府援助的人将从这种变化中受损,因为 社会减少了现期物品与劳务的消费。 (Mankiw,ch.25,p559, problem 5.) (Mankiw-Chapter25, p559,problem 7.) What is the opportunity cost of investing in capital? Do you think a country can “over-invest” in capital? What in the opportunity cost of investing in human capital? Do you think a country can “over-invest” in human capital? Explain. What is the opportunity cost of investing in capital? Do you think a country can “overinvest” in capital? What in the opportunity cost of investing in human capital? Do you think a country can “over-invest” in human capital? Explain. (Mankiw-Chapter25, p559,problem 7.) 答 : 投资于资本的机会成本是牺牲现期的物品和劳务 的消费。一国有可能对资本 “ 过度投资 ” 。 人力资本投资也有机会成本。当学生上学时,他们放 弃了本可以赚到的收入。即使在人力资本特别稀缺的 发展中国家,一国也不会对人力资本 “ 过度投 资 ”, 因为一国政府进行人力资本投资的方式是提 供更多更好的学校,并鼓励人们利用这些学校。尽管 受过良好教育的工人与未受过良好教育的工人之间的 工资差距很大,但是很多儿童在小小年纪就退学了, 因为他们需要用劳动来养家糊口。 (Mankiw-Chapter25, p559,problem 8.) Suppose that an auto company owned entirely by German citizens opens a new factory in South Carolina. a. What sort of foreign investment would this represent? b. What would be the effect of this investment on US.GDP? Would the effect on US.GNP be larger or smaller? (Mankiw-Chapter25, p559,problem 8.) 8.假设一家完全由德国公民拥有的汽车公司在美 国南卡罗来纳开办了一个新工厂。 A. 这代表了哪一种外国投资 ? 答 : 这代表了外国直接投资。 B. 这种技资对美国的GDP有什么影响?对美国GNP 的影响大还是小? 答 : 这种投资赚到的收入属于并不生活在美国 的德国公民,因此,这种投资增加了美国的 GDP。这种投资对美国GNP的影响小。