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th 19 Lecture 20: Century Redux May 12, 2010 THE CHINESE 21st CENTURY? AN EVENING WITH MARTIN JACQUES: "When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World" Thursday, May 13 7:00 - 9:00pm Walker-Ames Room, Kane Hall University of Washington, Seattle Free and open to the public Peace Dividends from End of Cold War US defense cuts Proliferation of democracies End of (some) 3rd world civil wars: Mozambique, Angola, El Salvador, Nicaragua End of apartheid in South Africa (1994) Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process (1993-?) The 1990s in Retrospect A taste of what might have been without Cold War Unprecedented growth (US grew 27% 1990-98) Focus on economics, unfocused foreign policy Dark clouds on the horizon (“rogue states”, civil wars, AIDS in Africa) Democrats: peace, prosperity, US soft power Republicans: 1992-2000= “holiday from history” Future historians: The limbo period sandwiched between the Cold War and Terror War Globalization “Movement of goods, people, and capital across national boundaries” End of Communism, rise of free markets Cheaper communication and transportation Good Comparative advantage “Rising tide lifts all boats.” Bad Erodes power of governments Bad for labor, environment (“race to the bottom”) Distributional consequences Globalization of crisis Globalization Backlash Return to 19th Century but with New Players? European Union Coal and Steel Community European Community EU Why? Prevent war Economic efficiency Balance against US 1992 Maastricht Treaty Euro Common market, common currency, visa-free travel, harmonized laws, common norms/human rights Expanded 5 times; largest in 2004 European Union Coal and Steel Community European Community EU Why? Prevent war Economic growth Balance US Common Market, Visa-free travel, harmonized laws, common norms/human rights, social protections, Euro Expanded 5 times; largest in 2004 Problems Backlash against enlargement…what about Turkey? National interests first Punches below its weight internationally Solution? Lisbon Treaty (EU “president”, “foreign minister”) “BRIC” Countries “BRIC” Secrets of the BRIC Countries Liberalization of economy Lower trade barriers Investment in human capital (Relatively) effective government China Enters the World Economy Mao’s disastrous policies Deng Xiaoping’s gradual reforms GDP increase 1976-2006: $150 billion $2.2 trillion Consumes one-third of world’s iron, steel, coal Foreign exchange reserves: $2.5 trillion