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STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Agenda Item 3 b Enlargement and Enhanced Engagement: the impact on OECDs trade statistics Andreas Lindner Head, Trade and Globalisation Statistics …, STD/SES/TAGS; 1st WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Introduction • Heiligendamm Process (G8 2007 mandate) for OECD to act as hub for globalization analysis and advise G8 • Horizontal activity at OECD with central guidance from the Cabinet of the SG • The 5 enlargement countries will allow more global coverage of OECD per se • Increasing inclusion of the additional 5 Enhanced Engagement countries are prerequisite for global analysis carried out by OECD 2 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Enlargement • Structured approach with coordination for statistics to ensure synergies and avoid overlap • STD has a statistical coordination group, headed by Tim Davis • Each OECD activity manager will contact accession countries and also tie closer relations with enhanced engagement countries 3 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Statistical Mandate • The Chief Statisticians of the candidate countries have asked that the OECD organise its reviews in a coordinated way within the OECD and within the countries themselves. • All candidate countries have named a central contact person to deal with the OECD on statistical reviews and these individuals will also help to coordinate communications with relevant officials outside the NSOs. • The Committee on Statistics has been assigned an overall coordination role and the Statistics Directorate has put a coordination team in place to assist the process. 4 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Statistical requirements • One of the tools that will be used to facilitate coordination is the Statistical Requirements Paper which includes. – Topics to be covered in the OECD statistical assessments; – Detailed statistical items on which countries are required to report; – Method of collection used by the OECD (i.e. questionnaire or other vehicle); – Relevant concepts and standards or other metadata; – The specific experts or reviewers involved within the OECD; – The names and details about any outside consultants or peer reviewers involved; – The schedule and process to be followed for each subject area; and, – Plans for missions, meetings and other logistical arrangements 5 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics List of STD statistics covered: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • STD Activities and Topics 1. Coordination, Accession Country Statistics (CACS) 2. Review of Legal and Institutional Framework for Statistics 3. Classifications 4. National Accounts, including: (i) Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) (ii) Productivity 5. Financial Statistics 6. Business Statistics 7. International Trade in Goods and Services 8. Annual Labour Force Survey (ALFS) 9. Main Economic Indicators (MEI) 9.1. MEI-Production & Demand 9.2. MEI-Business Tendency Surveys & Composite Leading Indicators 9.3. MEI-Employment 9.4. MEI-Labour compensation 9.5. Prices 9.6. MEI-Short-term financial statistics 9.7. Balance of payments 6 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Enhanced Engagement countries • While accession countries are considered near future OECD countries… • Enhanced Engagement countries are hoped to become future members • The mechanisms in place are different for these two groups, • But OECD is putting in place closer ties in many areas ( of which statistics is one) with Enhanced Engagement countries 7 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics So we have a 30 + 5 = 5 country constellation. What does this mean for GDP coverage? GDP 2006 vs. 2000, share of total world GD 100 91 90 90 80 80 76 70 60 2000 50 2006 40 30 20 11 9 10 3 2 0 OECD AC EEP OECD+AC+EEP Source: UNSD National Accounts Database Measurement: at current prices, US$ 8 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics …Dynamic, growing economies -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Slovakia Hungary Spain Luxembourg Turkey Poland Iceland Netherlands Portugal GDP growth rate Finland France 2006 vs. 2000, % Austria Sweden Germany United States Russian Federation Slovenia Israel China + Hong Kong SAR South Africa Source: UNSD National Accounts Database Measurement: at current prices, US$ 9 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics And for trade? OECD lost by -7%, while AC’s increased their share by+1%, and EEC’s by +4% World Export Market Shares, trade of goods and services, 2006 vs. 2000, % of total world exports of goods and service 90 83 81 80 71 70 64 60 50 2000 40 2006 30 20 13 9 10 2 3 0 OECD Accession Countries Enhanced Engagement Program OECD+AC+EEP Source: UNSD National Accounts database Note: current prices, US$ 10 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics AC’s and EEC’s are more dynamic trading countries than the 30 OECD countries Export growth G+S 2000-2006 180 Import growth G+S 2000-2006 160 167 141 151 160 140 140 120 120 100 82 100 80 148 82 80 72 69 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 OECD Accession Countries Enhanced Engagement Program Source: UNSD National Accounts database Note: current prices, US$ OECD+AC+EEP OECD Accession Countries Enhanced Engagement Program OECD+AC+EEP 11 STD/PASS/TAGS STD/SES/TAGS – –Trade Tradeand andGlobalisation GlobalisationStatistics Statistics Thank you! 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