Download The CARSEA assessment and its scenario exercise

CARIBBEAN SEA ECOSYSTEM
ASSESSMENT
CARSEA
Project Summary
Angela Cropper
The Cropper Foundation
CARIBBEAN SEA STATES AND THEIR CLAIMED EEZ’s
• many actors with overlapping interests in and outside the region
impact on this LME
• Intended audience of CARSEA: Inter-governmental bodies and
regional decision makers
Time information
1. Condition and Trend Assessment
1. Fish production
2. Amenity (Tourism)
3. Biodiversity (Coral Reefs)
4. Desalinated water
5. Climate regulation (Cyclones)
1950-2000
1990-2003
1977-2002
1992-2000
1900-2000
2. Scenarios
2004-2050
Provisioning Services:
350000
CARIBBEAN SEA FISH CATCHES
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
19
98
19
95
19
92
19
89
19
86
19
83
19
80
19
77
19
74
19
71
19
68
19
65
19
62
19
59
19
56
19
53
0
19
50
METRIC TONS
300000
YEAR
Anchovies
Tuna & Billfishes
Flatfishes
Crustaceans
Herring- likes
Cod- likes
Scorpion- fishes
Molluscs
Perch- like
Salmon smelts, etc
Sharks & Rays
Other fishes and inverts
600
400
200
0
1990
1995
1985
Mean Trophic Level
Catch (tonnes)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
0.0
1995
1990
1995
2.5
1985
Catch (tonnes)
Ye ar
1995
1995
2000
1995
2000
1995
2000
1995
2000
1995
2000
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
2000
1980
1985
1990
Ye ar
0.5
FIB Index
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
0.3
0.1
-0.1
1980
Mean Trophic Level
1990
1990
1990
0.6
0.4
0.2
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
Ye ar
600
400
200
0
1985
1985
3.6
2000
1200
1000
800
1980
1980
Ye ar
3.0
Ye ar
(e)
2000
0.2
2000
3.5
1980
Mean Trophic Level
1985
1995
FIB Index
Catch (tonnes)
Catch (tonnes)
600
400
200
0
1995
1.0
Ye ar
1200
1000
800
1980
1990
4.0
2000
1990
-0.6
1985
Ye ar
(d)
1985
Ye ar
St Lucia
1.0
1980
Mean Trophic Level
1990
1980
Ye ar
600
400
200
0
1985
2000
1.8
2.0
2000
1200
1000
800
1980
1995
3.0
Ye ar
(c)
1990
Ye ar
Ye ar
(b)
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
1980
2000
FIB Index
1985
0.2
-0.4
Barbados
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
1980
1985
1990
Ye ar
1990
Ye ar
FIB Index
1980
0.4
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
FIB Index
1200
1000
800
Mean Trophic Level
Catch (tonnes)
(a)
1995
2000
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1980
1985
1990
Ye ar
Figure 3. Trends in annual catches and associated mean trophic level and mean FIB index for islands of the southeastern
Caribbean: (a) Grenada; (b) St Lucia; (c) St Vincent; (d) The Grenada and St Vincent Grenadines combined and (e) Barbados.
Fisheries jobs, income and fish
protein
• 504,913 jobs
• US$1.6 billion in exports
• 7% of total protein consumption in
Caribbean
Will Caribbean fisheries collapse?
If they do what are the likely effects on human wellbeing?
Desalinated Water
• 667,053 m3/d from 15 Caribbean countries
• 3% of world total desalinated water
• US$ 317 million in sales revenue generated
• What is the cost-benefit of investment in
desalination technology compared with
investment in watershed management?
Amenity value service:
Tourism jobs and income
•
•
•
•
•
•
Direct impact:
567,870 jobs
US$ 6.5 contribution to GDP
Indirect impact:
1,857,000 jobs (12% of total employment)
US 23.1 billion contribution to GDP (13%
of total GDP (#1 in the world relative to
size)
• How can the Caribbean capture more of the
resource rents locally without the negative
effects of mass tourism?
Biodiversity service:
Long-term region-wide declines in Caribbean coral cover
What are the consequences of the decline in Caribbean
coral cover for human wellbeing?
Caribbean Scuba Dive Tourism
• Caribbean attracts 57% of world scuba dive
tours
• Most Scuba Dive tours in the Caribbean
have shifted to the Netherland Antilles due
to better coral reef health as a consequence
of the establishment of MPA’s
Selected Trends:
Tropical Cyclone activity in the Caribbean 1901-2000
10-Year Distribution of Tropical Cyclones
30
Frequency
25
27
20
15
10
5
19
17
15
15
12
15
13
10
9
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10-Years Ending
Trans-Atlantic Sahara dust clouds May 11th 2003 as recorded
by the TOM’s satellite
Population living within 100 km of coast (1995)
Insular Caribbean
99.9%
Central America
41.5%
South America
48.7%
After CIESIN, Columbia University
CARSEA SCENARIOS
• Approach used to develop story-lines for the Caribbean Sea (CARSEA)
• Part I: Stakeholder involvement (conducted separately in small breakout
groups)
• Assess the current knowledge and current state of the system
List key historical eras, key actors, external forces affecting the region, and
ecosystem services.
• Identify a focal issue or issues
List hopes and fears for the future to determine focal questions that might drive
scenario development
• Identify alternative trajectories and branch points
Identify key sources and threats to the resilience of the region (ability to adapt to
coming surprises). We developed focal questions for Caribbean marine
ecosystems based on: What is the biggest concern for the region in the future?
What are the factors that do or can make this region more able to cope with
whatever the future brings?
• Build scenarios
Ask breakout groups to come up with a set of storylines, based on the focal
questions and considering the major eras and vulnerabilities of the region. They
were asked to do this in 1 hour to create a sense of urgency. Each group was then
asked to present their set of scenarios to the entire group in a Plenary.
• Part II: Refine and test the scenarios (conducted by a single small
focus group)
• 5. Assess the scenarios:
Are there certain themes emerging? Can we come up with a set of 4 or
so that seem to make sense together? What are the critical contrasts
among the scenarios? What are the recurring themes? Are the
trends/events plausible? What trends/events are useful for illustrating
key themes or concepts? Does the set address the focal question.
• 6. Shocks and surprises: Come up with a list of shocks and surprises
that might happen and ask how the world would respond under each
of the scenarios.
• 7. Use this analysis to refine a final set of scenarios.
We discussed the major drivers in the region and constructed the
stories around them packaged as clusters of issues. In the final
analysis we choose from the large set of possible scenarios, those that
addressed the focal questions whether they fell neatly into the
quadrants or not. We also discussed the key tipping points that might
change the direction of any storyline. These tipping points included a
regional governance framework, fisheries collapse etc.
Four Scenarios for Caribbean Sea
• Neo-Plantation economy
– Exploitation, short-term gain vs long-term costs
• Quality over Quantity
– ‘know your own limits’, Niche tourism
• Diversify Together
– Regional Cooperation and diversification
• Growing Asymmetries
– Selective permeability, FTAA
Exploring uncertainty
-Focal questions
• What governance mechanisms for the Caribbean Sea
can be used to reduce economic, social and
environmental vulnerability of the region
• How can economic activity be organized and
managed so that natural resource benefits are
distributed equitably relative to the costs?
• Will current trends in the decline of Caribbean Sea
coastal and marine ecosystems exceed ecological
thresholds that may result in significant
consequences for human well-being?
CARSEA
Scenario Storylines
Globally
connected
Regionally
focused
Neo-Plantation
Economy
Quality Over
Quantity
Focus: Mass
Tourism
Focus: Niche
Marketing
Growing
Asymmetries
Diversify
Together
Focus: Free
: Area
Trade
Focus: Regional
Cooperation
Short Term
Exploitation
Carrying Capacity
Sensitive
Approach to ecosystem services
Tourism in the Neo-Plantation Economy
- an investment led boom 2007-2017
- sow the seeds of a subsequent bust in 2040
Growing Asymmetries
• Major Findings:
Only the Quality over Quantity Scenario benefits
ecosystems through its explicit policies and
institutions to address the environment, otherwise
there will be high negative impacts on
ecosystems.
Relationship between MA Global Scenarios and
CARSEA Regional Scenarios
Global Scenarios
CARSEA (Regional)
Global Orchestration
Neo-Plantation Economy
Techno Garden
Quality over Quantity
Adapting Mosaic
Diversify Together
Order from strength
Growing Asymmetries