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Sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution Assistant, PhD, BURZ Răzvan-Dorin West University of Timisoara, Romania Lecturer, PhD, BOLDEA Bogdan Ion West University of Timisoara, Romania This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/89/1.5/S/59184 „Performance and Excellence in Postdoctoral Research in Romanian Economics Science Domain”. Research hypothesis There is a positive relationship between uncertainty about economic environment and the inequality in income distribution. Inequality – approach Inequality – researches Inequality – researches Inequality – researches Inequality – researches Inequality – researches Motivation As background research we did not find any studies which are investigating the possible relation between inequality of incomes distribution and the uncertainty which affects the economic processes and the quality of economic subjects’ decisions. The relationship between sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution – data Output volatility Variation in GDP (World Bank – “World Development Indicators”) Sample 27 developing countries Observation time Inequality Gini coefficient (United Nations – “World Income Inequality Database”) 1995 – 2006 The relationship between sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution – methodology A formal description of our research hypothesis can be synthesized as: GINIi,t 0 i X i,t t i i,t Where: — the dependent Gini Index variable is linked to a set X of the considered explanatory variables; — ηi is the unobserved time-invariant specific effects; — δt captures a common deterministic trend; — εit is a random disturbance assumed to be normal, and identical distributed (IID) with E (εit)=0; Var (εit) =σ2 >0 . The relationship between sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution – methodology Steps in testing our research hypothesis: • First we are involving a static panel data model with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) estimators. The F statistics tests the null hypothesis of same specific effects for all countries. If we accept the null hypothesis, we could use the OLS estimator. The Hausman test can decide which model is better: random effects (RE) versus fixed effects (FE). The FE model was selected because it avoids the inconsistency due to correlation between the explanatory variables and the country-specific effects. • For a robustness assessment, we also apply the so-called GMMSystem estimation (Arellano and Bover, 1995; Blundell and Bond, 1998, 2000; and Windmeijer, 2005). The GMM-System tries to simultaneous estimate the previous Equation together with a respecification designed to eliminate the country-specific effects by using first differences of the involved variables as: GINIi,t i X i,t t i Zi,t i,t Where Z is a set of instruments for the dependent and explanatory variables. The relationship between sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution – empirical results Inequality in incomes distribution and economic output volatility: a static panel data model The relationship between sustainability of economic growth and inequality in incomes distribution – empirical results Output volatility and incomes inequality: a GMM-System and dynamic GMM estimation Conclusion • • Acording to our results, social output volatility has a positive impact on inequality of incomes’ distribution. The results clearly indicate that an increase in the volatility of the social output (a decrease in the sustainability of the growth processes) leads to a greater inequality in incomes’ distribution. The most important result is that the output volatility variable remains positive and statistically significant, displaying some robustness to the changes in methodology. However, the estimation of relative importance of output volatility to be sensitive to such changes and the statistical significance decline in the GMM-System framework. Amplitude of relation Stability of relation (statistically significant) Static Dynamic GMM-system 0.26 0.18 0.21 5% 1% 10% Conclusion • For a developing country to have a sustainable development it must make efforts not only to increase its GDP but also to maintain a continuous trend of its increase. It matters not only the level achieved but also how it is achieved. Although in a given period of time the economy shows permanent positive results in GDP terms, if it has variations, although it remains positive, the country development is not a sustainable one from the point of view of inequality evolution. Thank you!