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China Threat Theory GISA 104: International Security and Peace Professor: Kim, Jae Chun Week 15: Contemporary Security Issue 3 / Sino-US Relations and its Impact on World Security Zhang Piaopiao (I36048) Date: 12/08/2014 Essay Question: What kinds of security threats does China’s rise pose to the world in general and to Asia in particular? China Threat Theory "Yellow Peril" - the excuse of the Eight-Power Allied Forces ↓ New era of "China Threat Theory" growth of China's economy military capability “peaceful rise” (和平崛起) “powerful nation strategy”(强国战略) invade China in 1900 Possible threats to the world Economic threat: second largest economy entity accumulate global capital and compete with the West in international fund manipulation of exchange rates and cheap labor ↓ trade imbalance / unemployment / monopoly / dumping (anti-Chinese movements) Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - cautious attempt IMF announced RMB as its SDR basket of elite currencies - getting invloved in making economic rules - rewarding China's strong pursuit of the global status Possible threats to the world Military security: large-scale capability of military power military expansion for hegemony long-term military ambitions increasing military spending nuclear weapons and missiles - long range attack send troops to resourceful places and built potential military bases Possible threats to the world Resources and environment security: large population - consume lots of resources Chinese consumption boom all over the world imbalance in supply and demand regional conflict - seize limited resources long-term and widespread pollution Possible threats to the world Political hegemony: offensive realism - hegemony construct a totally different political system in the world(with communist system) feasibility of communism rise of socialism destruction of capitalism China is rising - unknown road and goal Civilization exports: Confucius College - political propaganda branch of Communist Party China is planning ideological and political penetration to the West under the cover of Confucius College Possible threats to the world Paris terrorist attacks - international political and economic space for China European debt crisis : China-European Economic Cooperation - get involved in European countries unimaginable investment mergers and acquisitions energy, infrastructure, banking, securities, insurance, airports, aviation, ports and other sensitive industries U.S can not maintain control in the South China Sea and the Middle East at the same time China's pressure will be much smaller. In Asia: regional hegemony is the best guarantor for survival maximize the power gap between itself and its neighbors try to push U.S military force out of Asia Possible threats to Asia Territorial crisis: China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and missiles South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The Philippines/Vietnam/Japan) Taiwan Island territory that ceded to other countries in colonial period(Russia/Mongolia) continuous border disputes(India) Possible threats to Asia Territorial crisis: China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and missiles South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The Philippines/Vietnam/Japan) Taiwan Island territory that ceded to other countries in colonial period(Russia/Mongolia) continuous border disputes(India) Possible threats to Asia Territorial crisis: China's military power - Navy, nuclear weapons and missiles South China Sea issue(Malaysia/The Philippines/Vietnam/Japan) Taiwan Island territory that ceded to other countries in colonial period(Russia/Mongolia) continuous border disputes(India) Possible threats to the world North Korea nuclear weapon crisis: • China did not follow the comprehensive containment strategy proposed by the U.S, and China also did not fully cooperate with U.S and South Korea. • nuclear research in North Korea could lead to nuclear weapon arms race in Asia → North Korea is always a threat • if another Kim Jong-un appeared in China whip up stultifying fanatical nationalism/outward expansion/regional war/population decline/ refugees/foreign property losses/global economy confusion/nuclear pollution → destruction of the earth for other democratic countries, maybe they are able to win the war, but they still have too much to lose Conclusion “China Threat Theory” is not completely the problem of China, what is really important is the other countries’ perceptions and suspicions of China, and a dangerous China is largely depends on how do you think about China. China is hiding its capacities and biding its time, and claiming a peaceful rise, but it is hard to say what will happen in the future. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION Questions & Comments?