Download Progress Towards MDGs

Joint Staff Assessment Report (JSAR)
Assessment of Progress on JAM Implementation
PREPARED BY THE STAFF OF THE IMF, WORLD BANK AND UN
Third Sudan Consortium
Oslo, May 5-7, 2008
Outline of the Presentation
Economic and Social Progress since the signing of CPA
 Progress Toward MDGs
 Macroeconomic Situation
Resource Mobilization, Public Expenditure and Public
Financial Management
Adherence to Financial Obligations for the JAM
Projects:
 GONU and GOSS
 Donors
Looking Forward (2008-11)
 Systemic Constraints / Challenges
 Financing Development
Progress Towards MDGs
Sudan faced a set of complex and deep-seated developmental challenges
at the time of signing of the CPA
MDG Indicators: Sudan (2006) vs. Average of the Low Income Countries (2005)
M aternal mo rtality ratio , per 100,000 live births
120%
B irths attended by qualified health perso nnel (%)
100%
Net attendance rate (%)
80%
60%
40%
M easles immunisatio n co verage (%)
20%
Use o f impro ved so urces o f drinking water (%)
0%
A nti-malarial treatment (under-fives) (%)
Use o f impro ved sanitatio n facilities (%)
Lo w Inco me Co untries (average)- Indexed at 100%
Underweight prevalence (%)
Under five mo rtality rate, per 1000 live births
Sudan (2006)
Progress Towards MDGs
Selected Key Achievements (2005-2007) : Northern Sudan
Education: The gross enrolment rate in four states reached over 80%;
Survival rate to grade 5 reached 94.2% in 2006; 540 classrooms
constructed.
Health: DPT3 coverage reached 84%; more than 90% of children under five
received one dose of measles; 782 new health facilities (42 hospitals, 352
primary health centres and 388 health units) constructed; 712,000 long
lasting ITNs distributed free.
HIV/AIDS Prevention/Control: Voluntary Counseling and Testing centres has
increased from one in 2001 to more than 45 in 2006 and the number of
treatment centres increased from just one in 2001 to 14 in 2006. Prevention
of mother to child transmission services has been initiated in three priority
states.
Water and Sanitation: Safe drinking water sources provided for an additional
2.07 million rural population; non-functioning water sources re-established to
serve 2.1 million people.
Progress Towards MDGs
Increased spending in health and education + ongoing decentralization
initiatives  Improved utilization of public services
100
100
measles vaccination (North Sudan)
90
90
2007
80
70
% under-5 children
% children 12-23 months
80
2000
60
50
40
30
60
50
40
2000
30
20
10
10
0
0
2
3
quintile
4
highest
2007
70
20
lowest
ARI brought to qualified health provider
(North Sudan)
lowest
2
3
quintile
4
highest
Progress Towards MDGs
Selected Key Achievements (2005-2007) : Southern Sudan
Education: Enrolment in primary schools increased from around 300,000 in 2005
to over a million in 2007; Over 14,000 primary and secondary teachers had been
recruited, and now over 25,000 teachers are estimated to be working in
Southern Sudan.
Health: Distribution of bed nets increased from 253,000 in 2005 to an estimated
one million in 2007; The number of people treated with Artemisinin Combination
Therapy in 2006 reached around 500,000; The Mass Measles Campaign,
launched in 2005, had by 2007 reached some 3.2 million people—75% of all
children under 15.
HIV/AIDS: Voluntary Counseling and Testing services have expanded from
around nine centers in 2005 to more than 40 in 2007 covering some 20 towns;
Anti-Retroviral drugs are now available in four hospitals.
Water and Sanitation :1,400 new water points constructed and 2000 boreholes
rehabilitated; A $80m rural water supply project is under implementation; 25,000
latrines for households and schools constructed; and Over a million people
oriented to hygienic practices.
Progress Towards MDGs:
…Yet what has been achieved, pales in significance to what remains to be done
Disparity in MDG Indicators Across States in 2006
Use o f impro ved sanitatio n facilities (%)
300%
Underweight prevalence (%)
Net attendance rate (%)
250%
200%
Use o f impro ved so urces o f drinking water (%)
150%
B irths attended by qualified health perso nnel (%)
100%
50%
Under five mo rtality rate, per 1000 live births
0%
A nti-malarial treatment (under-fives) (%)
Survival rate to grade 5 (%)
Under-fives sleeping under ITNs (%)
M aternal mo rtality ratio , per 100,000 live births
M easles immunisatio n co verage (%)
Gender parity index (basic educatio n)
B est perfo rming relative to natio nal average
Wo rst perfo rming relative to natio nal average
Macroeconomic Situation
Sudan has been a top growth performer in the region, with oil sector playing a pivotal role
A verage real GDP gro wth rate (2003-2006)
14
Co ntributio n to Real GDP Gro wth
14.8
Chad
12
Sudan*
9.3
Ethio pia
Uganda
2.8
10
7.5
4.2
5.5
Oil
8
Kenya
5.0
1.2
Egypt
4.8
Rwanda
1.0
4.0
Libya
8.7
4
No n-o il
6.7
6.4
6.0
3.5
4.2
2
Eritrea
0.0
6
2.0
0
*2005 - 2007.
5
10
15
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Economic growth has been strong by regional standards
Benefits of increased oil production and higher international prices
Positive spill-over from oil sector—particularly in construction and services sectors
Recent increase in food prices a potential risk to macroeconomic stability
Macroeconomic Policies
Sudan’s Fiscal Position
Revenue, Expenditure and Fiscal Deficit (% o f GDP )
24.3%
25%
23.4%
23.0%
Expenditure
Fiscal Deficit
21.7%
20%
19.7%
20.0%
19.9% Revenue
Fiscal position has deteriorated
during 2005–07 and there has been a
significant build-up of domestic
arrears
Monetary and exchange rate
policies remained prudent, but private
sector credit growth has fallen
Financial sector indicators have
deteriorated in recent years
18.2%
16.0%
15%
15.3%
12.8%
After a sharp increase in 2005–06,
the external current account has
improved slightly in 2007
11.6%
11.9%
10%
10.7%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The external debt arrears constrain
access to concessional finance
Resource Mobilization, Public Expenditure
and Financial Management: GONU
Trend and composition of revenue and expenditure for GONU – 2005 to 2007
Expenditure ( in m illions of $)
Revenue ( in m illions of $)
14000
10,000
9,123
8,970
Total
9,000
11,759
12000
7,877
10,456
8,000
7,002
Tax
Revenue
7,000
6,000
5,225
Total
9,606
10000
8,403
Transfer
to States
8000
4,994
Non-Tax
Revenue
5,000
5,950
5,877
Capital
6000
4,000
4000
3,000
Operating
Oil
Revenue
2,000
2000
Salaries
1,000
0
-
B udget
A ctual
B udget
A ctual
B udget
A ctual
Budget Actual Budget Actual Budget Actual
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
Revenue: Managing the volatility of oil revenue flow remains critical; Raising the level of non-oil
revenue to GDP ratio is important for long-term fiscal sustainability.
Expenditure: Surge in CPA related spending (including transfer to states) has led to sharp increase in
expenditure; Execution rate was 88% in 2006 and 89% in 2007; and Poverty-reducing spending
increased significantly from 3.4% of GDP in 2004 to 6% in 2007; Considerable scope to improve budget
execution and the quality of spending.
Resource Mobilization, Public Expenditure
and Financial Management: GOSS
Trend and composition of revenue and expenditure for GOSS – 2005 to 2007
R e v e nue ( in m illio ns o f US $ )
1,800
1,800
1,534
1,600
1,408
1,400
1,304
To tal
No n-o il
Revenue
1,223
1,200
1,000
1,600
E xpe ndit ure ( in m illio ns o f US $ )
1652
1574
1531
1503
1,400
To tal
Develo pment
1,200
1,000
822
Oil
Revenue
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
-
A ctual
2005
B udget
A ctual
2006
B udget
A ctual
2007
Operating
295
A ctual
2005
Salaries
B udget
A ctual
2006
B udget
A ctual
2007
Revenue. Diversification of revenue base is essential to fiscal sustainability; Non-oil revenue
collection has been minuscule, especially relative to potential.
Expenditure. Wage bill growth and increase in operating expenses have adversely affected
development spending; Improving budget execution and strengthening the financial management
practices are critical to raise the effectiveness of public expenditure.
Adherence to Financial Obligations for the
JAM Projects: GONU
Expenditure: Planned vs. Actual (in m illions of US$)
1,140
Basic social services
703
735
Three Areas
39
386
390
Productive sectors
318
Infrastructure
960
285
Livelihood/social protect
65
128
Economic policy
Aggregate JAM Estimate = US$3.2 billion
80
Aggregate Actual Spending = US$2.8 bln
96
Governance/ rule of law
11
56
39
Capacity building/ inst dev
Actual
JAM Estimate
49
Information/stats
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GONU obligations in the JAM across the eight clusters were estimated at $3.2 billion
Execution rate has been impressive (88%), but under-spending in 6 of the 8 JAM
sectors (exceptions are infrastructure and productive sectors)
Spending on ‘Three Areas’ has been significantly low
Adherence to Financial Obligations for the
JAM Projects: GOSS
JA M Expenditure: P lanned vs. A ctual (in millio ns o f US$ )
1,600
1437
1,400
1,200
JA M Estimate
A ctual
1,000
800
644
600
551
530
400
294
263
257
200
2005
2006
2007
To tal 2005-2007
Against a commitment of US$ 1.4 billion, GOSS contribution to JAM projects was
US$ 551 million
This was largely due to revenue under-runs, greater salary and operating
expenses than assumed in the JAM report and shortfalls in donor funds
Relatively higher execution rate for infrastructure sector (79%), relative to basic social
services (35%)
Adherence to Financial Obligations for the
JAM Projects: Donors
Actual Donor Contribution in Phase -1: 2005-07 (in US$ m illion)
6,000
5,000
165
170
Recovery and Development (Others)
Recovery and Development (MDTF)
4,000
1016
Humanitarian (Others)
133
Humanitarian (UN)
3,000
537
349
1,699
555
1161
237
397
1,912
5,342
1145
2,000
148
1,000
239
3089
416
1,731
929
2005
2006
2007
2005-07 (Cumulative)
While donors contribution has been lower than the JAM estimates, it has been
significantly higher than the pledges made at Oslo in 2005.
The ability of the donors to allocate significant funds for recovery and development
activities has been constrained by large and expanding humanitarian aid.
Systemic Constraints / Challenges
Sudan’s development has been (continues to be) affected
by: domestic conflicts, resource curse, geography (large parts
of the country are far from the coast), and poverty traps.
The development needs are huge and the potential is
considerable. It calls for:
 More effective decentralization
 Reduced disparity in resource allocation
 Improved policy and quality of institutions
 Enabling environment for rapid and shared growth
 Greater involvement of private sector and CSOs
 Continued support of international development partners
Need for a broad-based, inclusive development framework
that is supported by good policies and adequate funding.