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WHERE TO AFTER TRANSITION? - TO EU! Are there any alternatives? CHRONOLOGY OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION July 1952 – European comunity for coal and steel (Belgium, Germany, France,Italy, Luxemburg, Netherland (6) January 1958 - Treaty of Rome: EEC and Euratom January 1973 – accession of Danemark, Ireland, Great Britain (9) January 1981 – accession of Greece (10) January 1986 – accession of Spain and Portugal (12) November 1993 - EU Maastricht treaty January 1995 – accession of Austria, Finland, and Sweden (15) May 1999 – Amsterdam Treaty 1997 February 2003 – Treaty of Nice 2003 – Convention for European Constitution May 2004 – accession of Czech R., Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia (25) June 2004 – Constitution Treaty, Rome 2005 – refusal of constitution in France and Netherland 2005 - financial perspective for 2007-2013 period EU ENLAREGEMENTS 400 area porast povrsin 300 population povecanje prebivalstva 200 production povecanje produkcije production per capita 100 povecanje produkta na prebivalca 0 1952 (6) 1973 (9) 1986 (12) 1995 (15) 2004 (25) EU INSTITUTIONS - - - European Council – council of ministries, presidency, looking for consensus in key matters, COREPER, meetings of country leaders, EU commisioner and president of the EU parliament; European Commission - government – 20 (president, 2 vice presednts and 17 commissioners, directorates (DG); European Parliament – legislation (directives), 732 members, EU budget, election and control of commissioners, direct elections of MPs; European Court – judges nominated by the countries, control of the actual use of the rules, influence on creation of national laws; European central bank – European monetary institute before 1998, monetary policy in the euro area; Other institutions – Economic and social council, European investment bank, etc. BASIC DATA ON EU ECONOMY Popolation2010 Employment GDP GDP/cap. Value added - Agriculture - Industry - Services milions % act. pop. bill. € 000 € EMU 330 64.7 8963 27.3 EU27 501 64.6 11790 23.6 ZDA 307 67.6 10122 32.9 Japonska 127 70.0 3539 252007 %GDP %GDP %GDP 1.6 20.7 77.7 1.7 20.6 77.4 1.2 21.9 76.9 1.6 21.9 76.5 - Exports %GDP 19.6 13.4 11.22008 14.82008 - Imports %GDP 18.9 17.9 15.42008 14.52008 DISPERSION OF THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN EU27 35 IR 30 GDP/capita 000 € SW FI FR GE IT ESP 25 20 SI CZ 15 EST PL LAT 10 5 BG RO 0 2007 LIT PT MT 2004 HU CY GR A UK DK BE NL CONVERGENCE TO EU AVERAGE (based on convergence 1997-2007) 110 EU27 100 90 Slovenia 80 Czech R. Estonia 70 60 Hungary Poland 50 Slovakia Lithuania 40 Latvia 30 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 CONVERGENCE OF “NEW” MEMBER STATES 100 90 80 70 KV(GDP /cap) 60 50 40 30 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CONVERGENCE ? 110 EU27=100 100 90 Slovenia 80 70 NMS (2004 enlargement) 60 Latvia 50 40 30 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 ALTERED “GENEROSITY” OF EU 4 3 "assist anc e " % of G D P Lit huania Lat via Por tugal Slovakia G reece 2 Poland Ir e land Spain 1 Hungar y C ze c h R . Slove nia development level EU- 25=100 0 40 60 80 100 120 140 IS A MEMBER COUNTRY A COUNTRY (ECONOMIC ENTITY)? A country as economic entity should be able: • 1. to print money; • 2. to collect taxes; • 3. to control the flows of goods, labor, and capital over its borders; • 4. to create rules of the game – economic system. Indeed, 1. monetary policy is shifted to ECB; 2. fiscal policy is restricted by Stability Pact; 3. countries cannot control flows of goods and capital; 4. “acquis” form economic system. IS EU A COUNTRY? Questions ? - EU is association of the countries rather than association of citizens? Who identifies himself as a European? What will increased diversity in the level of development bring? Is there a danger of Yugoslav syndrom? Who is exploiting whom? The pillars of EU stability? - Inertia (CAP, Stability Pact) Democratic deficit (refusal of EU constitution) Constant creation of new rules and new institutions (vested interests) Empty talks (Lisbon Strategy, neoliberalism and supply side economics) Ability to adapt its own rules (Stability Pact) WHAT CAN EU DO? Is EU a country? Questions ? - EU is association of the countries rather than association of citizens? Who identifies himself as a European? What will increased diversity in the level of development bring? Is there a danger of Yugoslav syndrom? Who is exploiting whom? The pillars of EU stability? - Inertia (CAP, Stability Pact) Ability to disregard or adapt its own rules (Stability Pact, competition rules) Democratic deficit (refusal of EU constitution) Constant creation of new rules and new institutions (vested interests) Empty talks (Lisbon Strategy, neoliberalism and supply side economics) FOUR PILLARS OF EUROPEAN NEOLIBERALISM - The basic obstacle to economic growth are too high costs of labor Public expenditure is waste of money and obstacle to economic growth Reduction of subsidies to poor would ensure their success in life Market distributes according to what is just; the interference with the distribution are therefore immoral; they reduce economic efficiency which is the basic value EMPTY TALKS OF LISBON STRATEGIES - The first Lisbon Strategy; 2000-2010, admitance of the failure, ”renovation” in 2005, Pact for Growth and Employment, responsibility? - Supply Side: production function Y = A * K a * L b total factor productivity, liberalization of labor market Do expenditures for R&R assure growth and employment? Does globalization help EU? - What about Aggregate Demand? causality in modern economies