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Timothy Frye [email protected] Classic Approaches: Caricatured Putinology Clan Politics History Types of Non-Democracies Military Chile under Pinochet Personalist Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela Single Party Taiwan, Malaysia, Mexico, China Party can check the leader Three questions How do Personalist Governments Work? public opinion How Do Personalist Regimes Evolve? What is likely to Come Next? Logic of Personalist Regimes Despite seeming chaos of day to day politics…. Higher Corruption Higher Cronyism Greater Reliance on Popularity of Leader Personal Power and Popularity Public opinion matters in Personalist regimes Popular leaders can deter challengers from within regime and from without Coercion is costly Sign of weakness or vulnerability Building a party takes time and it can turn on you Certainly the Case in Russia What Drives Popularity? Do you approve of the political activities of President Putin? Yes No Crude question – not election, etc. Economy Predicts Approval Figure 2. Presidential approval, actual and fitted values from regressions with just economic perceptions and months in office 8 Yeltsin actual approval Average rating on 10 point scale 7 Putin as prime minister 6 5 Putin actual approval 4 Fitted values for Yeltsin 3 2 Fitted values for Putin 1 0 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Source: Author's calculations using VCIOM and Levada Center poll data. Fitted values are predictions from models 7 in Tables 2 and 3. 2 Dember 2011 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Until 2012… Presidential Approval and Economic Growth 10 9 8 7 Approval 6 5 4 3 Growth 1 0 Rally around the flag… Will it last? Hard to say US comparisons Paradox of anti-Kiev/West peaking But little support for sending Russian troops to Ukraine Other measures of gov’t less supportive Long-term trend Lying to Pollsters? Very Preliminary results suggests it is limited Maybe 3-7 percent More Subtle Approach Randomly assign two versions of almost identical question Difference in average responses only due to small change in question wording Fall of 2014 Survey of 1600 firms in Russia Half receive Putin Prompt From 2012-14 at the initiative of President Putin many attempts have been made to improve the business climate. How would you rate the overall business climate in your region from 2012-14? 1 better 2 somewhat better 3 No change 4 Somewhat worse 5 Worse Other half receive no prompt From 2012-14 many attempts have been made to improve the business climate. How would you rate the overall business climate in your region from 2012-14? 1 better 2 somewhat better 3 No change 4 Somewhat worse 5 Worse Influence of Putin on perceptions of the business climate Change in Business Climate 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 With Putin Without Putin Putin’s popularity High Approval ratings But also limited power to persuade II. How Do Personalist Regimes Evolve? Striking Differences Among Different types of Regimes All non-democracies 1945-2006 Average Tenure in Office (Years) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Military Personalist Single Party Hybrid Single Party Average Growth Rate in Year Before Leaving Office 0 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 -0.25 -0.3 -0.35 -0.4 -0.45 Military Personalist Single Party How Rulers Lose Office 80 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 Regular Means Natural Death Irregular Means Post Tenure Fate of Rulers 80 70 60 50 Percent 40 OK Exile Jail Death 30 20 10 0 Military Personalist Single Party/Hybrid Single Party Implications Especially messy when personalist regimes fall Leaders anticipate punishment Personalist regimes more likely to be involved in conflict, especially if bordered by other personalist regimes III. What Comes Next? Previous Regime Type Bad News for Russia Other Structural Conditions Good News Transitions from Personalist Rule 60 49 50 43 40 PERCENT 35 35 To Democracy 30 To Hybrid Regime 22 20 Autocracy 16 10 0 Military Rule Personalist Rule Post Soviet Rulers Long-Lived Global average for Personalist Regimes Karimov, Nazarbaev, Lukashenko Aliev and Niyazov Akayev, Putin 15 years 24 and counting 21 and counting 20 and 16 15 15 and counting Post-Soviet Eurasia Underperforms in terms of Democracy given its wealth Income and Democracy Latin America and Eurasia Democracies in Red Non Democracies in Black Latin America Country Trinidad and Tobago Argentina Chile Uruguay Mexico Panama Venezuela Brazil Costa Rica Colombia Peru Cuba Suriname Dominican Republic Jamaica Ecuador El Salvador Guyana Paraguay Guatemala Bolivia Post-Soviet Eurasia GDP PPP Regime Type 20,301 FlaD 17,376 FlaD 16,171 FlaD 15,469 FulD 15,121 FlaD 13,595 FlaD 12,407 Hybr 11,845 11,562 10,155 10,000 9,900 9,492 9,289 9,003 8,335 7,595 7,541 5,548 5,033 4,843 FlaD FulD FlaD FlaD Auth FlaD FlaD FlaD Hybr FlaD FlaD FlaD Hybr Hybr Country Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Ukraine Georgia Armenia Mongolia Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan GDP PPP Regime Type 16,687 Auth 14,948 Auth 13,059 Auth 10,216 7,518 7,198 Auth Auth Hybr 5,430 5,395 4,509 3,293 2,380 2,039 Hybr Hybr FlaD Auth Hybr Auth Structural Conditions – Good News Russia far too rich, educated, and urban to be as corrupt and non-democratic as it is. Russia far richer than other countries that have become democracies, Spain in 1970s, Poland, Slovenia in 1990s, (I think) no authoritarian government has fallen in a country as rich as Russia and not liberalized its political system Economic Inequality in Russia High, but not a big obstacle in comparative terms Income Inequality (Gini Coefficient) World Bank 2012 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Natural Resource Curse Natural Resource is a Problem, but manageable Natural Resource Rents as Share of GDP World Bank 2012 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan Iran Bolivia Russia Chile Peru Mexico South Africa China Conclusions Personalist regimes Ironic importance of Public Opinion Personalist regimes more fragile and transitions more difficult Mixed prospects with political turnover Workplace Pressure to vote “How many of the following things will affect your job security, benefits, and income in 2012? Please do not tell me which of these factors will have an effect, just tell me how many.” 15% think voting will influence Table 2: pay List Experiment on Clientelistic Exchange in the Russian Workplace their income Control 1. Your job performance 2. Performance of the Russian economy 3. Change in trade with China 1.76 Mean Items # Treatment 1. Your job performance 2. Performance of the Russian economy 3. Change in trade with China 4. Your decision to vote in the 2011 State Duma elections 1.91 Personalist Regimes and Corruption Hard to Measure Corruption Incentives to lie on surveys Corrupt officials hide Lot of interesting research on this topic Most cutting edge approach to sensitive questions Why Are Governors Reappointed? Political Loyalty Vote Share of United Russia Economic Performance Growth Rates, or Unemployment Personalist Regimes and Promotion Russia: Reappointment of Governors post 2004 Political Indicators Matter, not Economics UR vote Share predicts reappointment Size of effect is large Economic performance plays little role China: Promotion of Regional Elites Economic Indicators dominate Growth rates in region good predictor of promotion List Experiment Randomly Assign questions Treatment/Control How many of these things have you experienced. Not which ones, but how many Control Tell us please which of the following items have you experienced at least one time in the last 12 months. Please do not tell us which items, just tell us how many. 1. Went to a police station to register documents 2. Ask a police officer for directions 3. Showed your documents to a police officer who stopped you on the street 4. Watched a film or television show about the police. Treatment Tell us please which of the following items have you experienced at least one time in the last 12 months. Please do not tell us which items, just tell us how many. 1. Went to a police station to register documents 2. Ask a police officer for directions 3. Showed your documents to a police officer who stopped you on the street 4. Watched a film or television show about the police. 5. Gave a bribe to a police officer (a beat cop, a traffic officer, etc.) in order to avoid an unpleasant situation. Of those with contact with police 20% said they paid bribes 2 1.8 1.6 Average Response 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Control Treatment Half respondents receive this Take a look at this list of politicians and tell me for how many you generally support their activities. Please do not tell us which ones you support. Just tell us how many. Vladimir Zhirinovsky Gennady Zyuganov Sergei Mironov Answer 0 1 2 3 Other half receive this Take a look at this list of politicians and tell me for how many you generally support their activities. Please do not tell us which ones you support. Just tell us how many. Vladimir Zhirinovsky Gennady Zyuganov Sergei Mironov Vladimir Putin Answer 0 1 2 3 4 Difference in mean response = true support for Putin More subtle measure Sample of 600 businesspeople in 2008 4 slightly different question about joining the WTO Randomly assign which respondent gets what question Simply change who recommends joining the WTO Only thing that can account for difference in the responses is the change in wording Two versions President Medvedev thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? Prime Minister Putin thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? The persuasive power of economists Most Russian economists thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? Most Western economists thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? Putin’s Persuasive Powers 2008 Similar Questions in December 2011 Prime Minister Putin thinks that Russian membership in the WTO will help develop the economy. To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? To what extent do you support Russian joining the WTO? Results December 2011