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Spending on
education and
training: an update
Gerald Burke
CEET
CEET 10th National Conference 3November 2006
www.education.monash.edu.au/centres/ceet
[email protected]
1
Expanding the training system
• The current cost of provision
• The size of the expansion required
• Where will the funds come from?
2
VET: hours of training and revenue
1999
2004
increase %
Total hours, million
299
342
15
'Private' revenue $m
698
1,038
49
Government revenue $m
3,375
3,939
17
TOTAL revenue $m
4,073
4,977
22
TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m
5,126
5,219
2
$ per hour in constant 2005 prices
17.1
15.2
-11
.79
.95
20
Composite price index (0.7 WPI Education,
0.3 non-farm GDP deflator) 2005=100
3
Schools: students and revenue
1999
Increase
2004 1999 to 2004
Government schools
Students EFT '000
%
2,244
2,263
1
TOTAL (government) revenue $m
15,464
20,354
32
TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m
19,465
21,344
10
8,676
9,434
9
990
1,090
10
Private income $m
2,853
4,496
58
State government grants $m
1,119
1,608
44
Commonwealth government grants $m
2,608
4,424
70
TOTAL revenue $m
6,579
10,526
60
TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m
8,281
11,038
33
$ per student in constant 2005 prices
8,365
10,128
21
$ per student in constant 2005 prices
Non-government schools
Students EFT '000
4
Publicly funded Australian university
students and revenue
1999*
Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000
Increase
2004 1999 to 04 %
434
414
-5
Australian Government $m
2,554
2,995
17
Student Contribution/HECS liabilities
$m
1,662
1,961
18
Total Base Operating Grant $m
4,216
4,956
18
Total in constant 2005 prices $m
5,307
5,197
-2
12,221
12,550
3
.79
.95
20
$ per student in 2005 prices
Composite price index (0.7 WPI
Education, 0.3 non-farm GDP deflator)
2005=100
* 1999 approximate estimate
5
Students hours and revenues:
summary
Increase
1999
2004
99 to 04
%
Students EFT '000
2,244
2,263
1
$ per student in constant 2005 prices
8,676
9,434
9
990
1,090
10
8,365
10,128
21
299
342
15
17
15
-11
Government schools
Non-government schools
Students EFT '000
$ per student in constant 2005 prices
Vocational Education and Training VET
Hours million
$ per hour in constant 2005 prices
Publicly funded Australian University Students
Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000
434
414
-5
$ per student in constant 2005 prices
12,221
12,550
3
6
Key findings on real revenues
1999 to 2004
• VET revenues hardly changed whereas hours of
training increased 15 per cent
• Government school funds increased 10 per cent and
student numbers scarcely at all
• Non-government schools funds increased (due mainly
to Australian government funding and fees) by over
30 per cent and students by 10 per cent
• Public funds for Australian students in universities
fell a little and the student numbers a little more
7
Australian government appropriations
for employer incentives for
apprentices/trainees, NACs etc
(There are also state incentives - not shown)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
$m
428
493
586
686
723
794
Index
100
115
137
160
169
185
8
Employer expenditure and private
training
• Employer training expenditure is hard to estimate –
last measured by ABS 2001-02
• Large numbers of enrolments in privately funded
VET but size of the effort and funding not known
9
Expansion required
to 2016 – student contact hours (million)
Delivery at
2005 rate
Expected
surplus (+) /
shortfall (-)
Annual %
increase to
meet
requirements
736
157
-580
27.2
1,068
483
-585
14.1
Certificate IV
462
514
51
-1.9
Certificate III
1,262
1107
-155
2.4
Certificate II
218
476
258
-14.9
Certificate I
118
198
80
-9.7
3,864
2,933
-931
5.0
Qualification
level
Requirements
to meet 2016
target
Adv Diploma
Diploma
All
10
Expanding VET revenues
at 5 per cent per annum from 2006
2006
2011
2016
5430
6930
8845
100
128
163
Increase over 2006 $m
1500
3415
Cumulative addition $m
4,354
17,412
Revenues (all sources) $m
Index (2006=100)
11
Issues and future
• The base funding is projected to grow at 5 per cent per annum
•
Eg the base will be $1500 million per year higher in 2011
• ‘Skills for the Future’ provides $837m over 5 years from 2006
• ‘Skills for the Future’ includes employer incentives
• State programs eg ‘Skilled Victorians’ extra $241m over 4 years
•
Migration
• Other funding: employers, fees, loans
• Reducing cost per hour, as in recent years
• Improving completion rates and shortening courses
12