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Spending on education and training: an update Gerald Burke CEET CEET 10th National Conference 3November 2006 www.education.monash.edu.au/centres/ceet [email protected] 1 Expanding the training system • The current cost of provision • The size of the expansion required • Where will the funds come from? 2 VET: hours of training and revenue 1999 2004 increase % Total hours, million 299 342 15 'Private' revenue $m 698 1,038 49 Government revenue $m 3,375 3,939 17 TOTAL revenue $m 4,073 4,977 22 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 5,126 5,219 2 $ per hour in constant 2005 prices 17.1 15.2 -11 .79 .95 20 Composite price index (0.7 WPI Education, 0.3 non-farm GDP deflator) 2005=100 3 Schools: students and revenue 1999 Increase 2004 1999 to 2004 Government schools Students EFT '000 % 2,244 2,263 1 TOTAL (government) revenue $m 15,464 20,354 32 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 19,465 21,344 10 8,676 9,434 9 990 1,090 10 Private income $m 2,853 4,496 58 State government grants $m 1,119 1,608 44 Commonwealth government grants $m 2,608 4,424 70 TOTAL revenue $m 6,579 10,526 60 TOTAL in constant 2005 prices $m 8,281 11,038 33 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,365 10,128 21 $ per student in constant 2005 prices Non-government schools Students EFT '000 4 Publicly funded Australian university students and revenue 1999* Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000 Increase 2004 1999 to 04 % 434 414 -5 Australian Government $m 2,554 2,995 17 Student Contribution/HECS liabilities $m 1,662 1,961 18 Total Base Operating Grant $m 4,216 4,956 18 Total in constant 2005 prices $m 5,307 5,197 -2 12,221 12,550 3 .79 .95 20 $ per student in 2005 prices Composite price index (0.7 WPI Education, 0.3 non-farm GDP deflator) 2005=100 * 1999 approximate estimate 5 Students hours and revenues: summary Increase 1999 2004 99 to 04 % Students EFT '000 2,244 2,263 1 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 8,676 9,434 9 990 1,090 10 8,365 10,128 21 299 342 15 17 15 -11 Government schools Non-government schools Students EFT '000 $ per student in constant 2005 prices Vocational Education and Training VET Hours million $ per hour in constant 2005 prices Publicly funded Australian University Students Actual places EFT (net of RTS) '000 434 414 -5 $ per student in constant 2005 prices 12,221 12,550 3 6 Key findings on real revenues 1999 to 2004 • VET revenues hardly changed whereas hours of training increased 15 per cent • Government school funds increased 10 per cent and student numbers scarcely at all • Non-government schools funds increased (due mainly to Australian government funding and fees) by over 30 per cent and students by 10 per cent • Public funds for Australian students in universities fell a little and the student numbers a little more 7 Australian government appropriations for employer incentives for apprentices/trainees, NACs etc (There are also state incentives - not shown) 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 $m 428 493 586 686 723 794 Index 100 115 137 160 169 185 8 Employer expenditure and private training • Employer training expenditure is hard to estimate – last measured by ABS 2001-02 • Large numbers of enrolments in privately funded VET but size of the effort and funding not known 9 Expansion required to 2016 – student contact hours (million) Delivery at 2005 rate Expected surplus (+) / shortfall (-) Annual % increase to meet requirements 736 157 -580 27.2 1,068 483 -585 14.1 Certificate IV 462 514 51 -1.9 Certificate III 1,262 1107 -155 2.4 Certificate II 218 476 258 -14.9 Certificate I 118 198 80 -9.7 3,864 2,933 -931 5.0 Qualification level Requirements to meet 2016 target Adv Diploma Diploma All 10 Expanding VET revenues at 5 per cent per annum from 2006 2006 2011 2016 5430 6930 8845 100 128 163 Increase over 2006 $m 1500 3415 Cumulative addition $m 4,354 17,412 Revenues (all sources) $m Index (2006=100) 11 Issues and future • The base funding is projected to grow at 5 per cent per annum • Eg the base will be $1500 million per year higher in 2011 • ‘Skills for the Future’ provides $837m over 5 years from 2006 • ‘Skills for the Future’ includes employer incentives • State programs eg ‘Skilled Victorians’ extra $241m over 4 years • Migration • Other funding: employers, fees, loans • Reducing cost per hour, as in recent years • Improving completion rates and shortening courses 12