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EN/ADM/2014/Pres/14 An introduction to key concepts commonly used in the analysis of the economy by the Research Department Michael Adams 23 June 2014 MFSM/GFS GFS SNA MFSM SNA BOP 2 Introduction Visually orientated introduction Economists usually focus on economic growth, stability and equity Evaluating the state of the economy: – Economic growth SNA 1993 – Full employment (BC) – Balance of payments (BoP) stability BPM5 – Price and financial market stability MFSM2000 – An equitable distribution of income GFSM2001 QB March 2011 Reason for chart • Three fold • Cannot analyse economy without taking into account all four macroeconomic accounts • According to the four manuals • Three accounts accrual basis (SNA, BoP, MFSM) • 1ST January to 31ST December • One account cash-flow (GFS) ? Semi • 1st April to 31ST March • Adjustments between cash and accrual (challenged) • Economic analysis /inter linkages in the economy across divisions • Staff training and development Economic analysis/interlinkages • Design of the Chart • Colour coded • Segments 1-38 • Follow format of the Quarterly Bulletin • BIG BLOCKS • SNA • Domestic output • Gross domestic expenditure • GFS • General government • Public corporations • All institutions must fit in somewhere in the four macroeconomic accounts Economic relationships Identity relationship: – GDP = GDP agriculture + GDP mining + GDP manufacturing ………… GDP Gov.Services – Trade account = X mining + X agriculture + X manufacturing M mining – M agriculture – M manufacturing – Money supply = M1 + M2 +M3 – Credit extension = Households + corporates – G -T= Deficit Behavioural relationship: – Ct = a + b.Ydt + d.interest ratet+ ɛt QB March 2011 Economic interpretation QB March 2011 Booklet • • • • • • • • Definitions Flow of chart Use for Pre-MPC (discussion) Various forms being used in the Department (NO1, B03, C68 and F02) Balance sheet or income statement Balance sheet – stock position Income statement – flow position Government cash-flow position 8 Economic chart QB March 2011 CONCLUSION No means exhaustive Each division use area to expand Time series structure Overview Reasons for changes Read the Quarterly Bulletin and the economic overview of the country Thank you [email protected] Tel: +27 12 313 3874 Fax: +27 12 313 4014 QB March 2011