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Understanding America’s ‘Immigration Crisis’ Douglas S. Massey Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University Regional Origins of Undocumented Migrants 6% 4% 9% 57% 24% Mexico Other Latin America Asia Europe & Canada Africa & Other Percentage of Undocumented Migrants 60 56.8 50 30 20 10 7.1 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 Country Po la nd ua ic ar ag N R ep D om ra s on du H Ph ilip pi n es ti ai H a C an ad al a ua te m G ad or Sa lv ex ic o 0 M Percentage 40 Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories Legal Immigration Rate 40 Gentlemen's Agreement 35 Contract Worker Rate Operation Wetback Deportation Rate Bracero Program Ends Restrictive Era Begins Bracero Program Begins 30 Rate per 1000 Apprehension Rate US Enters WWI 25 IRCA Enacted Great Depression IRCA Legalization 20 First US Quota Law 15 10 5 0 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Year Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories Legal Immigration Rate 40 Gentlemen's Agreement 35 Contract Worker Rate Operation Wetback Deportation Rate Bracero Program Ends Restrictive Era Begins Bracero Program Begins 30 Rate per 1000 Apprehension Rate US Enters WWI 25 IRCA Enacted Great Depression IRCA Legalization 20 First US Quota Law 15 10 5 0 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Year Six Eras of Mexican Migration • • • • • • Recruitment 1907-1919 Floodtide 1920-1929 Deportations 1930-1941 Bracero 1942-1964 Undocumented 1965-1985 Contradiction 1986-2007 Two Critical Dates in New Era • 1986 – Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT • Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment – U.S. Congress Passes IRCA • Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans • Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring • Begins Militarization of Border • 1994 – Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA • Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital, resources, information, services, and certain classes of people – US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego • All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor • Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains Indicators of Cross-Border Economic Integration Total Trade Business Visitors Intercompany Transferees Exchange Visitors 9 Value Relative to 1986 8 NAFTA Takes Effect Mexico Joins GATT 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002 Border Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget 11 10 IRCA Enacted Value Relative to 1986 9 8 7 Operation Gatekeeper Launched in San Diego 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Costs of Contradiction • Transforms Mexican Immigration from a Regional to a National Phenomenon • Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers • Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension • Reduces Rate of Return Migration • Increases the Rate of Settlement • Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration • Shifts Composition from Workers to Families • Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers Jorge Durand University of Guadalajara and Douglas S. Massey Princeton University http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/ Current MMP Sample 93 Binational Communities Surveyed 1982-2002 15,992 Households 837 in U.S. Sample Yields Basic Data on: 19,850 U.S. Migrants 12,089 Undocumented Migrants 6,209 Complete Life Histories Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations New Destination New Crossing 0.7 Operation Blockade Launched in El Paso Proportion of Migrants 0.6 IRCA Enacted 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98 0.07 Rate per 1,000 Entries 0.06 Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Year Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001 0.4 Operation Blockade Launched in El Paso 0.35 0.3 Probability IRCA Enacted 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote 1400 1200 Operation Blockade Launched in El Paso 1000 Dollars IRCA Enacted 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year Annual Probability Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001 Males Females Return 0.5 0.45 Operation Blockade Launched in El Paso 0.4 0.35 0.3 IRCA Enacted 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002 10000 9000 IRCA Enacted Operation Blockade Launched in El Paso Number in Thousands 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year Average Wages Earned by Mexican Migrants to US Undocumented Documented 13.00 12.00 IRCA Passes Hourly Wage 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year Summary • Strategy of Finessing Contradiction Through Border Militarization Has Not Worked • On the Contrary,It Has Backfired: – Transformed a circular flow of workers going to 3 states into a settled population of families in 50 states – Doubled net undocumented migration to U.S. – Lowered probability of apprehension – Caused hundreds of needless deaths per year – Reduced wages of legal workers and citizens – All at great cost to taxpayers From Border Enforcement to Immigration Management • New philosophy of immigration control – Rather than viewing Mexican immigration as a pathological condition to be suppressed by police actions along the border – See it as a natural outgrowth of economic integration in North America and work to manage in ways that benefit of all parties • Take lesson from the European Union – Canada & U.S. should treat Mexico in same way that Northern Europe when it brought Spain into the E.U. Figure 1. Openness of Spanish economy 1954-2004 72 Spain Enters EU 66 60 Franco Dies Openness Index 54 48 Spain Applies for Entry to EU 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Year 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Figure 2. Real GDP per capita in Spain and Northern Europe 1954-2004. 28000 26000 Spain Applies for EU Entry 24000 Northern Europe Spain Enters EU 22000 GDP per Capita 20000 18000 Spain 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Year 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Figure 3. Spain's transition to EU membership: migration, income, and openness 2.2 Openness 2 Indicator relative to 1986 1.8 Spain Enters EU 1.6 1.4 GDP Gap with Northern Europe 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 Gross Emigration of Spaniards 0.4 Net Emigration of Spaniards 0.2 0 1984 -0.2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -0.4 Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Figure 4. Structural adjustrment funds transferred from EU to Spain 1986-1999 4000 Regional Development Fund 3500 Millions of US Dollars 3000 2500 Social Fund 2000 1500 Cohesion Fund 1000 500 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Figure 5. Oppenness of Mexican versus Spanish economy 1954-2004. 80 70 Mexico Joins GATT Opennness Index 60 Mexico Joins NAFTA 50 40 30 20 Mexico 10 Spain 0 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 Year 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Figure 8. Real GDP per capita in Canada and the United States versus Mexico 35000 Mexico Enters NAFTA Mexico Joins GATT 30000 GDP per Capita 25000 Canada and United States 20000 15000 10000 Mexico 5000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Figure 9. Mexico's entry into NAFTA: migration, income, and openness 4 Openness Value Relative to 1986 3.5 3 2.5 Permanent Emigration 2 1.5 GDP Gap 1 0.5 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Figure 11. Openness of Polish versus Mexican economy 1970-2004 70 Mexico Joins GATT 60 Communism Ends in Poland Openness Index 50 40 30 20 10 Mexico Joins NAFTA Poland Joins European Union 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Agenda for Reform • Increase Quotas for Mexico and Canada • Re-establish Guestworker Program – Visas to workers rather than employers • Issue National ID to All Legal Workers • Structural Adjustment Fund Instead of Walls • Legalize Undocumented Population – Amnesty for those who entered as minors – Guestworker visa for recent arrivals – Earned legalization for long-term residents