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African Agricultural and Mechanization Trends Mechanization Trends in Africa Macro Economic Review – Growth – Demand – Crop Value 2 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Global Macro Economy World GDP growth 10 Annual % Change 8 6 4 2 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -2 Developed Developing -4 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook , October 08, 2013 33 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 2010 2012 2014F 2016F 2018F Sub-Saharan Africa GDP Growth 8 Annual % Change 7 2000/12 Avg. = 5.5% 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook , October 08, 2013 4 4 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 2010 2012 2014F 2016F 2018F Population Growth in Emerging Markets Geographic Distribution of Population Growth, 2000 to 2013 More Developed Regions* 10 Less Developed Regions Least Developed Regions 2050 Billions 2000 5 2013 9.6B 7.2B 6.1B 0 1950 1975 2000 1.1B 2025 1.2% 4% 56% 30% 9% *More Developed Regions: Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2012 Revision 55 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 2050 Global Grains Production and Consumption 2,500 Global Grains (mmt) Production Consumption 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Consumption has exceeded production 8 of the last 14 years Source: USDA/WASDE, September 2013 6 6 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 13F CRB Futures Index – All Commodities January 1970 – September 2013 Source: Informa Economics, September 2013 7 7 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Key Messages The potential for increased Ag production in Africa is enormous and some countries matter more than others Factors other than agronomic potential will enable or constrain each country’s growth potential. 8 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Key Messages The potential for increased Ag production in Africa is enormous and some countries matter more than others Factors other than agronomic potential will enable or constrain each country’s growth potential. 9 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Gross value of crop production in SSA* totaled $201 Billion in 2010, and was largely the result of a few key crops Yams $30.9 billion (15.4%) Sorghum $8.8 billion (4.4%) Cassava $24 billion (11.9%) Fruit $29.6 billion (14.7%) Rice $17.8 billion (8.8%) Vegetables $22.5 billion (11.2%) Maize $13 billion (6.4%) 1% 3% 5% Cereals 14.7% 24% Roots & Tubers 11% Fibre Crops 11.2% 1% 4% Pulses 33% Vegetables + Melon Fruit Production Value Source: FAO, Harvested Area (185M ha) 10 15% Treenuts 5% 1% 50% Oilcrops 2% 13% Harvested Area * 26 countries reporting | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 18 countries account for 85% of the harvested area of all crops in SSA with high agriculture potential and macroeconomic and geopolitical stability. 45 40 35 30 2007-2011 Average Harvested Area (Million Hectare) 25 20 15 10 5 0 * SOURCE: FAO, 2007-2011 Average * Data representative of Sudan (former), majority of harvested area in current South Sudan 11 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Current yield attainment is generally higher in developed countries as a result of better agronomic practices. Potential yield is driven by the climatic fit of each crop. Ton/ha Ton/ha Maize 12 10 100% 8 90% 7 80% 70% 8 60% 6 50% 40% 4 Potential Yield (ton/ha) 100% 90% 80% 6 70% 5 Current Yield (ton/ha) 4 Yield Attainment % 3 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2 0 Africa 18 US 1 0% 0 Brazil India China Russia | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 30% 2 10% Source: Foley at al. nature10452-s1.pdf 12 Rice 20% 10% 0% Africa 18 US Brazil India China Smallholders manage the vast majority of farmland in SSA They account for 80% of the harvested area Harvested Area (M Ha) % of Total Area Cereals 92.2 50% Oil Crops 27.5 15% Roots & Tubers 23.9 13% Pulses 20.6 11% Fruit 9.1 5% Vegetables 5.2 3% Fiber Crops 4.2 2% Tree Nuts 2.2 1% Total 185 Customer Segment Harvested Area (M Ha) % of Total Area Smallholder (working up to 10 Ha) 148 80% Commercial 37 20% SOURCE: FAO Smallholder Factsheet 13 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Asia & Africa Agricultural Customer Census Data % of Contractors Less than 12% of African farmers own 4 wheeled 87% tractors, China 40% of them are also working as contractors 3% India 12% 52% 1% 41% 19% 0.3% 3% 5% 0.2% 22% 98% Asia 1% 0.8% 5% SSA (Less RSA) 0.2% 8% 0 0.25 84% 0.5 9% 1 2 5 10 25 100 (in Hectare) Land Holding Size Subsistence Famer Micro Holders Small Holder Medium Holders Large Holders Cano not afford mechanization/ outsourcing Starting Mechanization Ownership (0-20%) Mechanization Ownership at (20% 80%) Mechanized (80%-100%) Fully mechanized (100%) Note: 1. Land holding size includes the land customers owned, rented or leased land | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 14 2. Mechanization is measured by either a. owning a 2 axle Ag equipment or b. outsourced to a mechanized method. 3. SSA uses different criteria: 10% for outsourcing and 20% for self servicing Improving agricultural output requires the management of these agronomic fundamentals. Input Placement Input Agronomic Application Form Fundamentals Timing Application Rate 15 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Low natural soil fertility levels impact on yield is compounded by annual mining of soil N-P-K. On average, 13 kg/ha of nutrients are applied compared to 38kg/ha of nutrients removed through the harvesting of grain. 300 Total Fertilizer Applied kg/ha (N + P2O5 + K2O) Fertilizer NPK 250 Input Placement 200 150 Input Form Agronomic Fundamentals Application Timing 100 50 Application Rate 0 * Maize Grain and Biomass only Source: World Bank 16 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Alfisols Oxisols Ultisols Grain* NPK Mechanization for the placement of fertilizer is critical to making more nutrients available to the crop, especially in tropical soils. Broadcast Fertilizer Input Placement Input Form Agronomic Fundamentals Application Timing Application Rate 17 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Banded Fertilizer Timing of planting to capture early season rains can have a significant impact on yield. Timing can be optimized with mechanization compared to hand planting, which is limited to after the rains have started due to hard ground conditions. High Temp oC Low Temp oC Precipitation (cm) Input Placement 40 Central Zambia 30 Input Form Agronomic Fundamentals Application Timing 20 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Application Rate Ideal planting Current window planting window 18 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Open-Pollinated Variety conversion to Hybrid seeds Input Placement Input Form Agronomic Fundamentals Sales Agronomist Application Timing Pioneer Extension Partners Retailer Distribution Application Rate Sales, Education & Support Farmer Pioneer Extension Partners • Commissioned Sales • Quantity growing 3x to nearly 11,000 employees in next 5 years 19 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 The limited access to knowledge of agronomic fundamentals and financing to acquire inputs and mechanization is contributing to the yield attainment gaps in Sub-Sahara Africa. Input Placement Agronomic Input Form Fundamentals Application Timing Application Rate 20 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Key Messages The potential for increased Ag production in Africa is enormous and some countries matter more than others Factors other than agronomic potential will enable or constrain each country’s growth potential. 21 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Africa’s projected CAGR growth is forecasted at approximately 4.6 % between 2008 and 2023. The forecasted growth is second only to emerging Asia. African GDP, 2005 $ billion PPP Compound annual growth rate, % Compound annual GDP growth, 2008–23 %, 2005 PPP$ Emerging Asia 4.6 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 Middle East 3.6 4.5 SOURCE: Global Insight | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 4.6 Africa Central and Eastern Europe 3.3 Latin America 3.9 World 3.8 Developed economies 22 6.7 1.7 GDP per Capita for the top and middle 6 countries remains reasonably strong relative to the immense population growth during this time period. Top 6 Middle 6 Bottom 6 30,908 10,000.0 4.5% 9,000.0 4.0% 8,000.0 3.5% 7,000.0 3.0% 6,000.0 2.5% 5,000.0 2.0% 4,000.0 1.5% 3,000.0 1.0% 2,000.0 0.5% 1,000.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.5% 2010 SOURCE: Global Insight 23 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 2043 CAGR The infrastructure deficit in Africa is significant, particularly in rural areas. Rural Access Index SSA Electricity access is only 25% 1 in 3 rural Africans have access to an all-season road. Source: The World Bank Group 24 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Sub-Sahara Africa has great need for infrastructure and it’s impact on Ag can be significant Top 6 25% Middle 6 Bottom 6 % Paved Roads 20% 15% 10% 5% NA 0% SOURCE: CIA.gov 500 Delivered Fertilizer Price (US$) Losses 400 Corruption & Red Tape Dealer Cost & Margin 300 Importer Margin 200 Transport & Storage Port Costs & Duties 100 CIF 0 US SOURCE: Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, 2013 25 Financial Costs | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Zambia FOB Rural Accessibility Index Improving rural accessibility would entail a huge expansion of Africa’s road network. The cost of addressing Africa’s infrastructure needs is around $93 billion a year, about one-third of which is for maintenance. 100% 80% R2 = 0.97 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Thousands of kilometers of all season road needed Source: Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation; Foster and Briceno-Garmendia 26 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 Zambia, the tipping point. Production CORT (kt) 6,000 Tractors Industry (units) 800 Zambia FRA implemented premium price for smallholder corn together with seed and fertilizer subsidies. 700 600 4,000 500 3,000 400 300 2,000 200 1,000 100 - FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 CORT = Cereals, Oilseeds, Root and Tubers FRA = Food Reserve Agency 27 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Tractor Units Production and GDP Units 5,000 AG GDP (Curr. USD Mil) In Conclusion – Sub-Sahara Africa has enormous potential and when the catalysts of agricultural development act, growth can be rapid – Small holder success is the key to unlocking agricultural productivity across the region – Mechanization is key a key facilitator of small holder success – Governments are a critical enabler of the development of agriculture. Their ability and effectiveness vary by country, but once they engage, advancement can be rapid. 28 | Immersion| Africa Prioritization | 10 October 2013