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Securing the infrastructure -international reflections Professor Howard Williams Distributional Issues • We need ask the fundamental question about the specific values and returns we expect from BB infrastructures? • Trade perspectives and call patterns • This is not a straight forward question ! • There are profound distributional issues – Sprint and Apple in the USA; $15bn transfer • Colombia has reached a key point; over 4 million connections, high growth rates in the recent past. • Who are those without access? • Who is extracting value from those who have access? • Theoretical issues – greatest distortion flow from distorted/subsidised input prices (Diamond/Mireless) Main themes • Distributional issues • BB eco system • Infrastructure Overselling BB – Charles Kenny Year Income level Predicted Values at Given GDP/Capita Average Values 1,000 5,000 10,000 30,000 Average Values Poor Rich Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people) 2001 2008 neg neg 21 109 38 205 64 357 5 15 66 331 Fixed broadband subscribers (per 100 people) 2001 2008 neg neg 0.6 5.7 1 10.1 1.7 16.9 0 1.3 1.8 16 Internet users (per 100 people) 2001 2008 neg neg 9 24 15 36 24 54 2 12 25 50 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 2001 2008 neg 24 21 71 32 91 51 124 6 52 53 115 Fixed line subscriptions (per 100 people) 2001 2008 neg neg 19 17 28 24 42 37 8.6 8.3 41.8 35.1 % of Firms Using Email % of Firms using Own Website Literacy rate, adult total (% ) School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) Value Lost Due to Power Outages (% of Sales) ICT Exenditure ($/capita) GDP Density ('000/km) Rural population (% of total population) 2009 2009 2008 2008 2009 2008 2008 2008 49 16 66 6 6 59 neg 68 69 39 83 32 4 290 8518 48 77 49 91 43 3 576 17690 39 91 66 103 61 1 1714 32229 25 59 27 75 20 6 206 417 57 81 55 95 60 2 1429 26926 28 (Average GDP/Capita) 2001 2008 3,526 3,553 25,278 24,926 Social Networking Dating High Gambling Gaming Network Effects/ Customer Switching Costs Ad Networks VoIP Operating Systems Games Consoles Web Search Smart Phones Digital Music/Video Sales e-Commerce3 Medium Portals Ad Agencies Content Rights Low High Med Low 30%+ 10-20% <10% PCs Medium Economies of Relative ROCE2 Internet Access Web Hosting/ Design Low Online Billing/ Payments High Scale1 75% 45% 30% VoD (1) IPTV (5) VoIP (1) Media Rights (15) Dating (2) e-Brokerage (19) Social Networks (3) Internet Access (164) Web Hosting (10) 0% <10% Digital Music Sales (4) 10-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% e-Retail (72) Billing/ Payments (21) Directories (5) Consumer Publishing (7) Market Concentration1 Adult (11) Content Mgt (1) Market CAGR 20082013 Digital Video sales (1) Ad Agencies (16) 80%+ Ad Networks (11) Gambling (6) Web Search (30) Software (2) PCs (95) Smart Phones (27) Video Gaming (9) e-Travel (49) Games Consoles (13) Global Portals (4) Average ROCE Operating Systems (6) 40% Two sided markets: Low spend customers benefit most from receiving calls Through CPP, revenue from received calls allows low spending users to be connected, even though the scale of subsidy is small. Contribution to total ARPU, by value Receiving calls Making calls > Although high spending customers receive a lot of calls, the revenue from this is greatly exceeded by what they pay for making calls. > The majority of revenue for the lowest spending group comes from receiving calls. 11% 17% 17% 13% 9% 7% Percentage of the total mobile users in each ARPU band Source: Vodafone customers in Delhi 7 5% 4% 7% Making Broadband Accessible for All 10% > Low spending users are able to maintain a pre-pay account without an ongoing subscription. > The lowest spending group represent 11% of users but 23 May 2017 only 1% of revenue. Bringing broadband to the majority of citizens Fibre offers the fastest speeds at the greatest cost (suitable for high demand users); wireless is the cheapest and fastest way to reach universal broadband coverage. Fibre Wireless > Optical fibre offers broadband connections up to 100Mb/s > Fibre is very costly to install; as access network it is only commercially viable in denselypopulated, affluent areas > 70% of the cost of a next generation fibre network is in the last 100m of the access network > Wireless broadband can offer speeds from <1Mb/s (3G and its developments HSPA+) to over 40Mb/s (LTE) > Bringing wireless broadband to rural areas will require significant investment but remains the cheapest access technology > Advanced services, such as e-health, can be reliably provided using wireless broadband Fibre 100 LTE Speed (Mbit/s) Cable 10 ADSL 3G 1 23 May 2017 8 HSPA+ Making Broadband Accessible for All Streamed HD video Advanced e-health YouTube Internet, Email Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in India Only the dense urban areas have sufficient aggregate monthly income per km2 to support the cost of a fibre access network, but almost all districts support wireless. Network cost as a % of district income Wireless Dense rural geotype Rural geotype > The equivalent monthly cost of fibre per km2 can be determined by the revenue per customer that WIK calculated as being necessary to support a viable network, for each geotype. > Placing each district into its geotype, we can compare the aggregate monthly income per district to the calculated monthly income (Net District Domestic Product/NDDP). > ITU data shows the demand for telecom services is commonly 2-5% of state GDP. Only in Mumbai and Thane districts does the cost of fibre approach wireless, as a % of monthly NDDP Source: State Economic Census for Maharashtra, WIK study of fibre network cost, Vodafone analysis 23 May 2017 Maharashtra illustrates the urban / rural split > The cost of fibre would represent 1% of NDDP in Mumbai and 4% in Thane. These are ‘dense urban’ and ‘less suburban geotypes’. In all other districts, the equivalent cost of fibre would be a much greater % of district income, rising to 61% of NDDP in Washim and 177% in Gadchiroli. > The equivalent cost of wireless broadband is 3% or less of district income. 9 Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in Jo’burg Repeating exercise for suburbs of Johannesburg shows that fibre roll-out likely to be challenging for the majority of the population Fibre network cost as a % of income Joburg highlights economics of bbd investment > Repeat exercise for districts of Jo’burg. > The richest parts of Jo’burg are in high cost deployment areas; whereas low income areas are in dense areas which are lower cost to deploy. > The cost of fibre would represent over 10% of income Diepkloof. Whereas, high income levels in Parkview means it is profitable to deploy fibre. > The equivalent cost of wireless broadband for Diepkloof is 4% or less of income. Wireless is less than half the cost of fibre for low income areas of Johannesburg 23 May 2017 10 Relative viability of fibre and wireless broadband in India Charting the equivalent monthly cost of fibre and wireless networks as a % of monthly district income demonstrates that fibre only affordable in dense urban districts, but that wireless is less than 4% of monthly NDDP in all except the most rural districts. Maharashtra Karnataka Rajasthan Gadchiroli wireless 8% / fibre 177% Washim Osmanabad Hingoli Yavatmal Beed Jalna Buldhana Dhule Amravati Sindhudurg Nandurbar Chandrapur Wardha Parbhani Gondia Ratnagiri Ahmednagar Solapur Satara Nanded Latur Akola Bhandara Jalgaon Sangli Aurangabad Raigad Nashik Kolhapur Nagpur Pune Jalore Nagaur Tonk Jodhpur Baran Pali Cittoragarh Jhalawar Hanumangarh Bundi Karoli Sirohi Sriganganagar Udaipur Bhilwara Gulbarga Haveri Mandya Ramanagara Belgaum Davanagere Kolar Udupi Mysore Dharwad Bangalore rural D.Kannada Dungarpur Swaimadhopur Dholpur Sikar Jhunjhunu Rajsamand Dausa Ajmer Bharatpur Kota Alwar Jaipur Banswara Bangalore Mumbai 23 May 2017 wireless 3% / fibre 131% wireless 3% / fibre 127% wireless 3% / fibre 170% wireless 12% / fibre 573% U.Kannada Koppal Chamarajanagar Bijapur Chikmagalur Chitradurga Raichur Bidar Gadag Chikballapur Hassan Tumkur Shimoga Kodagu Bagalkot Bellary Thane 0% Churu Bikaner Barmer Jaisalmer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 20% 40% 60% 80% All 0% Rural Dense rural Less suburban Dense urban 20% 40% 60% 80% 11 Professor Howard Williams [email protected] Additional highlights from the presentation include: - The average internet user in Colombia spent 20.4 hours online during September, consuming 1,606 pages of content and averaging 42 online visits during the month. - 86% of Colombians visited a social networking destination in September, with Facebook leading the category. Visitors averaged 4.6 hours on the site during the month. - Nearly 7 out of 10 Colombians visited a photo sharing site in September led by Facebook.com Photos. - An average searcher in Colombia conducted 184 searches in September, resulting in a total of 2 billion queries conducted in Colombia during the month. (comScore, December 2010)