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Enlargement and social policy Nick Manning University of Nottingham, UK [email protected] Key issues in session 1 • Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states • Differences between old and new members • Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12 Impact of enlargement on the socioeconomic models in the new member states • Away from state socialism • Towards neo-liberal, or not • Cyclical swings • Towards the ESM? ….. We need to look at “models” What is social policy? … all models do this: functions • Production – human capital investment • Reproduction – health and education • Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty … with a mix of these: Inputs • Direct Supply • Finance • Regulation Outputs • Meeting needs - equity • economic efficiency • political stability What is European social policy? • From the “outside” • • • • ESM (Neo) Liberal Productivist Clientalist • From the “inside” – • national welfare regimes » » » » » Continental - equity Nordic – equity & efficiency Anglo - efficiency Mediterranean - neither Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency ESM • • • • Social democratic - 1980s Neo-liberal - 2004 Flexicurity – (back to) the future? Marshall’s hyphenated society: democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s European social policy preferences • A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and values (Dauderstadt, 2002) • Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection (Daly, JCMS, 2006) • Equality • Non-discrimination • Solidarity • Redistribution (European Parliament, 2006) How does social policy change? • ESM’s triple transformation – Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender – European integration – European enlargement • Constitutional asymmetry – European economic rules constrain national states – National states impede European SP, politically, economically and culturally – New member states Three ‘worlds of compliance’ • World of law observance (DK, SE, FI) – compliance even if difficult • World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES, UK) – compliance if no other difficulties • World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT) – non-compliance typical • Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom – Leiber, S (2007) JESP EU/enlargement and social policy change – some models (1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself elite EU + Poland + EU Turkey +/- civil/mass society + + - (2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain) • • • • • EU - a model means for political action establish a vision of preferred future grasp the means of realising the vision procedural and substantive change (3) Policy transfers (most EU members) • • • • • • Adopted where they fit OECD advice routinely rejected values for or against networks of contacts definitions of the problem to solved Positive, instrumental or coercive? (4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same? • • • • Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain per capita income social protection spending eurobarometer life satisfaction (5) A “regulatory union”? • Cost • Prior systems • Implementation (no worse than old members) (6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now • Cost • Population size (7) Cultural context • • • • • Gender Family Religion Military Political roots Differences between old and new members? • Tax – is there a race to bottom? – no evidence for this • Wages – level and dispersion – NME’s growing and dispersing • Government spending – level and trends – Slow convergence in different cycles Figure 1 Real GDP growth (figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001, Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for comparison) Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12 • Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS • Social spending – Health – continued variation – Pensions - this is complex – Education – continued variation • • • • • Crime – not as bad as we think Women – NMS better than many OMS Minorities – highly varied across the EU Migration – already slowing down Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never? – general convergence, but very, very slow Race to bottom? • low wage competition • low social standards • higher unemployment Race to the top? • Skilled workforce with high wages • Good social protection • Low unemployment