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Climate Change: 1% of your money or your life? Mark Atherton – Greater Manchester Combined Authority Todd Holden – Greater Manchester Growth Company Greater Manchester Combined Authority Greater Manchester (GM) • UK’s largest & fastest growing regional economy: GVA £46bn • 2.6 million residents and a workforce area of 7.2 million people • Low carbon and environmental goods sector worth £5.4 billion, which supports 37,000 jobs - projected to grow at more than 4% pa Combined Authority (GMCA) • AGMA established in 1986, GMCA formed in 2011 • 10 Local Authorities of Greater Manchester working at scale • Established a Low Carbon Hub in 2012: • A centre of excellence for achieving economic gain through integrated delivery of carbon reduction. • Harnesses the knowledge of our universities with the innovation of our businesses and strong public governance of the GMCA Delivery Approach Themes and Sub-groups Skills and Sector Development Enable and Measure Outcomes Low Carbon Hub Priorities 2014 Buildings • Deliver 5,500 domestic retrofit measures and demonstration homes • Facilitate work with the private sector to encourage commercial buildings retrofit • Drive the business case for public sector buildings retrofit Transport • Review outputs from GM Carbon Metrics Study and establish potential options to reduce carbon emissions • Utilise low carbon transport study outputs to identify key strategic interventions Natural Capital • Act as ambassador for the natural environment • Identify key green and blue infrastructure and biodiversity assets • Quantify value of natural environment assets • Develop an investment framework Sector growth Raise the profile of the LCEGS sector Attract inwards investment from overseas Enablers: • Adaptation and resilience • Behaviour change • Communications • Influencing GM policy and strategy, • Monitoring and metrics • Funding / bid development • Review of 12-15 implementation plan; update to 2020 (building on wedges approach) Energy • Explore GM Energy Enterprise • Deliver priority heat network and smart heat programmes, assess potential for wind, geothermal and hydro • Support research on energy infrastructure planning and behaviour change SCP • Help businesses to benefit from transition to a more sustainable economy • Encourage and enable choices which reduce waste and maximise value of waste streams • Develop GM approach to sustainable food • Support public sector procurement to maximise SCP gains Deliver a sector development programme Monitor impact of the social value procurement framework Skills Maximise job and training opportunities through the Green Deal programme Identify skills demands required to deliver all sub-groups’ work programmes Work with colleges and training providers to articulate needs for skills development in GM low carbon economy Powering Greater Manchester: how will we fuel our future? Powering Greater Manchester: how will we fuel our future? • • • • • • • Outlines the 3 energy objectives Explains the energy market Summary of future energy demand, price and investment levels needed Picture of key UK and Greater Manchester Policy Implications of Energy Policy in GM with respect to • Business • Households • Jobs and growth • Carbon emissions Outlines 4 future scenarios and the implication of each constituent Conclusion The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765 4 Possible Scenarios Stagnation: Central Government energy policy remains insufficient, low renewable energy deployment rate and slow and variable increases in energy prices Business as usual: Central Government energy policy remains insufficient, low renewable energy deployment rate and fast and continuous increase in energy prices Utopia: Government policy especially Electricity Market Reform sends the required market signal - high renewable energy deployment rate and slow and variable increase in energy price rises The Big Bang: Government policy especially Electricity Market Reform sends the required market signals - high renewable energy deployment rate and fast and continuous increase in energy prices The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765 Success of Government policy and GM initiatives Price of Energy Low Slow and variable increase in energy prices Fast and continual increase in energy prices Stagnation No real change in fuel poverty Energy prices continue to be a major concern for businesses Uncertainly limits business investment Low carbon sector does not grow 3TWh heat target missed Business as Usual Increase fuel poverty Energy costs cripple businesses with small profit margins / a high energy demand impacting on the viability of key sectors such as Textiles Limited growth in low carbon sector due to low demand 3TWh heat target missed Utopia Extensive investment in decentralised energy reduces fuel costs and poverty Business benefit from being connected to district heating schemes High / community decentralised energy reducing energy costs & increase business competitiveness Strong local energy sector Electricity and heat targets exceeded Big bang Households partially shielded from the impact of energy prices / some progress in reducing fuel poverty Businesses are partially protected from the energy prices. Growth in low carbon sector but no GM advantage Electricity and heat targets exceeded The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765 Key Conclusions: • Likely to meet the Renewable Electricity, renewable heat target is dependent on the Scenario • Both targets could be increased as • 1 TWh renewable electricity represents 9% of 2011 electricity demand • 3 TWh renewable heat represents 12% of 2011 heat demand • Rate of deployment is key to secure local business benefit • the higher the deployment rate the more local the benefit • long lead in time require early action • Local participation is needed to secure local economic and social benefit • Community schemes • Individual / business projects The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessary reflect those of the GMCA or the Low Carbon Hub http://neweconomymanchester.com/stories/1765 Wedges Approach to Carbon Emissions 1. Review existing data to establish wedges up to 2015 2. Develop options for the emissions reduction wedges from 2015 to 2020 3. Appraise the options and make recommendations Progress to Date Breakdown of 2012 emission