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The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook Matt Hourihan February 5, 2014 for the Society of Research Administrators International AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018 30% 25% Defense Discretionary 20% Nondefense Discretionary 15% Mandatory 10% Net Interest 5% 0% Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. © 2013 AAAS Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014 14.0% 2.5% 12.0% 2.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request. © 2013 AAAS 0.0% R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale) *Keep in mind… Department of Defense development activities have declined more than everything else R&D Change by Budget Function, 2004-2013 Percent change from FY 2004 in constant dollars, post-sequestration Applied Energy Programs 18.3% Commerce (NIST) 18.9% Environment Agencies -20.9% Agriculture -20.3% General Science (NSF, DOE SC) Space* Health (NIH) Defense Activities -30% 8.5% -14.8% -13.4% -16.0% -10% 10% * To avoid comparability challenges, "Space" refers to total NASA budget authority rather than R&D spending. It does not include Aeronautics, which is in the "Transportation" function, not shown. Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2013 AAAS 30% Recent R&D Budget History R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12 August 2011: Budget Control Act AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5 years January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two different spending baselines December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester rollback for FY14 Department of Defense DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T programs Basic research at all-time high Nanotechnology, materials science DARPA: small from FY12 Medical research BIG increase NIH Continuing stagnation Most institutes about halfway between sequester and FY12 Largest increases: National Institute on Aging, NCATS Translational medicine, Alzheimer’s research, BRAIN Initiative, National Children’s Study Success rates down to 16.8 percent in FY13 Department of Energy Generally good news Science: much closer to Senate mark Advanced Computing and Fusion (especially domestic research) Energy Frontier Research Centers at $100 million Clean energy programs (EERE, ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine NNSA R&D also picked up significant funding DOE R&D at all-time high NASA Positive outcomes for Science, Exploration Planetary Science avoids deeper cuts; Europa Mission? Largest increase for Webb Telescope Skepticism toward asteroid mission Clear commitment to nextgeneration flights systems, also commercial spaceflight Aeronautics, Space Tech flat National Science Foundation Lower number than other agencies, about even with FY12 Appropriator support for ocean research, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing R&D, neuroscience Social Sciences research restrictions lifted Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to commence construction Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act doubling target USDA Another good outcome Intramural R&D: Request matched Minus poultry research center Extramural R&D: closer to Dems than GOP Big boost for AFRI Forest Service dodges cuts Farm Bill establishes ag research foundation Other notes Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short DHS got (mostly) what it wanted NIST not looking bad Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded TOTAL GDP Looking ahead… President’s budget to be released March 4, for now Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been agreed And will increase hardly at all 25% of sequester reductions rolled back Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels Current Politics: The “Pong” Model? Raise revenues! The science and innovation budget Cut spending! Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…! For more info… [email protected] 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/