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Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan October 9, 2013 for the Science Diplomats Club AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018 30% 25% Defense Discretionary 20% Nondefense Discretionary 15% Mandatory 10% Net Interest 5% 0% Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014. © 2013 AAAS Composition of the FY 1980 Budget outlays in billions of dollars Net Interest $53 Defense Discretionary $120 Other Mandatory $100 [Defense R&D] $15 Medicaid $14 Medicare $31 Nondefense Discretionary $126 Social Security $117 [Nondefense R&D] $16 Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013. © 2012 AAAS Composition of the FY 2017 Budget? outlays in billions of dollars Net Interest $566 Defense Discretionary $515 [Defense R&D] $66 Nondefense Discretionary $517 Other Mandatory $714 [Nondefense R&D] $63 Medicaid $423 Social Security $1,026 Medicare $633 Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2013. © 2012 AAAS Emergent Budget Tendencies Discretionary spending tends to be constrained… Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan Late 1980s/early 1990s: spending caps 2011 Budget Control Act caps While mandatory spending tends to grow Health care costs Expanding beneficiaries, aging population Medicare Part D, Affordable Care Act… …versus failed efforts at control/constraint/reform And, of course, anti-tax politics Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014 14.0% 2.5% 12.0% 2.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.5% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request. © 2013 AAAS 0.0% R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale) *Keep in mind… Department of Defense technology development activities have declined a little more than everything else Enter FY 2014: Admin R&D Priorities Clear shift from D to R And from Defense to Nondefense Science + Innovation COMPETES Agencies Advanced Manufacturing Translational Medicine Clean Energy + Environment Defense technology cuts STEM education R&D Changes by Function Since 2004 percent change from FY 2004 to FY 2014, in constant FY 2013 dollars Applied Energy Programs 88.4% Commerce (NIST) 66.5% General Science (NSF, DOE SC) 20.2% Environment Agencies -7.3% Health (NIH) -7.8% Agriculture -8.2% Defense Activities -40% -14.8% -20% 0% 20% 40% Source: AAAS Research and Development series, OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2013 AAAS 60% 80% 100% The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to presequester levels Every agency would receive major increases above FY13 Approps: What Have We Learned? Everybody still mostly likes science and innovation funding… Though to varying degrees But again, fiscal politics trumps all Current Politics: The “Pong” Model? Raise revenues! The science and innovation budget Cut nondefense spending! Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…! Some concluding thoughts… If increasing aggregate R&D is the goal… Should the sci & innovation community take broader fiscal view? Science as % of discretionary? Discretionary as % of total? Social spending is popular. Responsible taxation is unpopular How to grapple with tradeoffs If we’re to ask more of the taxpayer: Should science programs more directly tie to public outcomes? Temporal problem: allocative spending and tax policy is about past & present, science and innovation spending is about future The alternative: Glide along happy with what we’ve got? Notes about shutdown… Intramural vs. extramural vs. contractors i.e. ARS/NIH vs. universities vs. JPL Impacts: radio telescopes; Antarctic station; meetings and symposia Clock is ticking for some big-ticket items A transient event, one hopes For more info… [email protected] 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/