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The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies / CDDRL
Stanford University
Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecture Series
2008
“Economic Growth, Poverty, Populism, and Democracy”
“Can The Poor Afford Democracy? : A Presidential Perspective.”
(Final Lecture)
STUDY/BOOK PROJECT
Alejandro Toledo Ph.D.
President of Peru, 2001-2006
President, Global Center for Development and Democracy (GCDD)
Payne Distinguished Visiting Lecturer (CDDRL) Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies, Stanford University
Distinguished Fellow, Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences
(CASBS), Stanford University
Political Democracy
Election Day
APEC Chile 2004
Elected Presidents
With power in their hands.
Economic Growth
South American Interoceanic Highway
Export Agro Industry
Faces Of Poverty
Early Malnutrition
Lack Of Drinkable
Water
Child Labor
Social Unrest: Counterproductive For Growth
Authoritarian Populism
Poverty and Democracy
Democratic
Governability
Economic
Growth
Democratic
Institutions
Poverty and Exclusion
Reduction
Premises:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
We cannot redistribute poverty: The final objective is not that everyone is equally poor.
Economic growth is an indispensable (but insufficient) component for any poverty and
exclusion reduction strategy.
Economic, social, political and legal stability are indispensable to attract national and
foreign capital investment.
Within a market economy, there is a need for deliberate social policies and specific
projects targeted to the extremely poor.
There is a high need for accountability on the part of governments at different levels.
Conceptual Framework
Conventional Wisdom
Economic Growth
Poverty & Inequality
Reduction
Income Levels
The conventional wisdom among most development economists and policy makers is that
economic growth and increases in income levels are the key, and at times the only crucial,
components for any poverty reduction strategy. The literature on this is
abundant in Latin America as well as in USA, And Europe.
Less examined is the reverse proposition: That high levels of poverty and social exclusion may
in fact constitute real impediments to achieve the needed social, economic, political, and legal
stability for sustained economic growth and democratic governability in the region.
This development process perspective recognizes the existence of “vicious circles” in which low
economic growth accentuates poverty and high poverty, in turn, results in a low economic
growth and fragile governability.
This study/book seeks to examine the ways and means to convert this “vicious circle” into
“virtuous circle” in which poverty, exclusion/inequality reduction, and sustained economic growth
could support each other and strengthen democracy, thus preventing the surge of irresponsible
populism and destabilizing forces which undermine sustainable development.
Other Manifestations of Poverty
• Unemployment
• Infant Mortality
• Malnutrition
• Lack of access to quality health and education
• Vulnerability to economic crisis
• Ethnic social exclusion
Indigenous People: New
Challenges for the 21st Century
Democracies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Increase in access to quality health and education
Assure effective social inclusion (particularly the indigenous population)
Indigenous people of Latin America emerge with old inequalities diverse
realities and new obligations for 21st century democracies.
Regions impatient with the democracy
High inequalities
Lack of availability of jobs,
Rural, urban contrasts.
Inclusion with mutual respect for cultural diversities.
From the Analysis and the Lectures
To the
Actions
Social Agenda for Democracy in Lat. America
Social Indicators [Demographics]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
2026
Total
Population By
Gender
Population By
Age & Gender
Population By
Urban & Rural
Areas By
Gender
Childbirth
Survival Rate
Global Rate Of
Fecundity
Gross Birthrate
Gross Mortality
Rate
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Education]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
2026
Literacy Rate
Age 15+ By
Gender
School
Registration
Rate By
Gender
Average
Student/Teach
er Ratio
Public
Expenditure In
Education
% Of Students
Starting 1st
Grade &
Finishing 5th
School
Assistance In
Urban Areas
Per Capita Per
Income
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Health]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Mortality Rate Children
Under 5 (UNICEF)
Child Mortality Rate
Maternal Mortality Rate
Underweight Rates
Children Under 5 By
Gender
% Children Measles
Vaccination (UNICEFOMS)
Childbirths Employing
Specialized Sanitary
Personnel
HIV Prevalence For
Mothers Age 15-24
Contraceptive Use By
Married Women 15-49
Malaria Mortality Rate
Tuberculosis Mortality
Rate
Inhabitants Per Doctor
Hospital Beds Per
Inhabitants
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2026
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Housing]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Occupied Housing
According To Type Of
Possession By Urban &
Rural Areas
Homes With Basic
Services By Urban &
Rural Areas
Population With
Sustainable Access To
Drinking Water
Resources By Urban &
Rural Areas
Population With Access
To Proper Drainage
Service By Urban Rural
Areas
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2026
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Employment]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Rate Of Urban
Unemployment (CEPAL)
Rate Of Youth
Unemployment
Economically Active
Population (EAP) By
Gender (CELADE-ILO)
EAP Growth Rate By
Economic Activity
Sectors By Gender
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2026
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Salaries]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real Average Salaries
Wage-Earners Salaries
As GDP
Real Minimum Wage
Monthly Nominal
Minimum Wage In
National Currency To
Current Prices
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
…
2026
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Poverty/Income Distribution]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Poverty & Indigency
Coefficient Gap (CEPAL)
Coefficient Of Poverty
Gap (WB)
Income Distribution By
Quintiles By Geographic
Area (CEPAL)
Population In Poverty &
Ingency Conditions By
Geographic Area
Population Living Under
1 Dollar and Under 2
Dollars Per Day (WB)
GINI Concentration Rate
(CEPAL)
% Of Population Below
Minimum Nutrition (FAO)
Daily Kilocalorie
Consumption By Person
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2026
2027
2028
Social Indicators [Economy]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
2026
2027
2028
2026
2027
2028
GDP Per Inhabitant To
Market Constant Prices
Of Market, Annual
Variation Rates
CPI-Consumer Price
Index
Social Public Expenditure
Per Inhabitant
Social Public Expenditure
As % Total Public
Expenditure
Social Indicators [Technology]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Internet Users
Personal Computers In
Use
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
Social Indicators [Health/Nutrition/Population]
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
…
Population Growth Rate
GNI Per Capita
Adult Literacy
Life Expectancy At Birth
Child Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
Adult HIV Prevlaence
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2026
2027
2028