Download Slide 1

The Future of Human Capital in
Central Asia
Nargiza Juraboeva
2009
Human Capital ???
Human capital refers to
skills, education, health
and training of individuals.
Expenses that a Government makes
into the education and health are seen
as an investment into future
productivity . . .
Linked to human
development and is
measured based on
human development
indicators
. . . returns of
which are later
seen in wages
and input into
the economy.
Growth
Income
Productivity
Labour
market
Education
Health
We will talk about...
•
•
•
•
•
Central Asia in brief
The Soviet influence on human capital
Independence: what went wrong?
The current state of affairs
What is next?
The Soviet influence
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Universal access to education and health
Equal access to boys and girls
High quality of education
Innovation , science and research
Nearly universal employment
Women in decision making roles
Universal social security system
Independence: what went wrong?
• Reforms can be painful
– Inability of existing systems to adjust smoothly
– Time it takes to start new market oriented reforms
• Severe implications on citizens
–
–
–
–
Declining social indicators
Increase in poverty and inequality
Rising unemployment and rise of the informal sectors
Decreased investment to R&D and science
One of the recent books:
Central Asia’s Second Chance
- geopolitics
- power
- institutions
by Martha Brill Olcott
New challenges
•
•
•
•
•
Shift in the architecture of the labour market
Rise of the private sector (liberalization policies)
Rise of the informal sector (labour dislocations)
Decreasing quality of education (motivation)
Gap between the education system and new
market demands
• Increase in poverty and inequality
Negative impact on human capital
Real GDP growth (%)
30
20
10
Kazakhstan
0
1992
1995
2000
2003
2006
2007
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
-10
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
-20
-30
-40
GDP per capita
10000
9000
8000
Kazakhstan
7000
Kyrgyzstan
6000
Tajikistan
5000
Turkmenistan
4000
Uzbekistan
3000
2000
1000
0
1992
1995
2000
2003
2005
2006
Increasing disparities...
• KAZ: 18.2% population live below poverty line,
with 40% close to poverty line (2006)
• KYR: 35% in poverty and 6.6 in extreme
poverty (urban – 30%, rural – 51%)
• TAJ: 64% below poverty line, 2006
• TUR: about 21 % (ADB estimation), 2006
• UZB: 23,6% (urban-17,6%, rural-27,1%), 2007
Poverty rates (%) 2006-07
70
64
60
50
40
35
30
20
21
18.2
23.6
10
0
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Education
• For all Central Asian states the literacy rate is
95% and over
• Schooling is compulsory and gender equality is
maintained
• Enrolment is lower specialized colleges and
higher education  gender disparities are
more vivid (KAZ an exception)
• The number of early marriages has increased
– a barrier for girls to continue education
Public Expenditure on Education (% of GDP), 2005
9
8.5
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5.8
5.4
4.9
4.9
4.6
3.5
3.5
2.3
What is new?
• Identification of gaps and new programmes
• Expansion of education facilities
– Creation of specialised colleges
• Revised curricular at all levels
• Introduction of IT and resource centres
• Education programs for talented youth (study
abroad and exchange)
Despite certain achievements, the
existing system of educational
management has failed to promote
successful implementation of public
policy in the area of developing human
resources, which is oriented towards
current and prospective labour force
demands.
It has also failed to ensure an increased
level of education among the population.
Health
• Human capabilities and the level of
productivity have a direct link to health
• Anaemia is very high in the region  lower
work output
• Malnutrition – height and lack of vitamins
• Iodine deficiency  intellectual level
• Vitamin A  mortality and death (50-60% of
women and children in the region)
• Lack of access to quality basic health services
• Low awareness and early marriages
People that don’t have jobs...
Kazakhstan: 8.4%
in 2004, down from
13.5 % in 1999
Tajikistan:
unofficial
unemployment
rate is 33%
Uzbekistan:
officially at
4%, but others
estimate at 4,
5 times higher
Kyrgyzstan:
Officially 8.1 in 2005
I need a job...
30% of university
graduates in
Uzbekistan do not
work in the area of
specialization
20-24% of graduated
from construction
colleges cannot find
jobs, at a time when
there are lack of
specialists in other
KAZ: proportion of the
unemployed with only
secondary or primary
vocational education was 38.1%;
the proportion without any
vocational education was 49.7%
in 2002
What is for gender in
employment?
construction, transportation,
communications industries;
production and distribution
of electricity, gas, and water
Men
unemployment among
women in all age
groups is more than
1.5 times higher than
that of men
education, healthcare,
social services sectors
Salaries in these sectors are
approximately 2.5 times lower
than salaries in the
traditionally “male” sectors
Female
Where can I earn for living...
Russia?
Kazakhstan?
Foreign
markets?
Labour migration
• Total labour migrants (including daily
labour and shuttle trade, 2004):
– Around 600,000 for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan
– 1,209,814 people emigrated from Kazakhstan
between 1995 and 2005.
• Remittances:
– Up to 20% of GDP in Tajikistan (2005)
– 10% of GDP in Uzbekistan (2007)
– 27% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan (2007) = 1bln USD
What next?
• Commitment and political will
– Can we learn from mistakes?
– Can we close the gaps?
• Strengthen public administration reforms:
invest in institutions and capacity
development
• Strengthen the rule of law
Did we miss a chance to integrate
better...
Time is
ticking....
...and money is
flowing
What next?
• Continuous improvement in the education
sector
– Focus on quality (creativity, innovation, selfexpression)
– Spend resources wisely, M&E system
• Address the market demand and adjust supply
of graduates
– Analyze the market to learn what skills are missing
– Learn from others and take action
The region is rich in human resources. We
should not lose the momentum to enhance
the capacities of our people and help create
knowledge based economies. There is a need
for the right kind of reforms, that are
sustainable in the long term.