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Thinking Societies’ Relation to
Environment and Climate in Africa
Sustainability, Development, Migrations & Conflicts
Marco Zupi, CeSPI
Rome
Tuesday 21st April, 2009
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 1
The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking
• Need to shift from a merely environmental approach to an
ecological one: to talk in terms of human ecosystems and
in the human fittedness for ecosystems. Need of a more
integral relationship between socio-economic systems
and nature (J. Kovel, 2007).
• The environmental problems of sustainability on one hand
and the social, economic and political problems of
increasing poverty and inequality on the other are not
separate: when these factors collide we have a new scale
of problems.
• Not only from climate change to migration to conflicts to
migration, but also a combination of rapidly changing
social and economic conditions (and correlated
migrations and tensions/conflicts) and human driven
climate change will set off a chain reaction of devastating
crises.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 2
The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking
• Society and nature are not independent bodies
• In terms of refugees there are many drivers. Climate
change is one.
• But it is not correct to think as the only driver in the
absence of the other drivers in the system: mode of
production, export orientation, urban-biased policies,
food production, population growth, instability of
governances all affect local population stress and unsustainability.
• Climate change will not necessarily be the dominant
driver of mass migration, but an additional, important
stressing factor.
• A estimate of the number of migrants induced by climate
change is inevitably vague: all the stressing drivers and
feedbacks should be balanced, not just climate change.
• Need of a comprehensive approach to the non-linear and
complex interrelations between the various factors.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 3
Economic Performance up to 2007: robust and strong
Export growth (high commodity prices)
and rising investment main drivers
Exports the main driver of growth
US$ million
GDP Growth (%)
7
6
5
500,000
25
400,000
20
15
300,000
10
200,000
5
100,000
0
-5
0
4
% Growth
Since 2002 Africa growing in tandem
with global economic growth
-10
2000
3
2001
2002
2003
Export US$mill
2
2004
2005
2006
2007
Export Growth %
Rising Investment underpinning growth
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
World
Africa
Gross Domestic
Investment/GDP (%)
1
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: African Development Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
World
Africa
Slide 4
Growing Integration of Africa into the global economy
Decoupling more limited than
previously thought:
• private capital flows rising
•the share of trade in GDP
increasing
•regional debt markets are
expanding
•more investors interested in
African equities
Trade is a growing share of GDP
Remittances a major source of external finance
80.0
% Share of GDP
50
US$ Billion
40
30
20
10
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Sub-Saharan Africa
2004
2005
North Africa
2006
2007
Total Africa
2008e
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Trade as % of GDP
Source: African Development Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 5
Per capita net flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (current $)
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
External debt, net flows
Exports of goods, services and income
FDI, net inflows
Imports of goods, services and income
ODA and official aid
Workers' remittances
GDP (PPP)
GDP
1980
1850
1750
1650
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150
1050
950
850
750
650
550
450
350
250
150
50
-50
1850
1750
1650
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150
1050
950
850
750
650
550
450
350
250
150
50
-50
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 6
Per capita net flows to Northern Africa (current $)
External debt, net flows
Exports of goods, services and income
FDI, net inflows
Imports of goods, services and income
ODA and official aid
Workers' remittances
GDP
2100
1900
1700
2100
1900
1700
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-100
1995
100
1994
100
1993
300
1992
300
1991
500
1990
500
1989
700
1988
700
1987
900
1986
900
1985
1100
1984
1100
1983
1300
1982
1300
1981
1500
1980
1500
-100
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 7
Nevertheless...
35,0
Contribution to Global Warming (% of
total)
30,3
30,0
27,7
25,0
20,0
13,7
15,0
12,2
10,0
3,7
5,0
3,8
2,5
1,1
0,0
US
EU
Russia
Japan
South &
East Asia
Latin
America
Africa
Oceania
Source: US Dept. Of Energy
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 8
Carbon Emissions per person (tons)
6,00
5,60
5,00
4,00
2,72
3,00
2,40
2,40
2,00
1,00
1,00
0,53
0,25
0,24
India
Africa
0,00
US
EU
Russia
Japan
China
World
average
Source: World Resource Institute
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 9
Equatorial Guinea
Sao Tome and Principe
Angola
Mozambique
Chad
Botswana
Sudan
Sierra Leone
Tunisia
Cape Verde
Mauritius
Morocco
Tanzania
Mali
Ethiopia
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Algeria
Uganda
Nigeria
Namibia
Rwanda
Libya
Liberia
Senegal
South Africa
Mauritania
Zambia
Cameroon
Congo, Rep.
Guinea
Gambia, The
Benin
Lesotho
Kenya
Madagascar
Niger
Seychelles
Comoros
Swaziland
Malawi
Burundi
Central African Republic
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Togo
Gabon
Cote d'Ivoire
Eritrea
Guinea-Bissau
Somalia ??
Zimbabwe
19%
Heterogeneity
of GDP annual
growth rate
(percentage,
geometric mean
1997-2006)
Source: IFDA Report
-9 -8
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Growth 4% or higher
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Slide 10
FDI to Africa by destination ($ billion)
80
80
70
70
South Africa
60
60
Nigeria
50
50
Angola
40
Sudan
South Africa
30
Nigeria
20
Angola
10
Other African
countries
0
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Equatorial Guinea
Chad
Tanzania
Sudan
Equatorial Guinea
Other African
Tanzania
countries
40
30
20
10
0
1994-1999
2000-2005
Slide 11
The Consequences of Growing Integration of Africa
• Polarization, concentration, unequal distribution of
benefits and opportunities exacerbated traditional
patterns of human mobility.
• From traditional to additional new paths of human
mobility.
• 2.1% of African population have migrated out of the
continent (almost 16 millions of people).
• Women are 47.9% of immigrants and refugees are
17.4% (just 7.1% at global level).
• Between 9 and 28% of doctors have emigrated
• Persistent dichotomy of policies: from “urban bias” to
“back to land” policies.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 12
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest
proportion of intra-regional migrations in the world
And 80% of intra-African migration is cross-border
To the
OECD Area
4
(27%)
millions
0,5 millions
To the non-OECD
Rich economies
(3%)
10
millions
Within SSA
(69%)
Source: World Bank, UN
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 13
Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural
Population of More and Less Developed Regions,
1950-2030
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 14
Components of Migration
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 15
Some misleading dichotomous concepts
The contrast of Sending versus Receiving Countries (when most
countries both send and receive migrants)
Permanent versus Temporary Migration (when most “permanent”
migrants use to return to their countries or move on to other countries)
Brain Drain/Waste versus Brain Gain (when both are true, with net cost
and benefit spread in unequal ways)
High Skilled versus Low Skilled workers (when labor demand/need is
oriented to some specific segments of both of them)
Also traditional distinction between who is rural and urban is
increasingly difficult, especially with the expansion of semi-urban
areas where large proportions of populations rely on agricultural
activities to meet their livelihood needs
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 16
Youth and labor markets in Africa
• In Africa, 200 million people are in at the ages of 15 to 24 years
(i.e. youth), comprising more than 20% of the population
(UN2007).
• In 2005, 62% of Africa’s overall population fell below the age of 25.
The still very high fertility rate along with a demographic transition
that is slowly taking place are likely to increase the pressure
African countries face for job creation over the coming decades.
• Worldwide, and in Africa as well, the ratio of the youth-to-adult
unemployment rate equals three (ILO 2006), which clearly points
out the substantial difficulties of youth participation in the labor
market.
• Yet, the youth employment elasticity to GDP growth is low and only
a fifth of that observed for all workers (Kapsos 2005).
• And unemployment among youth is often higher than among
adults, but those out of the labor force are 2, 3 times higher on
average (56% vs 21%)
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 17
World Bank Survey-Based Harmonized
Indicators Program (SHIP): 13 cases
Tunisia
Marocco
Sahara
occidentale
Capo
Mauritania
Verde
Algeria
Libia
Egitto
Mali
Niger
Senegal
Guinea
Burkina
Faso
Eritrea
Ciad
Sudan
Gib uti
Nigeria
Etiopia
CostaGhana
Somalia
d’Avorio
Rep Cent Afr
Guinea-Bissa u
Benin Camerun
Sierra
Togo
Sao Tome e
Uganda
Leone
Congo
Kenya
P
rincipe
Gabon
Lib eria
Rwanda
Guinea
Burundi
Rep Dem Congo
Equatoriale
Ta nzania
Seychelles
Gamb ia
Angola
Zambia
Na mib ia
Zimbabwe
Botswana
• In Sub-Saharan Africa,
3 in 5 of the total
unemployed are youth
(ILO 2006).
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Malawi
Comoros
Mozambico
Mauritius
Mada ga sca r
Reunion
Swazila nd
Lesotho
Sudafric a
Slide 18
Incidence of poverty among young people
(< US$ 2 per day, in %)
Tunisia
Marocco
Algeria
Sahara
occidentale
Libia
Egitto
Capo
Mauritania
Verde
Mali
Niger
Senegal
Guinea
Burkina
Faso
46.5%
Ghana
Gamb ia
Guinea-Bissa u
68.0%Sierra
Costa
d’Avorio
Togo
Leone
Lib eria
92.9%
Eritrea
Ciad
Sudan
Nigeria
Etiopia
Rep Cent Afr
Benin Camerun
Sao Tome e
Congo
Principe
Gabon
66.5%
70.7%Gib uti
Somalia
93.8%
Uganda
49.1%Rep Dem Congo
85.7%
Guinea
Equatoriale
Angola
Kenya
Rwanda
54.4%
Burundi
Ta nzania
66.3%
Seychelles
• According to WB-SHIP, 86.3%
Mozambico
Zimbabwe
Na
mib
ia
Mauritius
in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mada ga sca r
Botswana
Reunion
on average 72% of the
81.7%
75.4% Swazila nd
youth population live
Lesotho
Sudafric a
with less than $2 a day
Zambia
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Malawi
Comoros
Slide 19
Tunisia
Distribution of youth by job status (in %)
Marocco
Algeria
Sahara
occidentale
Libia
Egitto
Capo
Mauritania
Verde
Mali
Niger
Senegal
Guinea
Burkina
Faso
45.6%
Ghana
Gamb ia
Guinea-Bissa u
7.1% Sierra
Out of the labor force
Costa
d’Avorio
Togo
Leone
Lib eria
71.4%
Eritrea
Ciad
Sudan
24.3%Gib uti
Nigeria
Etiopia
Somalia
Rep Cent Afr
Benin Camerun
Sao Tome e
Congo
Principe
Gabon
51.0%
81.4%
Uganda
50.1%Rep Dem Congo
29.3%
Guinea
Equatoriale
Angola
54.6%
Na mib ia
• According to WB-SHIP
(but Ethiopia and
Madagascar data based
on LF Surveys): mean is
55.3
(for adults is 23.4)
Marco Zupi
(CeSPI)
Zambia
Kenya
Rwanda
75.5%
Burundi
Ta nzania
78.4%
Malawi
Zimbabwe
Botswana
75.8%
Seychelles
Comoros
Mozambico
Mauritius
Mada ga sca r
Reunion
26.6%
Swazila nd
Lesotho
Sudafric a
Slide 20
Stylized facts of youth migration
• As a way to escape poverty, many youth look for better
opportunities by migrating (WB, 2008).
• Indeed, migration to urban areas is unavoidable and
even desirable as a way to improve allocation of human
resources, especially in land-scarce countries.
• While youth are more likely than older people to move
from rural to urban areas or to move across urban
areas, this increased youth migration has a wide impact.
• It increases the tension for jobs without necessarily
improving the job conditions of those left in rural areas.
• It impacts provision of public goods, education, utilities,
housing, and infrastructure.
• It affects demographic and skills composition in both
urban and rural areas.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 21
Stylized facts of youth migration
• Young male migrants are more likely to be unemployed
and out of the labor force than their non-migrant
counterparts (Garcia and Fares 2008).
• Urban residents are less likely to be employed than recent
rural-to-urban youth migrants (increased tension).
• However, recent migrants who are employed are more
likely to work in insecure jobs. In Ethiopia they are three
times more likely to be engaged in informal activities.
• In general: the youth at large comprise a vulnerable group
facing challenges in labor markets, but youth attached to
agriculture (non-migrants) and female youth face
particularly stronger challenges.
• Given that about 70% of the African youth population is
still in rural areas, and that urban areas have been very
slow to create job opportunities for most new job seekers,
there is a need for an integrated urb/rur approach.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 22
Tunisia
From traditional paths of human mobility
Morocco
Western
Sahara
Algeria
Libya
C
o ltiva zio
n i m ecrops
d io rie nta l
Middle
Eastern
Cape
(g ra no
, o rzo ,Green-pea,
p ise lli, uva )
(Corn,
Barley,
Mauritania
Verde
Nigerh e lia ne
C o Sahelian
ltiva Mali
zio n i sa
crops
Grapes)
Eritrea
Senegal
Chad
Sudan
Burkina
Djibouti
(sorgo
, m Millet)
ig lio )
(Sorghum,
Guinea
Faso
Egypt
Nigeria
Ethiopia
CoteGhana
Somalia
d’Ivoire
Cent Af r Re p
Guinea-Bissa u
Benin
Cameroon
Sierra
Togo
S
ao
T
ome
&
Uganda
Leone
Congo
Kenya
Principe
Gabon
Lib eria
Rwanda
Equatorial
Burundi
Congo Dem Rep
Guinea
Ta nzania
Seychelles
The Gamb ia
C o ltiva
zio ni crops
o c c id e nta li CEthiopian
o ltiva zion icrops
etio p ic h e
Western
(ig na m e,Cola)
c o la )
(c a(Coffee,
ffè, te ff)Teff)
(Igname,
agriculture and
stockbreederled
Angola
Zambia
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Comoros
Mozambique
Mauritius
Asian
crops
Mada
ga
sca
r
C o ltiva
zio
n
i
a
sia
tic
h
e
Botswana
Reunion
rice,
(ig(Igname,
na m e e Asian
riso a sia
tic o,
Swazila nd
bBanana)
a na neLesotho
)
Na mib ia
Source: J. Diamond
Malawi
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Slide 23
To contemporary corridors of human mobility
Mali
Eritre a
Sudan
Burkina
Faso
Ghana
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Cote
d’Ivoire
Ug and a
urban enclaves,
oil/diamonds
and mines-led
Congo Dem Rep
Tanzania
Theipali
main
corridors
I princ
corridoi
I princ
paesi
d i origine
Theipali
main
countries
of origin
I princ
paesi
d i destinazione
Theipali
main
countries
of
destination
Zimbabwe
Mozambiq ue
Lesotho
South Africa
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 24
Mortality Risks due to drought
Source: World Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 25
Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy
• Most of the poor in the world are living in unplanned towns.
• 40 of the 50 fastest growing cities are located in earthquake
zones. Another 10 m live under constant threat of floods (P.
Brown).
• Africa is less densely populated than Asia; nevertheless in
some polarized areas the high density in environmentally
threatened territories make them extremely vulnerable.
• Urban growth rates in Africa remain high, at nearly 5% on
aggregate, but cities simply cannot keep up with the
demands placed upon them (Simone, Abouhani, 2007).
• Cities are the places where Africans have been intensely
engaged in the conflicts. Many Africans are urban residents,
but they are not truly urbanized.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 26
Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy
• Across Africa, a new urban infrastructure is being built, but
what kind of city and processes are being constructed is
not clear:
• Roughly 75% of basic needs are provided informally in the
majority of African cities, and the processes of
informalization are expanding across sectors and domains.
• The prevailing common approach focused on transition from
informality to formal economy: a provocative approach is to
examine the ways in which such economies and activities
themselves might act as a platform for the creation of a very
different kind of sustainable urban configurations
• New agglomerations beyond rural-urban dichotomy
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 27
Exploring the basis for a new approach
• Against risk of UNROOTED and lost of identity and source
of tension and conflicts, migration should be an
opportunity, degree of freedom
• Against dichotomy of urban vs rural development, need of
territorial and social cohesion as the key approach
• Regional integration is a crucial institutional process to be
supported: (1) to overcome the jurisdictional gap (global
public goods such as environment and peace), (2) to
facilitate human mobility within regions, and (3) integrate
bioregions rather than dividing or polarizing them (4) to
promote redistribution of benefits of globalization, (5) to
promote peace.
• Promotion of sustainability and equity as leading drivers
of policies: new frontier of green-technological change,
more equal and sustainable distribution and location of
factors of production (manpower, capital, land, cities…)
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 28