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FINANCIAL SECTORS FOR
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
Idar Kreutzer, CEO, Finance Norway
NFU Conference May 28 2015
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Economic Outlook
•
USA
– Increased growth
– QE-program finished last year
– First interest rate hike getting
closer
•
Euro area
– Fragile growth, high
unemployment rate, low inflation
– Quantitative easing – 60 bn. Euro
per month until September 2016
– Grexit?
•
China
– Reduced growth
– Rebalancing the economy
– Weak housing market, high
corporate debt and uncertainty in
the credit markets causes
concern
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Annual Growth in GDP and Projections. Percentage
Source: IMF
The financial sector’s contribution to
society
Value added per hour worked. 2005 prices. 1990-2013
• Credit makes other
sectors more productive
• Provides risk relief
• Large employer and
taxpayer
• Highly compentent work
force and high level of
productivity
• Norwegian welfare and
wage levels require high
level of productivity
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1200
12000
1000
10000
800
8000
600
6000
400
4000
200
Finansierings- og
forsikringsvirksomhet
Fiske, fangst og
akvakultur
Utenriks sjøfart
Utvinnning av råolje
og naturgass, inkl.
tjenester (høyre akse)
2000
0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Statistisk sentralbyrå
Tax payment for some sectors. Sum 2007-2012. Mill NOK
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Bygg og anlegg
Industri
Varehandel mv.
Finansiering og
forsikring
Source: Statistisk sentralbyrå
The financial sector –
A productive sector with unused potential
Growth in productivity and employment Norwegian mainland industries, 1990–2010
(deviations from the average for industries)
300 %
Employment growth
250 %
200 %
150 %
100 %
50 %
Information and communications
0%
-100 %
-50 %
0%
50 %
100 %
150 %
200 %
Retail etc
-50 %
Finance and insurance business
-100 %
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Source: Victor Norman, NHH
Growth in productivity
Tillit er grunnsteinen for en
velfungerende finansnæring
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Sustainable growth
• New EU Commission:
Job creation
• Policy framework for
financial services:
– Innovation friendly
– Fight fraud, protect consumers
– Financial stability
• Is there a correlation
between goals and
instruments?
Need
calibration
Need
forfor
calibration
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