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Accelerating Change, the LUI, Avatars, and
Personality Capture: The Symbiotic Age
John Smart
Accelerating Change 2004
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
(accelerating.org/slides.html)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Extraordinary Present
“There has never been a time more pregnant
with possibilities.” — Gail Carr Feldman
Quiet happiness, careful confidence, and flow (see
Flow, by Csikszentmihalyi) are the natural state of the
human animal.
Our accelerating world adds regular surprise to the mix.
If you aren’t surprised (occasionally even astonished) at
least once a day, perhaps you aren’t looking closely
enough.
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© 2004 Accelerating.org
The Future is Now
“You will never again be as good looking as you are today.”
“Things will never again be as slow or simple as they are today.”
— You (in front of the mirror every morning).
More than ever, the Future is Now. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.
— William Gibson (paraphrased)
We have two options: Future Shock, or Future Shaping.
Never has the lever of technology been so powerful.
Never have we had so much impact, and potential for impact.
We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A
balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on
persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to
avoid both doomsaying and a paralyzing adherence to the status quo.
— David Brin (paraphrased)
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Tip: Great input leads to great output. Do you have a weekly
reading and writing period? Several learning and doing communities?
How global is your thinking and action?
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Institute for the Study of
Accelerating Change
Los Angeles
Palo Alto

ISAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of scientists,
technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators,
analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and
dissecting accelerating change.

We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to
discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent
capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future,
and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary
choices.

Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity,
and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems,
increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy
of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Replication & Variation
“Natural Selection”
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Complex Environmental Interaction
The Left and Right Hands of
“Evolutionary Development”
Left Hand
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New Computational Phase Space Opening
Selection & Convergence
“Convergent Selection”
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Right Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins
(Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)
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The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST
compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.
Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, certain skinks) still
have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.
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© 2004 Accelerating.org
How Many Wheels are
Developmentally Optimal?
Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
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© 2004 Accelerating.org
Something Curious Is Going On
Unexplained.
(Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
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© 2004 Accelerating.org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
“The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED
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From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED
Carl Sagan’s
“Cosmic
Calendar”
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)
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Each month
is roughly 1
billion years.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change?
Big Bang Singularity
50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
50 yrs ago: Machina silico
100,000 yrs: Matter
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies
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Developmental Singularity?
8B yrs: Earth
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ):
A Universal Moore’s Law Curve
Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate
Ф
(ergs/second/gram)
time
Galaxies
Stars
Planets (Early)
Plants
Animals/Genetics
Brains (Human)
Culture (Human)
Int. Comb. Engines
Jets
Pentium Chips
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0.5
2 (“counterintuitive”)
75
900
20,000(10^4)
150,000(10^5)
500,000(10^5)
(10^6)
(10^8)
(10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Saturation: A Biological Lesson
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing
Curious Facts:
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
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Result: No apparent limits to the acceleration of local intelligence,
interdependence, and immunity in new substrates over time.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding the Lever of ICT
"Give me a lever, a fulcrum,
and place to stand and I
will move the world."
Archimedes of Syracuse
(287-212 BC), quoted by
Pappus of Alexandria,
Synagoge, c. 340 AD
“The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of
Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative
democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814)
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The lever of accelerating information and communications
technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics
(in inner space) increasingly moves the world.
(Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Smart’s Laws of Technology
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
(Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development).
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of
technological evolutionary development.
(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency,
P2P as a proprietary or open source development)
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity,
and with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
(Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).
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Many Accelerations are Underwhelming
Some Modest Exponentials:
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Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500%
over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr)
Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11%
over 25 years.
Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP
is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002).
Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100%
(4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002)
Scientific publications have increased 40% over 13
years (1988-2001).
BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Revisit 1929
Business Week’s First Edition:

IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.”

PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered
factories in San Francisco.
Could we have predicted that one of these technologies
would sustain a relentless, profound, accelerating
transformation while another would, on the surface,
appear largely unchanged?
Can we predict this now?
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Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)
Materials Science (“Substrates”)
 Synthetic Materials
 Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948)
 Microprocessor
 Fiber Optics
 Lasers and Optoelectronics
 Wired and Wireless Networks
 Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots
 Exotic Condensed Matter
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BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
“The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain)
Systems and Software
 Television (1940’s)
 Mainframes (1950’s)
 Minicomputers (1970’s)
 Personal Computers (1980’s)
 Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s)
 Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s)
 Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s)
 Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical
Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS,
Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP…
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BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”)
 Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise
missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered
submarines... (major open problems (security))
Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”)
 Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management,
process automation, big-box retailing, robotics…
(major open problems (rich-poor divide))
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BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”)
 Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA,
EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights,
zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law
reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law,
feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil
unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive
changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.)
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BusinessWeek, 75th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004
“The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain)
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Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”)
 Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals,
transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics,
microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial
chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”)
Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”)
 Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards
(Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s),
mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit…
Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”)
 Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping
 Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines,
hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (hidden ©change)”)
2004 Accelerating.org
ICT: A 2030 Vision
Entertain a Radical Proposition: “Human-ICT” computational
domains are saturating. “Microcosm” ICT is not.
(Human pop. flatlines in 2050 (“First World effect”). 2nd order deriv.
of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues.)
Defense, Security, Space, Finance, Social, Legal, Agrotech,
Biotech, Health Care, Finance, Transportation, Energy and
Envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030 (with major ICT
extensions).
We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global,
not local. Our generation’s theme:
“First World Saturating, Third World Uplifting.”
Condensed Matter Physics, the Nanoworld, and Cosmology have
continued to surprise us.
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ICT (Sensors, Storage, Communication, Connectivity, Simulation,
Interface) now look, and feel, very different.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Physical Space:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
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“Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition”
"No one can deny that
a world network of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven
at ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of
us. With every day that
passes it becomes a little
more impossible for us
to act or think otherwise
than collectively."
—Tielhard de Chardin
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Physical Space:
A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”)
David Brin,
The Transparent Society, 1998
Hitachi’s mu-chip:
RFID for paper currency
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© 2004 Accelerating.org
Physical Space:
Is Biotech a Saturated Substrate?
21st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t
accelerate biological complexity (seems likely now).
– Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions
– “Most complex structure in the known universe”
Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions
– In-group ethics, body image, personal identity
We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans”
– No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so.
– Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead.
Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
– Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.”
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Virtual Space:
Is Inner Space the Final Frontier?
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.
Large scale structures in spacetime are:
•
•
•
•
A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
Relatively computationally simple and tractable (transparent)
Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence?
versus
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Non-Autonomous ISS
Autonomous Human Brain
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Interface:
Oil Refinery (A Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)
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Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,
each needing only a high school education.
The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Interface:
Understanding Process Automation
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Perhaps 80-90% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(“tech we tend”).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in
Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
“7/8 comes from technical progess.”
Human contribution (10-20%) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and grants
(“taxing the machines”) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings.
Termite Mound
© 2004 Accelerating.org
An ICT Attractor:
The Linguistic User Interface
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Google’s cache (2000, % non-novel)
Watch Windows 2004 become
Conversations 2020…
Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Personality Capture
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
When you die in 2099, your digital you will be
99% you. Will this feel like death, or growth?
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your consciousness between
your electronic and biological components, the
encapsulation and transcendence of the biological
will feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
© 2004 Accelerating.org
Action Items
1. Sign up for free Tech Tidbits and Accelerating
Times newsletters at Accelerating.org
2. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2005): IA and AI
October 28-30 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA
3. Send feedback to [email protected]
Thank You.
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