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Real Estate Market in the Czech Republic and EU Region under Influence of World Financial Crisis Lubos Smutka, Ph.D. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Faculty of Economics and Management Department of Economics Brief introduction about the Czech Republic and Europe European Union EU in brief Founded in 1957 – 6 member states 27 member countries 22 official languages Organization “sue generis” a hybrid intergovernmental and supranational organization first supranational law system organization lower trade barriers adopt a common currency move toward convergence of living standards. More than 4.3 mil. sq km (4,324,782 sq km) Population - 499,673,300 Population growth rate – 0.16 % EU – basic characteristics • • • • • • • • • • • Area: 4,324,782 sq km Population: 491,582,852 (July 2009 est.) Population growth rate: 0.108% (2009 est.) Net migration rate: 1.46 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2009 est.) Life expectancy at birth: 78.67 years GDP (purchasing power parity): $14.91 trillion (2008) GDP (official exchange rate): $18.14 trillion (2008 est.) GDP - real growth rate: 0.8% (2008 est.) GDP - per capita (PPP): $33,700 (2008 est.) Unemployment rate: 7.4% (2008 est.) Inflation rate (consumer prices): 3.5% (2008 est.) The Czech Republic Czech Republic • The Czech Republic was born on January 1, 1993, when the Czechoslovak Federal Republic split into two independent states, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Since May, 2004, the Czech Republic has been a member of the European Union. However, the country has not adopted the euro yet and still uses its national currency, the Czech koruna. Geography and location The Czech Republic Peaceful, Friendly, Tolerant, Patient, Foxy, Selfish, Calm and confident Others countries’ opinions – for example Bulgarian opinion Basic information Area km2 78 886 Inhabitants 10,3 mil. Per km2 131 Unemployment 8,6 % GDP/cap USD 20 700 (60% of EU) Rate of inflation 2,1% Average gross salary 1 350 USD/cap/month GDP - Share of Agriculture 2,5 % Administrative structure • 7 regions + Capital • 6249 sub-regions Geography • Area: • total: 78,866 sq km land: 77,276 sq km water: 1,590 sq km • Land use: • arable land: 38.82% permanent crops: 3% other: 58.18% (2005) Population: 10,220,911 (July 2008 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 13.8% (male 723,521/female 684,786) 15-64 years: 71.2% (male 3,653,679/female 3,619,872) 65 years and over: 15.1% (male 604,419/female 934,634) (2008 est.) Population growth rate: -0.082% (2008 est.) Government Government • Capital: Prague - Chief of state: President Vaclav KLAUS (since 7 March 2003) - Head of government: Prime Minister Jan Fischer; - Government consists of 18 members - Parliament consists of the Senate (81 seats; members are elected by popular vote to serve six-year terms; onethird elected every two years) and the Chamber of Deputies (200 seats; members are elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms) The Czech Republic is a member of the following organizations and institutions. • ACCT (observer), Australia Group, BIS, BSEC (observer), CE, CEI, CERN, EAPC, EBRD, EIB, ESA (cooperating state), EU, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC, ICCt (signatory), ICRM, IDA, IEA, IFC, IFRCS, ILO, IMF, IMO, IMSO, Interpol, IOC, IOM, IPU, ISO, ITSO, ITU, ITUC, MIGA, NAM (guest), NATO, NEA, NSG, OAS (observer), OECD, OIF (observer), OPCW, OSCE, PCA, Schengen Convention, UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNMEE, UNMIL, UNOMIG, UNWTO, UPU, WCL, WCO, WEU (associate), WFTU, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO, ZC National Economy - GDP • $175.3 billion (2007) • $251 billion (2007) 6.6% (2007 est.) 3% (2008 est.) • GDP - per capita (PPP): $25,900 (2008 est.) Inflation rate (consumer prices): 6.3% (2008) $24,500 (2007) • 2.9% (2007 est.) • • • GDP (official exchange rate): $217.1 billion (2008 est.) GDP (purchasing power parity): $265.2 billion (2008 est.) • GDP - real growth rate: GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 2.7% agriculture: 2.3% industry: 38.7% industry: 37.6% services: 58.6% (2007 est.) services: 60.1% (2008 est.) National Economy – Labour Forces • 5.36 million (2007 est.) • Unemployment rate: 6.6% (2007 est.) • 5.4% (2008) • 8% (2009) • Labour force - by occupation: – agriculture: 3.6% – industry: 40.2% – services: 56.2% (2007) National Economy • Budget: revenues: $72.1 billion expenditures: $74.98 billion (2007) revenues: $93.42 billion expenditures: $96.09 billion (2008 est.) • Public debt: 26.8% of GDP (2008 est.) 26% of GDP (2007) Current account balance: Debt - external: -$4.534 billion (2007) -$6.642 billion (2008 est.) $74.7 billion (31 December 2007) $80.43 billion (31 December 2008) Foreign trade • Exports: $122.3 billion f.o.b. (2007) $145.7 billion (2008 est.) - machinery and transport equipment 52%, - raw materials and fuel 9%, - chemicals 5% Germany 30.6%, Slovakia 9.2%, Poland 6.5%, France 5.3%, UK 4.8%, Italy 4.6%, Austria 4.7% (2008) • Imports: $116.6 billion f.o.b. (2007) $139.4 billion (2008 est.) - machinery and transport equipment 46%, - raw materials and fuels 15%, - chemicals 10% Germany 30.3%, Netherlands 5.6%, Slovakia 6.6%, Poland 6.4%, China 4.9%, Austria 5.2%, Russia 6.2%, Italy 4.1%, France 4.1% (2008) Residential real estate property – family houses and apartments • Czech Republic • Europe Inter annual growth of family houses prices Region 2005 2006 2007 12,2% 2008 Czech republic 2,20% 7,0% 6,5% Praha -3,20% 9,90% 7,60% Středočeský kraj 1,60% 6,00% 14,40% 8,00% Jihočeský kraj 5,80% 5,80% 11,30% 3,10% Plzeňský kraj -2,50% 7,50% 10,60% 8,10% Karlovarský kraj 5,00% 10,40% 12,50% 1,30% Ústecký kraj 1,00% 9,60% 10,80% 9,80% Liberecký kraj 10,60% 6,00% 10,00% 1,20% 1,30% Královéhradecký kraj 4,90% 6,10% 13,10% 3,80% Pardubický kraj 5,50% 5,60% 12,60% 3,20% Kraj Vysočina 3,10% 6,80% 8,80% Jihomoravský kraj 3,10% 7,20% 14,90% 7,50% Olomoucký kraj 2,90% 11,20% 11,90% 8,30% Zlínský kraj 5,20% 7,20% 10,30% 12,50% 7,60% Moravskoslezský kraj 2,50% 4,60% 21,20% 6,80% Development of Residential Real Estate Property in Selected Developed Countries (in real prices) The characteristic of main cycles in residential real estates property prices in selected developed countries in period Country The main period of price growth Duration (number of quarters) The main period of price slowdown Duration (number of quarters) USA 1995Q1-2005Q2: +52,7 % 41 - - Japan 1977Q3-1991Q1: +77,6 % 54 1991Q1-2005Q1: -40,7 % 56 Germany 1976Q2-1981Q2: +15,7 % 20 1994Q2-2004Q4: -20,5 % 42 France 1997Q1-2005Q1: + 74,3 % 32 1981Q1-1984Q3: -18,1 % 14 Italy 1970Q1-1981Q1: + 98,0 % 44 1981Q1-1986Q2: -35,3 % 21 Canada 1985Q1-1989Q1: +66,5 % 25 1981Q1-1985Q1: -20,9 % 16 UK 1995Q4-2005Q2: +137,4 % 38 1973Q3-1977Q3: -33,7 % 16 Australia 1996Q1-2004Q1: + 84,7 % 32 - - Denmark 1993Q2-2004Q3: +93,4 % 45 1979Q2-1982Q4: -36,8 % 14 Finland 1979Q1-1989Q1: +111,8 % 40 1989Q1-1993Q2: -49,7 % 17 South Korea 1987Q3-1991Q2: +33,5 % 15 1991Q1-2001Q1: -47,5 % 39 Ireland 1992Q3-2005Q1: +242,7 % 50 1981Q3-1987Q2: -27,1 % 23 Netherlands 1985Q3-2005Q1: +183,1 % 78 1978Q2-1985Q3: -50,4 % 29 New Zealand 1970Q1-1974Q3: + 62,7 % 18 1974Q3-1980Q4: -37,8 % 25 Norway 1993Q1-2005Q2: +136,3 % 49 1986Q4-1993Q1: -40,6 % 25 Spain 1996Q4-2004Q4: +114,2 % 32 1978Q2-1986Q1: -32,2 % 31 Sweden 1996Q2-2005Q2: +80,1 % 36 1979Q3-1986Q1: -37,9 % 26 Switzerland 1976Q3-1989Q4: +73,5 % 53 1989Q4-2000Q1: -40,7 % 41 Basic trends in European real estate market in 2008/2009 • The year 2007 – the enormous growth of real estate property prices • The year 2008 – the fall of real estate property prices • Financial crisis – the economic slowdown in EUROPE is accompanied by the slowdown of real estate property prices • The growth of loan rates, • Banks are more strict, • It is much more difficult to get credit or loan, • The crisis affected the whole European property market • The impact of crisis on individual European countries was different, • The most affected countries were UK, Ireland and Spain (countries with really significant price bubble) • All European countries were affected by the crisis – because of links among individual countries Ireland • Prices of buildings started to fall in 2007 • In July 2008 prices felt by more than 12% and they reached the level of the year 2005 – the price fall was possible to see especially in case of Dublin • The average time period for trade transaction increased significantly • The end of 2008 – prices decreased in all sectors of real estate property market (slowdown 15 – 50%). • The number of transaction decreased significantly – by about 5090% • In Dublin prices of real estates decreased by more than 40% during the year 2008 (in comparison with the period 2006-2007) • The market with apartments for rent was slowly growing, but the value of rent decreased by about 10% UK • In 2007 – first problems on real estate market • Bank changed their loan policy • Real estate property prices started to decrease and investors started to lose their trust in real estate market as a store of value • Just in 2008 real estate market lost about 16% of its value from the year 2007 (reasons: credit conditions, price slowdown and anticipation) • Investors from US left British market. The result of it was decrease of provided mortgages and fall of property market (mainly apartments) • Developers had to decrease their prices of new constructions, because of property market slowdown Spain • The year 2007 is possible to describe as a „terrible year of Spanish real estate market“, • Spanish market is not transparent at all, therefore it is very difficult to estimate exactly the impact of crisis on Spanish real estate market, • According to CG-COAPI – the biggest real estate organization on Spanish market – the inter annual slowdown of market was about 40% in case of buildings and 30% in case of apartments, • The number of mortgages decreased by more than 60% • The incomes of private owners and real estate agencies decreased by about 60% 2008-2009 • The current situation increased interest of people to rent flats and the average value of rent for flat increased by about 4%. Denmark • Denmark was affected by the crisis later than other European countries. • During the period 2008/2009 prices of real estate property decreased by 6%, • Danish government pointed out current property crisis as a potentional threat, and probably the most dangerous one, for Danish economy, • On the other hand rental market is constantly growing and just in 2008 – the average value of rental fee increased by about 3%. Francie • The year 2008 – the decrease of purchasing power of households, extreme impact of US crisis on French bank system, the slowdown of bank system liquidity, the slowdown of number of mortgages provided, • Prices of buildings and houses decreased by about 5%, prices of apartments decreased by 1,2%, real estate market was affected just only a little bit, • Rental market increased by 3%, but it is possible to expect the slowdown of rents for flats especially in big cities. The Netherlands • Dutch real estate property market had to face to impact of financial crisis at the end of 2008 – it means later than it was in case the majority of EU members, • The number of transaction decreased by more than 80%, • The changes in prices were only minimum, but people stopped to sell and buy and both buyers and sellers waited for another development (during the last quarter of 2008 the number of houses sold decreased by 27%), • The crisis influenced mainly transactions in value between 350 ths. – 900 ths. EURO), • There are existing huge differences between individual Dutch regions, especially property market in Amsterdam is very stable, • Rental market was not affected at all, and the average value of rent for flat increased during the year 2008 by 1,6%. Italy • In 2008, the real estate market was affected by minimum way, • Real estate property market changed its prices by only 5-10%, • Rental market was affected by the crisis especially in case of rural areas, in urban areas rental fee decreased by only 5-7%, • Demand for rental housing is constantly increasing, but demand for new apartments stagnates, • The value of average rental fee is slowly increasing. Scandinavian countries • Except for Denmark, the impact of financial crisis on Scandinavian countries was very limited, • Individual countries had to face to real estate market crisis sometimes at the end of 2008, • Real estate property prices started to decrease during the last three months of 2008. In Finland and Sweden the slowdown of real estate property market was about 3-4%. Germany • German real estate market is very specific (rent regulation, lower share of apartments in private ownership in comparison with the rest of EU), • In past years the growth of German market was not so progressive like it was in case of before mentioned countries, • Financial crisis did not affect German market so much like it was in some other countries, • The main problem of German real estate market is discussion about rent regulation and about the growth of rental fee Selected Middle and East European Countries • The crisis influenced especially Baltic countries, • Latvia, Estonia (during 2004-2006 prices of apartments increased more than two times, in 2007 the slowdown of real estate property market was recorded, in 2008 market collapsed (50% slowdown). • Lithuania – the impact of crisis is limited, • Poland – mild slowdown of real estate property market, number of new projects decreased, rental market is growing, • Russia – after several years of prosperity, the real estate property market recorded significant slowdown, • Czech Republic – in 2008 real estate property market was not affected by financial crisis, problems started since the beginning of 2009. After several years of permanent growth of prices, the Czech Republic has to face market prices slowdown by about 10%, • Hungary – in 2008 stable development trend, in 2009 real estate property prices decreased , • Austria – in 2008 real estate property and rental markets changed only a little bit. Czech real estate property market – apartments and family houses Types of taxes applied in CR Individual Income Tax flat : 15% Corporate Income Tax 21% VAT 9% food and services and 19% other goods Property tax Building tax less than 0,1% Ground tax less than 0,1% Tax from Sale of Real Estate:3% Transaction Costs Who Pays? Legal Fees 1% (+ 19% VAT) buyer Registration Fees 0.01% - 0.02% buyer Agent's Fee 2.5% - 5% buyer Transfer Tax 3% seller Costs paid by buyer 3.7% - 6.21% Costs paid by seller 3% ROUNDTRIP TRANSACTION COSTS 6.7% - 9.21% See Footnotes Source: Global Property Guide How difficult is the property purchase process in Czech Republic? • The following can buy real estate without any restriction: - Czech citizens -Legal entities headquartered in the Czech Republic -Foreigners with a permanent residence permit for the CR - People granted asylum in the CR Square Metre Prices - Czech Republic Compared to Continent • Monaco€35,658 France€9,961 Greece€6,048 Luxembourg€5,376 Andorra€4,140 Slovak Rep.€3,597 Romania€3,484 Slovenia€2,926 Estonia€2,841 Cyprus€2,513 Portugal€2,225 Turkey€1,390 UK€14,421 Switzerland€7,138 Italy€5,541 Montenegro€4,759 Czech Rep.€4,015 Netherlands€3,579 Poland€3,348 Germany€2,882 Ukraine€2,807 Croatia€2,474 Bulgaria€2,214 Moldova€1,013 Russia€11,851 Finland€6,468 Ireland€5,483 Denmark€4,607 Spain€3,932 Lithuania€3,539 Austria€3,000 Latvia€2,860 Malta€2,646 Belgium€2,465 Hungary€1,683 Macedonia€1,003 Gross Rental Yields - Czech Republic Compared to Continent Moldova14.17% Hungary8.11% Belgium5.78% Turkey5.48% Italy5.04% Latvia4.40% Estonia4.36% France3.85% Finland3.69% Russia3.45% Greece2.71% Macedonia10.11% Netherlands6.63% Romania5.50% Germany5.12% Switzerland4.80% Austria4.40% Slovak Rep.4.28% Spain3.81% Luxembourg3.63% Cyprus3.45% Andorra2.19% Ukraine9.09% Poland5.83% Slovenia5.49% Croatia5.07% Bulgaria4.62% Denmark4.36% Czech Rep.3.89% Lithuania3.70% UK3.48% Malta2.94% Monaco1.48% The development of houses and apartments number in ths. The structure of apartments in the Czech Republic according to age Czech Republic Development of selected real estate property prices in the CR The number of new building permissions and estimative price of buildings Czech Republic New apartments development trend in the CR Flats under the construction Finished flats The number of finished apartments in individual regions in the CR Average prices for one square meter development in the Czech Republic in period 2007-2008 Average prices for one square meter development – in dependence on the size of the flat The relationship between size of apartment and price for one square meter Average price of apartment in dependence on ownership and construction material Average price for one square meter of older apartment in private ownership – differences among individual regions Average value of one month rent for apartment – differences among regions Differences in open market rents, prices and salaries among individual regions in the Czech Republic Czech Republic and Crisis • The Czech Republic is small, at only 78,864 sq. km. with a population of 10.2 million. After rising by an average of 6.6% annually from 2005 to 2007, GDP growth in the Czech Republic slowed to 4.4% in 2008. The slowdown was primarily due to falling exports and weaker domestic demand. In Q3 2008, exports were down 10.7% y-o-y. • Almost 85% of the country’s exports go to the EU; around 30% to Germany which is now in recession. Several companies, particularly in the financial, banking and manufacturing sectors have started to lay-off workers. • In January 2009, over 45,000 people lost their jobs. This pushed unemployment to 6.8%, up from 4.3% in Q3 2008, the lowest level in a decade. Unemployment is expected to reach 7.5% in 2009 and 8.5% in 2010. Czech Republic – GDP development 2009 – negative development trend -5% Mortgages in the CR Mortgages 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 /6 total value in billion CZK 154 226 327 470 584 623 average value in million CZK 1.27 1.41 1.5 1.71 1.77 1.68 loan rate in % 4.74 5.08 4.36 5.34 5.69 5.55 Perspectives for 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 3.56 3.69 5.42 0.24 2007 12.20 8.79 4.11 3.20 2006 2.17 2.51 2.07 6.74 2005 0.50 0.51 0.50 1.20 % change over a quarter Source: Czech Statistical Office Apartments • The growth of individual consumption together with the growth of individual incomes were the main engines of residential market growth in past years, • Since 2001 the residential buildings and apartments represented the most profitable sector in area of real estate property market, • Residential market is very sensitive (consumers preferences, social climate, prices, inflation, mortgages and so on), • The current slowdown of real estate property market is possible to explain through the following factors – – – – – – – increase of loan interests financial crisis, low position of banking sector, economy slowdown, people’s anticipation, drop in domestic and foreign demand, constantly increasing value of Czech currency Industrial buildings • Industrial buildings segment was constantly growing during the last ten years. • The total area of industrial buildings and buildings for logistic purposes represents about 3 millions square meters, • Made to measure projects had the main position on the market, • The level of demand has been constantly decreasing, • The current level of occupation of industrial areas is about 80% • The growth of demand was recorded only in case of those projects which size is under the 1500 m2, • The majority of new industrial buildings is possible to find close to the main agglomerations and European corridors. Offices • Prague has the dominant position, • The share of Prague is about 70% - speaking about new projects, • It is expected that till the end of 2009 the total area of offices just in Prague will be more than three millions square meters, • The value of offices in Prague is constantly decreasing – the main reason is too high growth rate of supply in comparison with growth rate of demand – market is almost saturated. Conclusion in CZK/m2 Praha Kladno Mladá Boleslav Liberec Jablonec nad Nisou Ústí nad Labem Most Děčín Zlín Kroměžíž Brno Znojmo Ostrava Havířov Karlovy Vary Plzeň New apartments 2008 2009 Change slowdown 565000 60500 30% 41300 33350 slowdown 20% slowdown by 38400 33250 15% slowdown by 37000 33300 10% Old apartments 2008 2009 Change slowdown -15% / 45200 43000 20% 29600 24500 slowdown 15% 32000 30500 slowdown 10% 19400 20000 growth +3% 24000 17500 slowdown 20% 13900 14700 growth 6% oscilation +25% / 9000 9000 25% 17000 15500 slowdown 10% 26500 22500 slowdown 15% 21000 19000 slowdown 10% 33150 30000 slowdown 10% xxx xxx xxx xxx 37000 31500 slowdown 15% 29000 28000 slowdown 4% 46400 40600 slowdown 12% 29000 27500 slowdown 5% 27150 22600 slowdown 17% xxx xxx 42600 40900 slowdown 39200 36000 slowdown 10% slowdown 5% České Budějovice 32000 28000 10% slowdown 5%Tábor 30000 28000 10% Jihlava 34000 31300 slowdown 10% Třebíč 26000 24000 slowdown 8% 27500 24450 slowdown 10-25% 26400 24500 slowdown 15-20% 20000 19400 15000 18300 28000 Panel building Change slowdown -10% stagnation slowdown -25% / 35% slowdown -25% / 30% slowdown 20% stagnation slowdown -10% stagnation slowdown -30% slowdown -33% stagantion slowdown -10% / 19000 slowdown 5% 15% 16650 slowdown 15% - 25% slowdown 20% 13500 slowdown 10% - 30% slowdown 20% 17400 slowdown stagnation 23000 slowdown 20% slowdown 20% Land Rent of apartments Change Change slowdown by 20% growth stagnation stagnation stagnation stagnation stagnation stagnation stagnation stagnation growth stagnation stagnationm stagnation stagnation stagantion slowdown stagnation growth 10% stagnation stagnation slowdown stagantion stagnation stagnation growth rapid growth slowdown 5-10% growth slowdown 5-15% stagnation slowdown 23000 21700 slowdown 5% slowdown 15% - 20% stagnation slowdown 18800 17500 slowdown 10% 24300 22600 slowdown 7% 18000 16000 slowdown 12% slowdown 15% - 20% mild growth slowdown 7% stagnation slowdown 7% / 15% stagnation stagnation growth mild growth Conclusion - continuation Hradec Králové Trutnov Olomouc Přerov slowdown 10%39300 35000 30% 32000 30000 slowdown 7% slowdown 12%42400 37600 35% xxx xxx 37500 33350 slowdown 10% 27000 25000 slowdown 10% Average values 35620 32284 slowdown 10% Pardubice Chrudim 28500 25700 slowdown 10% 25000 23000 slowdown 10% slowdown 25% slowdown 20% 30300 21500 26900 19000 27650 slowdown 10% 20500 slowdown 5% 24500 slowdown 10% 17000 slowdown 10% slowdown 25% slowdown 20% slowdown 35% slowdown 35% 23433 21167 slowdown 10% slowdown 25% mild slowdown stagnation oscilation -15% / +15% stagnation stagnation oscilation -10% / +10% slowdown 5% stagnation stagnation slowdown 5%-10% slowdown 15% growth 5% stagnation - mild stagnation growth Thank you very much for your attention Lubos Smutka, Ph.D. Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Faculty of Economics and Management Department of Economics [email protected]