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Encouraging entrepreneurs: Slovak story Martin Vlachynsky Institute of Economic and Social Studies (INESS) Independence: 1993 EU: 2004 Eurozone: 2009 49 035 km2 5 400 000 inhabitants GDP (2012) 71,4 billion EUR 76% of EU28 per capita GDP average Exports to GDP: 90% (Among highest in the world) Industry: • Automotive (largest per capita car producer in the world) • Electronics industry • Metallurgy 10.5 4.4 5.8 6.7 5.1 4.8 -6.9 -4.9 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.6 5.8 5.2 6.5 8.3 % GDP growth 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Unemployment 25.0 20.0 18.6 19.2 18.5 17.4 18.1 16.2 15.0 13.7 12.7 16.2 14.4 13.1 11.3 11.8 13.3 12.5 13.6 14.0 12.1 11.0 9.6 10.0 5.0 0.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 52.4 43.4 41 35.6 27.9 29.6 30.5 42.4 41.5 34.2 34.5 33.7 22.1 31.1 43.4 48.9 50.3 47.8 57.2 % PUBLIC DEBT 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Phase 1 (1993-1998) “A black hole in the heart of Europe” • Solid Growth • High, but stabilized unemployment BUT • Fiscal expansion (average 6% budget deficit) • Lack of foreign capital (average FDI only 1,6% of GDP) • Deteriorating health industries • Deteriorating banking system (“free” cash source), 6 banks bankrupted • Authoritative regime- exclusion from western structures (excluded from the Luxembourg summit 12/1997) Phase 2 (1998-2009) “Tatra Tiger” • Unemployment halved • FDI Growth 1999-2002 reached 1100% • Catching up with EU accession (negotiations started 2 years later compared to CR) • Declining debt to GDP ratio • World’s 15th soundest banking system (2009), 6th among EU members (2013) • Ranked 32/155 in Doing Business (2006) • 2nd East European country to enter Eurozone Reasons behind • Bank bailout (12% GDP cost) & sale • Foreign investors allowed to enter troubled utilities sector (however no price deregulation, regulatory body independent only formally) • Improved fiscal and debt management – established Debt and Liquidity Management Agency, mid term budgeting, ESA 95 (accrual instead of cash) • Municipal budget reform (share on tax revenues instead of negotiations) • Labor code reform - more flexibility in lay-offs and reduced powers of trade unions • Compulsory private pension pillar established • Small improvements in legal disputes • Higher transparency - information right (2000), centralized (2000) electronic public procurement (2007), contracts published online (2011) • Bureaucracy improvements (business registry reforms, land registry reforms…) • Inflows of EU funds (however, especially later in the 2007-2013 period) • Generous tax breaks “Flat” Tax Reform: • Five rates of personal income tax (10%-38%) merged to 19%* • Corporate rate cleared of exemptions and cut from 25 % to 19 % • Two VAT rates (14 % and 20%) were unified at 19 % • Dividend tax, inheritance tax and gift tax were cancelled • Tax code simplified Phase 3 (2009-?) The Crisis • Reforms stopped in 2006 • One of the biggest crisis related GDP growth drops • Rising unemployment (among the highest in EU) • Quickly deteriorating public finance – export trap (GDP growth vs Revenue growth) • Falling competitiveness (32nd -> 49th) • Highest corporate tax rate in CEE (2013) - from 19% to 22% • Tax code more complicated (especially VAT compliance) • Bank tax among the highest in EU (30x German rate) • No improvements of extremely low legal framework efficiency (143/148 in GCI) Competition policy State aid broadly used by new members: 2000-2003 situation (excluding agriculture and transport) Annual average (mill. EUR) Malta 159 Cyprus 285 Czech Republic 1980 Poland 2140 Hungary 571 Slovenia 139 Slovakia 118 Lithuania 23 Latvia 34 Estonia 7 EU 10 average 5650 EU 15 average 3400 % of GDP 3,86 2,85 2,8 1,29 1,04 0,69 0,51 0,26 0,24 0,11 1,24 0,04 Competition policy • First chapter opened, one of the last (28th} closed, lot of problems • Missing conception (state aid was view as a standard policy tool) • Negotiations about sensitive exemptions (especially VW and US Steel – transitional period) • Way of funding state owned enterprises and funds (receiving large guarantees on debts) • First law version was failure • Illegal exemptions (forestry companies exclusion etc.) • Conflicting definition of SME – exempt from scrutiny • Mechanical copying (EU legal state exempted aid of 15 mill. ridiculous in Slovak reality) • Controversial Bureau of state Aid (f.1999) – competency problems, allowing illegal aid Competition policy • Bureau of state Aid closed 5/2004, competitions moved to Ministry of Finance/Commission • State aid more systematic and transparent, in respect of EU laws (however, full legal compliance with EU not until 2009) • State guaranteed commercial monopolies (post, telecommunication, TV…) turned into licensing system Investment stimulus Number of stimulus Stimulus sum (EUR) Planned new jobs Cost per job (EUR) 2002 1 12 746 465 582 21 901 2003 1 166 018 388 3 500 47 434 2004 18 313 402 342 8 880 35 293 2005 0 0 0 0 2006 48 357 887 436 15 214 23 524 2007 16 190 038 092 6 113 31 088 2008 5 42 667 673 2 199 19 403 2009 8 75 270 583 2 976 25 293 2010 11 39 067 024 1 350 28 939 2011 10 64 930 195 2 120 30 627 2012 10 121 191 498 2 412 50 245 2013 11 60 853 168 2 459 24 747 139 1 444 072 864 47 805 30 208 Sum Stimulus and Opportunity Cost Year Corporate tax rate Possible rate cut 2002 25% 24,7% 2003 25% 21,3% 2004 19% 13,9% 2005 19% 19,0% 2006 19% 14,7% 2007 19% 17,0% 2008 19% 18,6% 2009 19% 18,1% 2010 19% 18,6% 2011 19% 18,3% 2012 19% 17,6% 2013 23% 22,3% Average per job cost represents 5 years of net median wage (more in the early 2000’) Stimulus spent mainly in richer regions Below average unemployment Over average unemployment Number of stimulus Sum of stimulus Planned job creation 19 21 978 488 995 465 583 869 30 167 17 638 • “Chaining” of stimulus (Stimulus to keep jobs created with previous stimulus) • Relapse from “tax exemptions only” back to direct financial contributions • Inability to negotiate generally agreed rules (Goals often contradicting - Big? SME? New? Existing? Hi tech? # of jobs? In poor regions?) • Number of created greenfield industrial parks failed to attract investors, especially in poorer regions, resembles socialistic central planning (“One factory for every valley!”) • Aid in richer regions leads to buying competitor’s employees • State aid contributed to one-sided economy (Automotive, Electronics) • Everybody (fulfilling criteria) is entitled, but Ministry of finance decides projects to push to parliament Conclusion • Slovak economy was kickstarted within a short time, state aid extensively used • One of the most difficult chapters, government held to the state aid tools as long as possible • Still extensively used, but long term effect disputable Thank You! [email protected]